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CM,
I forgot to answer your question about the Fed. In the long run, the Fed
is irrelevant. The business cycle has not and will never be suspended. The
Fed, like any quasi monopoly, tries to take credit for
having control over what it wishes it had control over but doesn't control.
The Fed couldn't cut interest rates if the money market wasn't willing. The
only difference the Fed has made since it began operating in 1914 is an
accelerated rate of depreciation of the value of the US dollar.
Regards,
Norman
>
> > Norm-
> >
> > Any chance you can tell us why the 1973-1895 period of U.S. economic
> history
> > would tend to be
> > the parallel to the current economy? Tks for any comments. Especially
> > since this was before the
> > creation of the Fed.
> >
> > chas
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Norman Winski <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Friday, November 08, 2002 8:17 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] The Answer my friend is blowing in the spin
> >
> >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "sue crew" <screwy@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Friday, November 08, 2002 8:50 PM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] Answer my friend
> > >
> > >
> > > > Earl,
> > > >
> > > > what is your view of things at the moment.? The USA to me looks like
> the
> > > > big titantic sinking and nothing is going to help.
> > > > Monetary policy will be ineffective - and close to zero just like
> Japan.
> > > > Everyone due to Superfunds are heavily weighted to equities, the
> ageing
> > > > population and risk aversion will drive markets in my mind, and will
> > > > particularly drive equity markets down. The information ratio will
> > > > become the new focus.
> > > >
> > > > Cash and bonds will rule for the next 15 years.
> > >
> > > NW: Why would you want cash when there is a negative real interest
rate?
> > > Under this scenario,
> > > money will depreciate in value. As for the mythical deflation, anyone
> > notice
> > > the CRB is up 22% since one year ago? So where is the deflation? It's
> in
> > > paper assets such as stocks. Yes, this situation should continue for
> many
> > > more years. War and cheap money makes for an excellent commodity
> market,
> > > which is where I have had my money for the past year and I strongly
> > > recommended to this list to go one year go. War and cheap money also
> > means
> > > deflation or shrinkage for stock valuations which means even during an
> > > economic recovery, the stock market will underperform the underlying
> > > fundamentals. Look at the Nikkei for the past decade. You can see it
> was
> > a
> > > loser's game for the investor and at best a game strictly for short
term
> > > traders. If you don't want to work too hard, wait for the next
> commodity
> > > fire sale and then buy, buy, buy. A study of the 1873-1895 period in
US
> > > economic history should be enlightening. Study the life and business
> > > strategy of Andrew Carnegie.
> > >
> > > Buy Buy,
> > >
> > > Norman
> > >
> > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
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> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
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> > >
> > >
> > >
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> > >
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
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> >
> >
> >
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http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
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