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You are starting to see what happened in the 70s. The funds are starting to
fall one after the other. How many will survive? Just another area of less
demand in the system.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, November 08, 2002 9:31 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] The Answer my friend is blowing in the spin
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Rakesh Sahgal" <rakeshsahgal@xxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Friday, November 08, 2002 11:31 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] The Answer my friend is blowing in the spin
>
>
> > NW,
> >
> > Given your contention that the idiot's market is over
> > and skill and knowledge will rule the roost,
>
> NW: It's not an "either or" but rather degeee of idiot. The current
ruling
> idiots are probably more knowledgeable than the idiots that near the top
of
> the bubble thought they could throw a dart and make a fortune. However,
> gradually and before this cycle is over just about everyone will be
> discredited. As the cycle progreeses, the idiot elimination will work its
> way up the food chain with the market demanding ever more perfect
knowledge
> and each level failing to meet the markets' requirements. Every dog has
his
> day. This is merely a mirror image of what happened during the 80s and
90s
> where each year it took less market knowledge to be successful until just
> before the top of the bubble the absolute idiots ruled the roost.
>
> Regards,
>
> Norman
>
> I would
> > appreciate your thoughts on the fate of the ANALYST
> > menace that currently plagues the global markets
> > mouthing their inanities on CNBC. Are they going to
> > fade away from the scene, having become discredited
> > and irrelevant, or not? If no, what will happen to the
> > huge money flows that they are able to influence, will
> > these money flows not impact market direction?
> >
> > Rakesh
> >
> >
> > --- Norman Winski <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Charles Meyer" <chaze@xxxxxxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Friday, November 08, 2002 9:47 PM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] The Answer my friend is blowing in
> > > the spin
> > >
> > >
> > > > Norm-
> > > >
> > > > Any chance you can tell us why the 1873-1895
> > > period of U.S. economic
> > > history
> > > > would tend to be
> > > > the parallel to the current economy?
> > >
> > >
> > > We are loosely following the K-Wave cycle pattern
> > > with the filtering
> > > Elliott Wave rule of alternation.
> > > Therefore, don't excpect a sharp 1929-1932 stock
> > > market crash, but rather a
> > > long grinding slow growth era with periodic boomlets
> > > and busts such as
> > > 1873 - 1895. During this period Carnegie made his
> > > fortune from having the
> > > right business strategy and not from being any
> > > genius in making steel. This
> > > type of enviroment is great for traders and market
> > > times and lousy for long
> > > term buy and hold investors.
> > > The top of the stock market bubble was also the top
> > > of the idiot investor
> > > cycle. Now the pendulum is swinging the opposite
> > > direction where more and
> > > more knowledge of the market will be required to
> > > make money. The absolute
> > > amatuer idiots have mostly already been destroyed.
> > > The cycle, over the next
> > > 10-20 years, will work its way up the investment
> > > food chain to clean house.
> > > It is already becoming evident that 99% of the money
> > > managers can't out
> > > perform the S&P 500. When the public catches on to
> > > this, these guys will
> > > find their true level of proficiency, selling hot
> > > dogs on a street corner.
> > > Read about the bust that followed the "Go Go 60s"
> > > and you will see what I
> > > mean. What was it that Will Shakespeare said? "The
> > > play's the same, only the
> > > players change"?
> > >
> > > Cheers,
> > >
> > > Norman
> > >
> > > Regards,
> > >
> > > Norman
> > >
> > > Tks for any comments. Especially
> > > > since this was before the
> > > > creation of the Fed.
> > > >
> > > > chas
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: Norman Winski <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Friday, November 08, 2002 8:17 PM
> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] The Answer my friend is blowing
> > > in the spin
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: "sue crew" <screwy@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > Sent: Friday, November 08, 2002 8:50 PM
> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Answer my friend
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > Earl,
> > > > > >
> > > > > > what is your view of things at the moment.?
> > > The USA to me looks like
> > > the
> > > > > > big titantic sinking and nothing is going to
> > > help.
> > > > > > Monetary policy will be ineffective - and
> > > close to zero just like
> > > Japan.
> > > > > > Everyone due to Superfunds are heavily
> > > weighted to equities, the
> > > ageing
> > > > > > population and risk aversion will drive
> > > markets in my mind, and will
> > > > > > particularly drive equity markets down. The
> > > information ratio will
> > > > > > become the new focus.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Cash and bonds will rule for the next 15
> > > years.
> > > > >
> > > > > NW: Why would you want cash when there is a
> > > negative real interest rate?
> > > > > Under this scenario,
> > > > > money will depreciate in value. As for the
> > > mythical deflation, anyone
> > > > notice
> > > > > the CRB is up 22% since one year ago? So where
> > > is the deflation? It's
> > > in
> > > > > paper assets such as stocks. Yes, this situation
> > > should continue for
> > > many
> > > > > more years. War and cheap money makes for an
> > > excellent commodity
> > > market,
> > > > > which is where I have had my money for the past
> > > year and I strongly
> > > > > recommended to this list to go one year go. War
> > > and cheap money also
> > > > means
> > > > > deflation or shrinkage for stock valuations
> > > which means even during an
> > > > > economic recovery, the stock market will
> > > underperform the underlying
> > > > > fundamentals. Look at the Nikkei for the past
> > > decade. You can see it
> > > was
> > > > a
> > > > > loser's game for the investor and at best a game
> > > strictly for short term
> > > > > traders. If you don't want to work too hard,
> > > wait for the next
> > > commodity
> > > > > fire sale and then buy, buy, buy. A study of
> > > the 1873-1895 period in US
> > > > > economic history should be enlightening. Study
> > > the life and business
> > > > > strategy of Andrew Carnegie.
> > > > >
> > > > > Buy Buy,
> > > > >
> > > > > Norman
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
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> > > > > >
> > > > > >
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> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
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