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All of what you say is true, however demand will fall when the policy makers
eventually prove to be unable to keep propping the economy with credit. The
credit bubble is huge and I believe its life is numbered in months ... at
most another 1-2 years.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "ira" <mr.ira@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, November 09, 2002 8:39 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] GEN: THE FED
> Who says that we haven't had inflation. It didn't happen in just one
year.
> Can you buy a new home in California for $26,000? No. That is what my
first
> home cost. It is now selling in the resale market for over $750,000. Can
you
> buy a Corvette for $3600? That is what my first Vette cost new. Can you
> buy anything, except a computer, CD player or other electronic gadget for
> less then you could 5 years ago. Look at health care costs, autos,
homes,
> food, clothing, shoes, a ride on a bus, train or plane, hotel and motel
> rates, restaurant meals, except Burger King and that ilk, even Denny's
> raised its prices. When you govern the costs that contribute to inflation
> you govern its rate of growth. Inflation may not be higher according to
> their numbers, but the cost of living is skyrocketing according to my
check
> book.
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Charles Meyer" <chaze@xxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Saturday, November 09, 2002 3:11 AM
> Subject: [RT] GEN: THE FED
>
>
> > Norm-
> >
> > I have always remained confused about one issue. IF what you say is
true
> > about the
> > accelerating depreciation of the dollar; can you explain why the problem
> > seems to be one of
> > deflation and not inflation? I think your ideas dovetail with an
article
> > about the FED which I will post after sending this e-mail. If the FED
> does
> > indeed have all this power; why haven't we
> > experienced any runaway inflation? If one accepts all what we are told
> > about the FED it
> > seems to me runaway inflation would be inevitable. Yeah; we had
> > inflationary problems during
> > the 70's but the FED has been around now for 89 years.
> >
> > Confusingly,
> > chas (:-)
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Norman Winski <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Friday, November 08, 2002 9:38 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] The Answer my friend is blowing in the spin
> >
> >
> > > CM,
> > > I forgot to answer your question about the Fed. In the long run, the
> Fed
> > > is irrelevant. The business cycle has not and will never be suspended.
> > The
> > > Fed, like any quasi monopoly, tries to take credit for
> > > having control over what it wishes it had control over but doesn't
> > control.
> > > The Fed couldn't cut interest rates if the money market wasn't
willing.
> > The
> > > only difference the Fed has made since it began operating in 1914 is
an
> > > accelerated rate of depreciation of the value of the US dollar.
> > >
> > > Regards,
> > >
> > > Norman
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > >
> > > > > Norm-
> > > > >
> > > > > Any chance you can tell us why the 1973-1895 period of U.S.
economic
> > > > history
> > > > > would tend to be
> > > > > the parallel to the current economy? Tks for any comments.
> > Especially
> > > > > since this was before the
> > > > > creation of the Fed.
> > > > >
> > > > > chas
> > > > >
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: Norman Winski <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > Sent: Friday, November 08, 2002 8:17 PM
> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] The Answer my friend is blowing in the spin
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > From: "sue crew" <screwy@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > Sent: Friday, November 08, 2002 8:50 PM
> > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Answer my friend
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > Earl,
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > what is your view of things at the moment.? The USA to me
looks
> > like
> > > > the
> > > > > > > big titantic sinking and nothing is going to help.
> > > > > > > Monetary policy will be ineffective - and close to zero just
> like
> > > > Japan.
> > > > > > > Everyone due to Superfunds are heavily weighted to equities,
the
> > > > ageing
> > > > > > > population and risk aversion will drive markets in my mind,
and
> > will
> > > > > > > particularly drive equity markets down. The information ratio
> will
> > > > > > > become the new focus.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Cash and bonds will rule for the next 15 years.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > NW: Why would you want cash when there is a negative real
interest
> > > rate?
> > > > > > Under this scenario,
> > > > > > money will depreciate in value. As for the mythical deflation,
> > anyone
> > > > > notice
> > > > > > the CRB is up 22% since one year ago? So where is the deflation?
> > It's
> > > > in
> > > > > > paper assets such as stocks. Yes, this situation should continue
> for
> > > > many
> > > > > > more years. War and cheap money makes for an excellent
commodity
> > > > market,
> > > > > > which is where I have had my money for the past year and I
> strongly
> > > > > > recommended to this list to go one year go. War and cheap money
> > also
> > > > > means
> > > > > > deflation or shrinkage for stock valuations which means even
> during
> > an
> > > > > > economic recovery, the stock market will underperform the
> underlying
> > > > > > fundamentals. Look at the Nikkei for the past decade. You can
> see
> > it
> > > > was
> > > > > a
> > > > > > loser's game for the investor and at best a game strictly for
> short
> > > term
> > > > > > traders. If you don't want to work too hard, wait for the next
> > > > commodity
> > > > > > fire sale and then buy, buy, buy. A study of the 1873-1895
period
> > in
> > > US
> > > > > > economic history should be enlightening. Study the life and
> > business
> > > > > > strategy of Andrew Carnegie.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Buy Buy,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Norman
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
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> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
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> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
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> > > > >
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> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
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