|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
regarding below:
"q.. Markets form their tops in violence; markets form their lows in quiet
conditions."
HUH ? Totally contrary to the VIX concept.....and does not follow past
history...at all.
Many bottoms coincide with large increases in volatility....which can
correlate with violence.
Maybe he has this one reversed.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: John Cappello [mailto:jvc689@xxxxxxx]
> Sent: Sunday, October 20, 2002 12:33 AM
> To: Realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Cc: MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [RT] Trend Trader's Strategy -- Strategy Lab - MSN Money
>
>
> Please scroll all the way down for what he is doing. He is up almost
> 60% using a Technofundamental Investment Strategy which he esplains.
>
> John
>
>
> Trend Trader's Strategy -- Strategy Lab - MSN Money
> MSN Home | My MSN | Hotmail | Search |
> Shopping | Money | People & Chat
>
>
> Search the Web
>
> Powered by MSN Search
>
>
>
>
>
> Home Investing Banking Planning
> Taxes Money Plus Help
>
> Investing Home Portfolio Markets Stocks
> Funds Insight Brokers CNBC TV
>
>
> MSN Money Insight
> Jubak's Journal
> SuperModels
> Start Investing
> Strategy Lab
> Summary
>
> GARP
>
> Technical Tactician
>
> Value Doc
>
> Special Value
>
> Trend Trader
>
> Fund Upgrader
>
> Company Focus
> Mutual Funds
> The Speculator
> Special Reports
>
> Other Views
> Contrarian Chronicles
> TheStreet.com
>
> Resources
> Article Index
> Step-by-Step Guides
>
>
>
> Related Links
> Market Dispatches
> Stock Picks
> Message Boards
> Trend Trader Richard Rhodes
>
> Journal
> Strategy
> Portfolio
> Transactions
> Biography
> Richard develops a macroeconomic view of market trends
> and trades the stocks he believes will fundamentally benefit from
> major rallies and declines.
> Post a message for Richard
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Trend Trader Lab Performance
> Round 7 $158,461.86
>
> Lab Summary Page
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Web Site
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------
> The Rhodes Report
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Portfolio
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------
> Track Richard's investments on Trend Trader's portfolio
> page.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Journal Entries
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------
> Follow every buy and sell Trend Trader's Transactions
> page.
> Strategy
> If there is anything I have learned in 18 years of
> trading, it is that simple works best. Those who need to rely upon
> complex stochastics, linear-weighted moving averages, smoothing
> techniques, Fibonacci numbers, etc., usually find that they have so
> many things rolling around in their heads that they cannot make a
> rational decision. One technique says buy; another says sell. Another
> says sit tight, while another says add to the trade. It sounds like a
> cliché, but simple methods work best.
> Discuss the latest trades
> on the Strategy Lab
> message board
>
>
>
> Therefore, my trading strategy is to analyze fundamental
> and technical factors to determine whether a long, short or a
> sideline position is warranted in the market. Fundamentally, I
> develop a macroeconomic view of the world using Federal Reserve
> interest-rate policy, world economic trends and currency movements.
> This allows me to use my fundamental beliefs as a backdrop against
> which to apply technical analysis. If I perceive that fundamentals
> are bullish, then I am poised to go long the markets if my simple
> technical indicators tell me to do so. Conversely, if the
> fundamentals are bearish, I trade from the short side when my
> indicators tell me to do so.
>
> Those simple technical resources are simply log charts,
> common trend lines and other well-known chart patterns. To supplement
> this, I use various term moving averages dependent upon the equity
> under analysis, for I believe that all equities beat to their own
> drum, thus a one-moving-average-fits-all does not necessary apply.
> Also, my favorite oscillator is the 20-day stochastic, for it is
> longer term in nature and captures the intermediate trends rather
> well.
>
> In addition, and more importantly, I use trading rules to
> effectively manage my positions and to protect myself from making
> judgment errors. I must admit, I am not smart enough to have devised
> these simple trading rules. A great trader gave them to me some 15
> years ago. However, I will tell you they work. If you follow these
> rules, breaking them as infrequently as possible, you will make money
> year in and year out, some years better than others, some years
> worse -- but you will make money. The rules are simple, but adhering
> to them is difficult.
>
>
> a.. The first and most important rule is that in bull
> markets, a trader should be long. This may sound obvious, but how
> many of us have sold the first rally in every bull market, saying
> that the market has moved too far, too fast? I have, and I suspect
> I'll do it again at some point. Thus, we've not enjoyed the profits
> that should have accrued for our initial bullish outlook, but have
> actually lost money while being short. In a bull market, one can only
> be long or on the sidelines. Remember, not having a position is a
> position.
> b.. Buy that which is showing strength; sell that which
> is showing weakness. The public continues to buy when prices have
> fallen. The professional buys because prices have rallied. This
> difference may not sound logical, but buying strength works. The rule
> of survival is not to "buy low, sell high", but to "buy higher and
> sell higher". Furthermore, when comparing various stocks within a
> group, buy only the strongest and sell the weakest.
> c.. When putting on a trade, enter it as if it had the
> potential to be the biggest trade of the year. Don't enter a trade
> until it has been well thought-out, a campaign devised for adding to
> the trade, and contingency plans set for exiting the trade.
> d.. On minor corrections against the major trend, add
> to trades. In bull markets, add to the trade on minor corrections
> back into support levels. In bear markets, add on corrections into
> resistance. Use the 33% to 50% corrections level of the previous
> movement or the proper moving average as a first point in which to
> add.
> e.. Be patient. If you miss a trade, wait for a
> correction to occur before putting the trade on.
> f.. Be patient. Once a trade is put on, allow it time
> to develop and give it time to create the profits you expected.
> g.. Be patient. The adage that "you never go broke
> taking a profit" is maybe the most worthless piece of advice ever
> given. Taking small profits is the surest way to ultimate loss I can
> think of, for small profits are never allowed to develop into
> enormous profits. The real money in trading is made from the one, two
> or three large trades that develop each year. You must develop the
> ability to patiently stay with winning trades to allow them to
> develop into that sort of trade.
> h.. Be patient. Once a trade is put on, give it time to
> work; give it time to insulate itself from random noise; give it time
> for others to see the merit of what you saw earlier than they.
> i.. Be impatient. As always, small losses and quick
> losses are the best losses. It is not the loss of money that is
> important. Rather, it is the mental capital that is used up when you
> sit with a losing trade that is important.
> j.. Never, ever add to a losing trade, or "average"
> into a position. If you are buying, then each new buy price must be
> higher than the previous buy price. If you are shorting, then each
> new selling price must be lower. This rule is to be adhered to
> without question.
> k.. Do more of what is working for you, and less of
> what's not. Each day, look at the various positions you are holding
> and try to add to the trade that has the most profit while
> subtracting from that trade that is either unprofitable or is showing
> the smallest profit. This is the basis of the adage, "let your
> profits run."
> l.. Don't trade until the technicals and the
> fundamentals agree. This rule makes pure technicians cringe. I don't
> care! I will not trade until I am sure that the simple technical
> rules I follow, and my fundamental analyses, are running in tandem.
> Then I can act with authority, and with certainty, and patiently sit
> tight.
> m.. When sharp losses in equity are experienced, take
> time off. Close all trades and stop trading for several days. The
> mind can play games with itself following sharp, quick losses. The
> urge "to get the money back" is extreme, and should not be given
> into.
> n.. When trading well, trade somewhat larger. We all
> experience those incredible periods of time when all of our trades
> are profitable. When that happens, trade aggressively and trade
> larger. We must make our proverbial hay when the sun shines.
> o.. When adding to a trade, add only one-fourth to one-
> half as much as currently held. That is, if you are holding 400
> shares of a stock, at the next point at which to add, add no more
> than 100 or 200 shares. That moves the average price of your holdings
> less than half of the distance moved, thus allowing you to sit
> through 50% corrections without touching your average price.
> p.. Think like a guerrilla warrior. We wish to fight on
> the side of the market that is winning, not wasting our time and
> capital on futile efforts to gain fame by buying the lows or selling
> the highs of some market movement. Our duty is to earn profits by
> fighting alongside the winning forces. If neither side is winning,
> then we don't need to fight at all.
> q.. Markets form their tops in violence; markets form
> their lows in quiet conditions.
> r.. The final 10% of the time of a bull run will
> usually encompass 50% or more of the price movement. Thus, the first
> 50% of the price movement will take 90% of the time and will require
> the most backing and filling and will be far more difficult to trade
> than the last 50%.
>
> There is no genius in these rules. They are common sense
> and nothing else. But as Voltaire said, "Common sense is uncommon."
> Trading is a common-sense business. When we trade contrary to common
> sense, we will lose. Perhaps not always, but enormously and
> eventually. Trade simply. Avoid complex methodologies concerning
> obscure technical systems and trade according to the major trends
> only.
>
>
>
>
>
> StratLab Summary Report | GARP | Technical Tactician |
> Value Doc | Special Value | Trend Trader | Fund Upgrader | E-mail the
> Editors
>
>
>
> Quotes supplied by Standard & Poor's ComStock, Inc. and
> are delayed at least 20 minutes.
>
> MSN Money's editorial goal is to provide a forum for
> personal finance and investment ideas. Our articles, columns, message
> board posts and other features should not be construed as investment
> advice, nor does their appearance imply an endorsement by Microsoft
> of any specific security or trading strategy. An investor's best
> course of action must be based on individual circumstances.
>
>
> MSN - More Useful Everyday
> MSN Home | My MSN | Hotmail | Search | Shopping |
> Money | People & Chat
>
>
>
> ©2002 Microsoft Corporation. All rights reserved. Terms of
> Use Advertise TRUSTe Approved Privacy Statement GetNetWise
>
>
>
>
>
> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
Sell a Home for Top $
http://us.click.yahoo.com/RrPZMC/jTmEAA/jd3IAA/zMEolB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|