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----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, November 09, 2002 10:48 PM
Subject: 11/09 10:13P (RT) ANALYSIS-GDP data may show Japan recovery
on last legs
<FONT face=Arial color=navy
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">11/09
10:13P (RT) ANALYSIS-GDP data may show Japan recovery on last
legs
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Story
1151 (I/JP, I/ASIA, I/MCE, I/ECI)
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> By Stuart
Grudgings
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> TOKYO, Nov 10 (Reuters) -
Yoshiharu Taniguchi is a
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">disappointed
man.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> A rapid rebound in Japan's
economy this year was supposed to
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">help
fire sales of the high-tech ceramic chips that his
company
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">is a
world leader in. It never happened.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> "Our expectations proved to
be wrong," the 66-year old
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">president
of Nippon Ceramic said from his western Japan
office.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> "We had expected a rapid
V-shaped recovery, but it's been
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">much
more gentle."
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> If economists are right,
Taniguchi should prepare for more
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">disappointment
in the months ahead.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> Even the mild recovery now
seems to be on its last legs as a
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">global
slowdown hits exports and consumers wrap up for a
chilly
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">winter
of falling incomes and financial anxiety.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> Gross domestic product
figures for July to September out on
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Wednesday
are expected to show the economy inched ahead, but
many
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">economists
warn that could be the last growth for some
time.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> A fourth recession in a
decade may have already begun, adding
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">to the
pressure on Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi as
he
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">struggles
to reform the economy while keeping it
afloat.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> "This is about as good as
it's going to get during this
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">cycle,"
said Jeffrey Young, an economist at Nikko Salomon
in
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Tokyo,
who expects the economy to have grown by 0.5 percent
in
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">July-September
but then shrink in the next two quarters.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> A group of 25 analysts
polled by Reuters turned in an average
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">forecast
of a 0.4 percent rise from the previous quarter,
slower
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">than the
0.6 percent rise in April-June, when Japan
scrambled
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">clear of
its worst recession since the war.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> DROPPING THE
BATON
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> That recovery was fuelled by
a strong rise in exports -- and
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">in turn
industrial production -- that now appears to have
stalled
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">as the
United States, Japan's biggest export market,
stumbles.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> Net exports are expected to
have made a negative contribution
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">to GDP
in July-September for the first time in a year,
and
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">economists
are hard-pressed to find an area of Japan's
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">deflation-racked
economy that can pick up the baton of
growth.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> "The pause in exports has
come at rather an unfortunate time,
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">just
when it looks as if domestic demand was starting to pick
up.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">The risk
is that it chokes that off prematurely," said
Richard
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Jerram,
an economist at ING.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> Surprising resilience in
long-stagnant consumer spending in
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">recent
months may be the only thing keeping the recovery
on
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">track.
Household spending leapt 5.4 percent in September, for
a
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">fourth
straight year-on-year gain.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> Analysts have suggested that
stingy consumers may have
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">finally
started to spend because they see little point in
putting
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">their
money into the depressed stock market or the shaky
banks.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> But most economists are
sceptical that consumer confidence,
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">which is
already showing signs of faltering, can survive a
winter
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">of
rising job insecurity and falling incomes, with the
prospect
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">of war
in the Gulf to boot.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> "If the income numbers we're
getting are anywhere close to
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">the
truth, it's going to be difficult for consumption to
keep
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">defying
gravity...It's pretty ugly," said Young.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> Unemployment is stuck near
record highs and job insecurity is
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">rising
as the government prepares to implement recently
unveiled
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">plans to
tighten the screws on banks and troubled
firms.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> Nor is life getting any
easier for those with jobs. Annual
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">winter
bonuses are expected to see a record fall of around
six
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">percent
as firms step up their cost-cutting drive.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> FACTORY
SLOWDOWN
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> Output at Japan's factories
and refineries is also showing
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">signs of
tailing off as industrial giants like Fujitsu Ltd
and
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Hitachi
Ltd feel the chill from falling exports and cut
their
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">earnings
targets for this business year.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> Another Reuters poll, this
time of 20 economists, forecast a
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">5.2
percent monthly rise in September core machinery orders,
a
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">forerunner
of capital spending that will be released on
Monday.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> But rather than marking a
recovery in firms' confidence, the
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">rise
would only be a technical rebound from a heavy fall
in
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">August.
For the whole third quarter, the government
estimates
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">machinery
orders fell 3.9 percent.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> One positive sign is that
firms' inventories remain near
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">14-year
lows, but the export slowdown is threatening this,
too.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> Economists will be watching
closely this week for evidence
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">that
firms are starting to build up stocks again,
signalling
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">weakening
demand and a further slowdown in output in the
future.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> JUST
RESTING?
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> Not all analysts are
prepared to write Japan off as headed
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">inexorably
for recession.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> "So far at least, it's been
more of a loss of the momentum
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">that
we'd been building in the first half rather than an
actual
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">downturn...There's
a sense we've levelled off," said David
Cohen
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">of
S&P/MMS International in Singapore.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> ING's Jerram noted, however,
that a pause followed by renewed
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">growth
has been a rare event in Japan. He said the last time
was
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">in 1995,
when the Kobe earthquake, a strong yen and
fiscal
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">tightening
combined to temporarily halt a recovery.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> One thing most agree on is
that the economy will get little
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">help
from policymakers, who must have looked enviously at
the
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">United
States last week when the Federal Reserve slashed
interest
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">rates in
an effort to kick-start growth.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> Japanese interest rates are
already close to zero and the
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">huge
public debt precludes any big fiscal stimulus, while
the
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">government's
recent plan to speed up the disposal of bad
bank
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">loans
disappointed those who had been looking for decisive
action
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">to end
the policy paralysis that has hobbled growth for a
decade.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> ((Stuart Grudgings, Tokyo
Newsroom +81-3 3432 8656
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> stuart.grudgings@xxxxxxxxxxx))
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt"><SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> REUTERS
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">Rtr
22:13 11-09-02
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