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Norm-
I have always remained confused about one issue. IF what you say is true
about the
accelerating depreciation of the dollar; can you explain why the problem
seems to be one of
deflation and not inflation? I think your ideas dovetail with an article
about the FED which I will post after sending this e-mail. If the FED does
indeed have all this power; why haven't we
experienced any runaway inflation? If one accepts all what we are told
about the FED it
seems to me runaway inflation would be inevitable. Yeah; we had
inflationary problems during
the 70's but the FED has been around now for 89 years.
Confusingly,
chas (:-)
----- Original Message -----
From: Norman Winski <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, November 08, 2002 9:38 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] The Answer my friend is blowing in the spin
> CM,
> I forgot to answer your question about the Fed. In the long run, the Fed
> is irrelevant. The business cycle has not and will never be suspended.
The
> Fed, like any quasi monopoly, tries to take credit for
> having control over what it wishes it had control over but doesn't
control.
> The Fed couldn't cut interest rates if the money market wasn't willing.
The
> only difference the Fed has made since it began operating in 1914 is an
> accelerated rate of depreciation of the value of the US dollar.
>
> Regards,
>
> Norman
>
>
>
> >
> > > Norm-
> > >
> > > Any chance you can tell us why the 1973-1895 period of U.S. economic
> > history
> > > would tend to be
> > > the parallel to the current economy? Tks for any comments.
Especially
> > > since this was before the
> > > creation of the Fed.
> > >
> > > chas
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: Norman Winski <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Friday, November 08, 2002 8:17 PM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] The Answer my friend is blowing in the spin
> > >
> > >
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "sue crew" <screwy@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Friday, November 08, 2002 8:50 PM
> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] Answer my friend
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > Earl,
> > > > >
> > > > > what is your view of things at the moment.? The USA to me looks
like
> > the
> > > > > big titantic sinking and nothing is going to help.
> > > > > Monetary policy will be ineffective - and close to zero just like
> > Japan.
> > > > > Everyone due to Superfunds are heavily weighted to equities, the
> > ageing
> > > > > population and risk aversion will drive markets in my mind, and
will
> > > > > particularly drive equity markets down. The information ratio will
> > > > > become the new focus.
> > > > >
> > > > > Cash and bonds will rule for the next 15 years.
> > > >
> > > > NW: Why would you want cash when there is a negative real interest
> rate?
> > > > Under this scenario,
> > > > money will depreciate in value. As for the mythical deflation,
anyone
> > > notice
> > > > the CRB is up 22% since one year ago? So where is the deflation?
It's
> > in
> > > > paper assets such as stocks. Yes, this situation should continue for
> > many
> > > > more years. War and cheap money makes for an excellent commodity
> > market,
> > > > which is where I have had my money for the past year and I strongly
> > > > recommended to this list to go one year go. War and cheap money
also
> > > means
> > > > deflation or shrinkage for stock valuations which means even during
an
> > > > economic recovery, the stock market will underperform the underlying
> > > > fundamentals. Look at the Nikkei for the past decade. You can see
it
> > was
> > > a
> > > > loser's game for the investor and at best a game strictly for short
> term
> > > > traders. If you don't want to work too hard, wait for the next
> > commodity
> > > > fire sale and then buy, buy, buy. A study of the 1873-1895 period
in
> US
> > > > economic history should be enlightening. Study the life and
business
> > > > strategy of Andrew Carnegie.
> > > >
> > > > Buy Buy,
> > > >
> > > > Norman
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
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> > > > >
> > > >
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> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
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