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> over the DEFLATIONARY
> ("Hello, Japan !") PPI numbers coming out of the statistical mills ?
>Massive inflation is one cost to consider.....because without fiscal
So that's it? It either unrestrained deflation or massive inflation?
You're not sure which one but you're darned sure it's going to be one or the
other. I guess a moderate inflation environment is out of the question.
Either the Fed is out of ammo or they will have to "print money like crazy".
There's no in between. There's no option like
"print-a-lot-of-money-to-keep-us-from-tipping-into-deflation-and-then-slow-d
own-some".
FYI: The debt and deficits have been much higher as a percent of GDP than
they are right now and corporations were able to borrow just fine.
The real danger is consumer debt and the impact that may have on the banks
if the consumers crumble.
Considering that we have had only one depression in the last 100 years, the
odds are that we will not have another one. I don't believe "the
government" is the solution to very much. But I do believe that Greenspan
understands what levers to pull if things do get too far out of whack. And
I believe the Bush is going to press 100% on more massive tax cuts and maybe
even a major tax system overhaul. Tiny Daschle will do everything he can to
keep our taxes high but my money is on Bush.
But here's what I really want to know: if you believe all this doom and
gloom, what concrete actions are you taking in your personal life to prepare
for them? Seriously. Have you sold you house and loaded up on gold? Have
you cut all your personal debt? Are all your holdings in cash right now? I
want to know how seriously you believe in what you are saying, even though
you're saying two completely opposite things.
Kent
----- Original Message -----
From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, December 14, 2002 1:00 PM
Subject: RE: [RT] "feel the panic"....
So you are confident the government will solve the problem then ?
Maybe so, but at what cost ?
Massive inflation is one cost to consider.....because without fiscal
restraint, deficits will balloon to incredible proportions......and
corporations will not be able to borrow at a reasonable cost.
The only course of action remaining will be to print money like crazy....
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Kent Rollins [mailto:kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Friday, December 13, 2002 10:01 PM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: [RT] "feel the panic"....
>
>
> Simms, have you sold all your material goods and moved to a shack in the
> mountains? We had a real estate crisis in the late 80's too. We
> formed the
> Resolution Trust Corporation and resolved the problem in a few
> years. Japan
> is still thinking about getting ready to talk about studying some
> suggestions the Americans keep making for one day developing a
> plan to begin
> to start considering a lunch meeting on their problem. Please tell me
> you're living in a shack.
>
> Kent
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: "RealtradersList" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Friday, December 13, 2002 4:15 PM
> Subject: [RT] "feel the panic"....
>
>
> Couldn't you just "feel" the market getting the wind knocked out
> of it today
> over the DEFLATIONARY
> ("Hello, Japan !") PPI numbers coming out of the statistical mills ?
>
> Non-healthcare related businesses have no pricing power....
> and no volume revenue growth....
> all they can do is cut payroll and cut costs.
>
> Ultimate solution is to cut government spending and reduce government
> size....so that taxes can be reduced.
>
> Yeah, right. NOT IN THIS LIFETIME.
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