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An additional driver -- the wheels of accountancy work slowly. I expect
that auditors will be more diligent this year end than in the past, and
that there is still more bad news to come out from companies either too
stupid or too devious to get the bad news out early.
Regards
DanG
EarlA wrote:> There is no new driver, just the same old driver, although
he is showing
> more signs of fatigue. I don't have my older "big picture" posts handy,
> however they should be in the archives for anyone interested. Bottom line is
> that very little has really changed in the big picture during the past
> several years to pave the way for economic and business prosperity. Yes,
> some of the air has come out, but not nearly enough to radically alter the
> bull market belief system of continuous, unlimited, and effortless
> prosperity for all. I will remain bearish until a lot more air has been let
> out of the equity, housing, credit, and consumption (especially import)
> markets.
>
> I have mentioned many times here that such a great bull market can only be
> corrected by a combination of price and time. I attach my chart of the S&P
> 500 showing time and price retracements ... the chart hasn't really changed
> much from the last time I posted it. Yes, the Fed and the politicians will
> do all they can to prolong the party, however prolonging the party will only
> make the hangover that much greater. Time and price in combination will not
> be denied!
>
> More specifically to the shorter term, I am sensing fatigue on the part of
> the consumer and on the part of the Fed. Further, fatigue is not just in the
> US, it is global and there is no other Great Consumer which is going to bail
> out the world by consuming excess goods and services. Even looking to the
> country receiving the best "hot growth" press, I am recently reading of
> severe limits on depositor withdrawals from the banking system ... it is
> never a good omen when the banking system is in trouble. That country is
> China! I also believe that military operations in the Middle East are going
> to be far more difficult and prolonged than widely believed. The people of
> Iraq and surrounding countries are just not going to kneel down in front of
> the US military even though they may not mount overt and concerted
> resistance. A home grown despot is always preferable to foreign rule and
> occupation. Make no mistake, the plans are to occupy Iraq and use it as a
> platform to carry out operations throughout the Middle East while pumping as
> much oil as possible.
>
> Getting really short term, the price charts are looking fatigued. Advisor
> sentiment has returned to extreme bullish (bearish) levels. The SP
> commercials are once again loading the boats with SP short positions. (The
> SP commercials very adroitly load their boats to the gunnels well in advance
> of the bear and then unloaded into the pre-election rally engineered by the
> policy makers.) Need I mention that there is still a lot of crap on the
> corporate books, especially outlandish pension plan projections? I figure we
> have anywhere from a few days to a month before the bear resumes in earnest.
>
> Bottom line? The next (interim) bear market bottom is probably 3-6 months
> away, although it is possible we could get a major bottom if the policy
> makers leave the market alone. The real bottom of the bear is some
> combination of 500+- SP points and 7 years away. The next major bull market
> is probably 15+- years away. This remains an extremely dangerous equity
> market suitable only for nimble traders.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "sue crew" <screwy@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, January 01, 2003 2:51 AM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Uncovered Puts
>
>
>
>>Earl what do you think will be the main driver for a big move down, in
>>equity markets.?
>>
>>cheers
>>
>>sue
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>EarlA wrote:
>>
>>
>>>The income sounds nice, however I don't envy your exposure to another
>
> major
>
>>>leg down and I believe it is coming and coming soon (within the next 3-6
>>>months). Many of these stocks appear to either be resuming major declines
>>>(e.g. S) or topping out in bearish formations (e.g. EXC). The only
>
> question
>
>>>on my table is "when" not "if". Keep your fingers crossed and hope you
>
> make
>
>>>it through January expiration.
>>>
>>>Earl
>
>
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>
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