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When I was in collage my friends and I made extra
money designing and building light shows for rock bands. There is a device
called a Color Organ that splits the frequency of sounds, such as a band, and
activates a different colored light as a note in the appropriate frequency is
played, making the lights flash in time to the music. At the time
they where very expensive, so we just used random flashing lights, much like
flashing Christmas tree lights. After each show everyone would compliment
us on how the lights flashed in exact time to the music. Of course
we knew they where just random flashes, the human mind superimposed the
lights over the sound and convinced the viewer that they where
synchronized.
Looking at the attached chart of <FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3>Sornette's prediction there is an obvious, but
dubious correlation. First all natural phenomenon such as this end at some
point. As anyone who has been following the market for more than 5 years
knows, it is extremely difficult to predict when the pattern will change.
It could be tomorrow, a month from now, a year from now, or yesterday. We
will not know until well after it happens and a new pattern is
established. Secondly while short term projections can have a high degree
of accuracy long term projections do not. The weather channel is extremely
accurate for 3 or 5 days but much beyond that it becomes very
difficult.
This is little more than a trend following
indicator, and like all such indicators will work short periods.
Good luck and good trading,
Ray Raffurty
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
John Cappello
To: <A title=SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx
href="mailto:SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx">SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx ; <A
title=REALTRADERS@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:REALTRADERS@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx">REALTRADERS@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, January 01, 2003 1:28
PM
Subject: [RT] UCLA scientific
predictions....... future of USA stock market
If I follow this correctly we could have one more leg
up this year to give those of us with large cap mutual funds a chance to
exit at better prices, go into low risk securities and go
short.John------------------ Reply Separator
--------------------Originally From: <A
href="mailto:SLAWEKP@xxxxxxx">SLAWEKP@xxxxxxxSubject: [RT] UCLA
scientific predictions....... future of USA stock marketDate:
01/01/2003 12:54pmRecommended New Year day read.<A
href="http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/">http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/Look
under Predictions:
then The future of USA stock marketalso good papers under
Publications: Finance They specialize in Scientific Predictions of
Catastrophes.Since 50% of populations owns stocks directly or via
retirement, its popular subject to do research on.His
predictions are in agreement with Benner cycle low in 2003I mention on
this forum before SLAWEKTo unsubscribe from this group, send
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