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Two service sectors in total depression right now:
1) IT Consulting services
2) Advertising graphics services
ask anyone in those businesses...
how many more are out there ?
> -----Original Message-----
> From: ira [mailto:mr.ira@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Sunday, December 15, 2002 11:04 AM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: Re[2]: [RT] "feel the panic"....
>
>
> Rising or falling interest rates have little effect upon the market in a
> broad sense. If you can make a 10% return you will borrow at 5%,
> 6% or 7%.
> If you can't make any money you won't borrow at any percentage rate. You
> have had boom economies with high interest rates and dead
> economies with low
> interest rates.
>
> You have had great economies with high tax rates and poor
> economies with low
> tax rates. If you are not making any money you are not paying any taxes.
> If you are not paying any taxes, then the government isn't collecting any
> money to pay all those dead beats they have employed. Now they have to
> borrow to pay them or fire them. Unlike business downsizing, government
> forms another committee to study the matter. Now they have
> someplace to go
> and ask who is to blame for this dilemma.
>
> I don't know how we can be having a manufacturing slow down. What do
> manufacture today? Everything that I see on the shelves is
> manufactured in
> Asia or Europe. Look at what you buy at the market. Frozen orange juice
> from concentrate from Mexico and Brazil. Food in the markets from Brazil,
> Chile, Mexico and who knows where else. Lamb from Australia and flowers
> from Chile. Cantaloupe from Mexico and beef from Argentina. I
> know someone
> that has large orange orchards. He tells me that he can't sell
> his oranges
> here because of the price. He exports them to Japan.
>
> Today there are more people living on this earth then have died in the
> entire history of the world. Let us hope that they all need services
> because that appears to be all that we have to offer.
>
> What is the definition of a 3rd world country? One that imports
> manufactured goods, exports agriculture and is deeply in debt. Here we go
> again.
>
> Do I sound pessimistic? I wonder why? Ira.
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Sunday, December 15, 2002 7:37 AM
> Subject: RE: Re[2]: [RT] "feel the panic"....
>
>
> > No question, in the past, the deficits were not lethal.....
> > all I am saying is this time, it could be different.
> > The booming 90's provided the huge revenue tax dollars to fund an
> > ever-growing government...
> > at local, state, and national levels.
> > Now we are "stuck" with this huge behemoth called
> "government"....and with
> > an increased demand for $$$ and a decreased supply, the outlook for
> matching
> > revenues with expenses is poor.....
> > unless either government is cut-back (reduced demand) or supply is
> increased
> > (higher taxes).
> > Can anyone tell me which is going to happen ?
> > I don't think either one.
> > Potentially the government's appetite for funds <may> crowd-out the
> > corporate sector resulting in higher interest rates.....and
> higher cost of
> > doing business....resulting in reduced profits...and reduced economic
> > growth.
> >
> > Under this scenario, I can see how the stock market could be "flat" for
> the
> > next 10 years.
> > In that case, better follow John Cap's option selling technique if you
> want
> > to make any money.
> >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: Jim Johnson [mailto:jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxx]
> > > Sent: Saturday, December 14, 2002 11:09 PM
> > > To: Kent Rollins
> > > Subject: Re[2]: [RT] "feel the panic"....
> > >
> > >
> > > Hello Kent and Mark,
> > >
> > > You guys always suck me into these weekend debates. I'm w Kent on
> > > this one. The deficit issue is red herring. US deficit has been at
> > > small levels vs GDP in the last 30 years. What's more, national debt
> > > is a bit misleading as we do not account for national assets--schools,
> > > highways, various infrastructure. Research shows deficits (within the
> > > range we have had) have little or no effect on the economy. Witness
> > > the period 1980 thru 2000--or as I call it the Reagan expansion. He
> > > was beat up about increasing defense spending, increasing the deficit
> > > and cutting taxes. the sky was going to fall according to the Dem's.
> > > Son of gun--the deficit disappeared because of tax receipts at reduced
> > > rates and the Soviet Union tanked.
> > >
> > > On the inflation score, seems to me what we know as inflation is oil.
> > > In 1973 OPEC stuck it to the world and the cost of everything went up.
> > >
> > > It eventually got digested and costs began to increase at acceptable
> > > rates.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Best regards,
> > > Jim Johnson mailto:jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > > --
> > > Saturday, December 14, 2002, 2:37:13 PM, you wrote:
> > >
> > > >> over the DEFLATIONARY
> > > >> ("Hello, Japan !") PPI numbers coming out of the
> statistical mills ?
> > >
> > > >>Massive inflation is one cost to consider.....because without fiscal
> > >
> > > KR> So that's it? It either unrestrained deflation or massive
> inflation?
> > > KR> You're not sure which one but you're darned sure it's going
> > > to be one or the
> > > KR> other. I guess a moderate inflation environment is out of
> > > the question.
> > > KR> Either the Fed is out of ammo or they will have to "print
> > > money like crazy".
> > > KR> There's no in between. There's no option like
> > > KR>
> > > "print-a-lot-of-money-to-keep-us-from-tipping-into-deflation-and-t
> > > hen-slow-d
> > > KR> own-some".
> > >
> > > KR> FYI: The debt and deficits have been much higher as a percent
> > > of GDP than
> > > KR> they are right now and corporations were able to borrow just fine.
> > >
> > > KR> The real danger is consumer debt and the impact that may have
> > > on the banks
> > > KR> if the consumers crumble.
> > >
> > > KR> Considering that we have had only one depression in the last
> > > 100 years, the
> > > KR> odds are that we will not have another one. I don't believe "the
> > > KR> government" is the solution to very much. But I do believe
> > > that Greenspan
> > > KR> understands what levers to pull if things do get too far out
> > > of whack. And
> > > KR> I believe the Bush is going to press 100% on more massive tax
> > > cuts and maybe
> > > KR> even a major tax system overhaul. Tiny Daschle will do
> > > everything he can to
> > > KR> keep our taxes high but my money is on Bush.
> > >
> > > KR> But here's what I really want to know: if you believe all
> > > this doom and
> > > KR> gloom, what concrete actions are you taking in your personal
> > > life to prepare
> > > KR> for them? Seriously. Have you sold you house and loaded up
> > > on gold? Have
> > > KR> you cut all your personal debt? Are all your holdings in
> > > cash right now? I
> > > KR> want to know how seriously you believe in what you are
> > > saying, even though
> > > KR> you're saying two completely opposite things.
> > >
> > > KR> Kent
> > >
> > >
> > > KR> ----- Original Message -----
> > > KR> From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > KR> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > KR> Sent: Saturday, December 14, 2002 1:00 PM
> > > KR> Subject: RE: [RT] "feel the panic"....
> > >
> > >
> > > KR> So you are confident the government will solve the problem then ?
> > > KR> Maybe so, but at what cost ?
> > > KR> Massive inflation is one cost to consider.....because
> without fiscal
> > > KR> restraint, deficits will balloon to incredible
> proportions......and
> > > KR> corporations will not be able to borrow at a reasonable cost.
> > > KR> The only course of action remaining will be to print money
> > > like crazy....
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > >> -----Original Message-----
> > > >> From: Kent Rollins [mailto:kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > > >> Sent: Friday, December 13, 2002 10:01 PM
> > > >> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >> Subject: Re: [RT] "feel the panic"....
> > > >>
> > > >>
> > > >> Simms, have you sold all your material goods and moved to a
> > > shack in the
> > > >> mountains? We had a real estate crisis in the late 80's too. We
> > > >> formed the
> > > >> Resolution Trust Corporation and resolved the problem in a few
> > > >> years. Japan
> > > >> is still thinking about getting ready to talk about studying some
> > > >> suggestions the Americans keep making for one day developing a
> > > >> plan to begin
> > > >> to start considering a lunch meeting on their problem. Please tell
> me
> > > >> you're living in a shack.
> > > >>
> > > >> Kent
> > > >>
> > > >>
> > > >> ----- Original Message -----
> > > >> From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > >> To: "RealtradersList" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > >> Sent: Friday, December 13, 2002 4:15 PM
> > > >> Subject: [RT] "feel the panic"....
> > > >>
> > > >>
> > > >> Couldn't you just "feel" the market getting the wind knocked out
> > > >> of it today
> > > >> over the DEFLATIONARY
> > > >> ("Hello, Japan !") PPI numbers coming out of the
> statistical mills ?
> > > >>
> > > >> Non-healthcare related businesses have no pricing power....
> > > >> and no volume revenue growth....
> > > >> all they can do is cut payroll and cut costs.
> > > >>
> > > >> Ultimate solution is to cut government spending and reduce
> government
> > > >> size....so that taxes can be reduced.
> > > >>
> > > >> Yeah, right. NOT IN THIS LIFETIME.
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > KR> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > KR> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
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> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
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> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
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> >
> >
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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