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----- Original Message -----
From: "Charles Meyer" <chaze@xxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, November 08, 2002 9:47 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] The Answer my friend is blowing in the spin
> Norm-
>
> Any chance you can tell us why the 1873-1895 period of U.S. economic
history
> would tend to be
> the parallel to the current economy?
We are loosely following the K-Wave cycle pattern with the filtering
Elliott Wave rule of alternation.
Therefore, don't excpect a sharp 1929-1932 stock market crash, but rather a
long grinding slow growth era with periodic boomlets and busts such as
1873 - 1895. During this period Carnegie made his fortune from having the
right business strategy and not from being any genius in making steel. This
type of enviroment is great for traders and market times and lousy for long
term buy and hold investors.
The top of the stock market bubble was also the top of the idiot investor
cycle. Now the pendulum is swinging the opposite direction where more and
more knowledge of the market will be required to make money. The absolute
amatuer idiots have mostly already been destroyed. The cycle, over the next
10-20 years, will work its way up the investment food chain to clean house.
It is already becoming evident that 99% of the money managers can't out
perform the S&P 500. When the public catches on to this, these guys will
find their true level of proficiency, selling hot dogs on a street corner.
Read about the bust that followed the "Go Go 60s" and you will see what I
mean. What was it that Will Shakespeare said? "The play's the same, only the
players change"?
Cheers,
Norman
Regards,
Norman
Tks for any comments. Especially
> since this was before the
> creation of the Fed.
>
> chas
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Norman Winski <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Friday, November 08, 2002 8:17 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] The Answer my friend is blowing in the spin
>
>
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "sue crew" <screwy@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Friday, November 08, 2002 8:50 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] Answer my friend
> >
> >
> > > Earl,
> > >
> > > what is your view of things at the moment.? The USA to me looks like
the
> > > big titantic sinking and nothing is going to help.
> > > Monetary policy will be ineffective - and close to zero just like
Japan.
> > > Everyone due to Superfunds are heavily weighted to equities, the
ageing
> > > population and risk aversion will drive markets in my mind, and will
> > > particularly drive equity markets down. The information ratio will
> > > become the new focus.
> > >
> > > Cash and bonds will rule for the next 15 years.
> >
> > NW: Why would you want cash when there is a negative real interest rate?
> > Under this scenario,
> > money will depreciate in value. As for the mythical deflation, anyone
> notice
> > the CRB is up 22% since one year ago? So where is the deflation? It's
in
> > paper assets such as stocks. Yes, this situation should continue for
many
> > more years. War and cheap money makes for an excellent commodity
market,
> > which is where I have had my money for the past year and I strongly
> > recommended to this list to go one year go. War and cheap money also
> means
> > deflation or shrinkage for stock valuations which means even during an
> > economic recovery, the stock market will underperform the underlying
> > fundamentals. Look at the Nikkei for the past decade. You can see it
was
> a
> > loser's game for the investor and at best a game strictly for short term
> > traders. If you don't want to work too hard, wait for the next
commodity
> > fire sale and then buy, buy, buy. A study of the 1873-1895 period in US
> > economic history should be enlightening. Study the life and business
> > strategy of Andrew Carnegie.
> >
> > Buy Buy,
> >
> > Norman
> >
> >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
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> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
> >
>
>
>
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>
>
>
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>
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