Re: [RT] UCLA scientific predictions....... future of USA stock market

["Kent Rollins" <kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Exactly correct, Ray.  If you had brought a 
space-alien in and given him a chart of the S&P starting at the top and 
asked him to forecast where it would go next, his forecast would eventually hit 
0 and then go negative.
 
And the alien wouldn't need to use "<FONT 
face="Times New Roman" size=3>extrapolation using the super-exponential 
power-law log-periodic function derived from a first order Landau expansion of 
the logarithm of the price" to develop that 
prediction.
 
Kent
 
 
----- Original Message ----- 
From: <A 
title=r.raffurty@xxxxxxxx href="mailto:r.raffurty@xxxxxxxx";>Ray Raffurty 

To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; <A 
title=SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx href="mailto:SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx";>SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx 
Sent: Tuesday, December 31, 2002 11:34 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] UCLA scientific predictions....... future of USA 
stock market

When I was in collage my friends and I made extra 
money designing and building light shows for rock bands.  There is a device 
called a Color Organ that splits the frequency of sounds, such as a band, and 
activates a different colored light as a note in the appropriate frequency is 
played, making the lights flash in time to the music.  At the time 
they where very expensive, so we just used random flashing lights, much like 
flashing Christmas tree lights.  After each show everyone would compliment 
us on how the lights flashed in exact time to the music.  Of course 
we knew they where just random flashes, the human mind superimposed the 
lights over the sound and convinced the viewer that they where 
synchronized.
 
Looking at the attached chart of <FONT 
face="Times New Roman" size=3>Sornette's prediction there is an obvious, but 
dubious correlation.  First all natural phenomenon such as this end at some 
point.  As anyone who has been following the market for more than 5 years 
knows, it is extremely difficult to predict when the pattern will change.  
It could be tomorrow, a month from now, a year from now, or yesterday.  We 
will not know until well after it happens and a new pattern is 
established.  Secondly while short term projections can have a high degree 
of accuracy long term projections do not.  The weather channel is extremely 
accurate for 3 or 5 days but much beyond that it becomes very 
difficult.
 
This is little more than a trend following 
indicator, and like all such indicators will work short periods.
 
Good luck and good trading,
 
Ray Raffurty
 
 
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From: 
  John Cappello 
  To: <A title=SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx 
  href="mailto:SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx";>SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx ; <A 
  title=REALTRADERS@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  href="mailto:REALTRADERS@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>REALTRADERS@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  
  Sent: Wednesday, January 01, 2003 1:28 
  PM
  Subject: [RT] UCLA scientific 
  predictions....... future of USA stock market
  If I follow this correctly we could have one more leg 
  up this year to give those of us with large cap mutual funds a chance to 
  exit at better prices, go into low risk securities and go 
  short.John------------------ Reply Separator 
  --------------------Originally From: <A 
  href="mailto:SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx";>SLAWEKP@xxxxxxxSubject: [RT] UCLA 
  scientific predictions....... future of USA stock marketDate: 
  01/01/2003 12:54pmRecommended New Year day  read.<A 
  href="http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/";>http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/Look 
  under Predictions:    
                               
  then The future of USA stock marketalso good papers under 
  Publications: Finance They specialize in Scientific Predictions of 
  Catastrophes.Since 50% of populations owns stocks directly or via 
  retirement, its popular subject to do research on.His 
  predictions are in agreement with Benner cycle low in 2003I mention on 
  this forum before SLAWEKTo unsubscribe from this group, send 
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