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That's clearly a longer term (3-6 month) possibility.....and cannot be
ruled-out or discounted.
Shape of the yield curve, personal and commercial bankruptcy levels, level
of the US dollar, and treasury/corporate bond yield spread all will have a
high correlation with that pessimistic projection as it can only reflect
continued a continued deflationary economy.
Watching the actions of Bush's "crack" economic team is also an
indicator-of-sorts to watch.
No question there has been a rise in the volatility of economic and earnings
forecasts recently.....
with Barron's noting wryly that AMD could either triple in the next year
(stock price) or go bankrupt.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: John Cappello [mailto:jvc689@xxxxxxx]
> Sent: Sunday, October 20, 2002 2:12 PM
> To: M. Simms; realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: [RT] short term top
>
>
>
> I agree many are not in it for the LONG TERM as you say. And the
> second half of my post responds to that idea.
>
> But are you going to base your option plays on posts that I have seen
> with the market suggested around 6500 or so?
>
> I say that is a coin flip and TA alone is not going to give the final
> answer, IMHO.
>
> Respectfully,
>
> John
>
>
>
> ------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
> Originally From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: RE: [RT] short term top
> Date: 10/20/2002 12:41pm
>
>
> BUT JOHN, many of us are NOT IN IT FOR THE LONG TERM.
> We are looking 2-8 WEEKS out.
> A great time horizon for option plays.
>
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: John Cappello [mailto:jvc689@xxxxxxx]
> > Sent: Saturday, October 19, 2002 7:46 PM
> > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: [RT] short term top
> >
> >
> >
> > Holey Moley!
> >
> > With all due respect,
> >
> > For people in this for the long term who cares? Is anyone going to
> > adjust their whole portfolio on the basis of what "irrational
> > pessimism" that I read upon my return.
> >
> > I can flip a coin and be right as often as the TA here has been
> right
> > about various markets.
> >
> > This market abounds with opportunity...some long and some short.
> >
> > Fundamentals are getting sounder for a lot of stocks. Buy
> >
> > Fundamentals are strong in several commodities. BUY
> >
> > Where the opposite is true, just Sell.
> >
> > Where the technicals agree with the fundamentals, play it
> accordingly.
> >
> > The longer I keep an open mind, the more money I have been able to
> > make.
> >
> > How about a little balance in the market posts...when it gets so one
> > sided I think there is a good chance that the majority can be wrong.
> >
> > Shared with impartiality,
> >
> > John
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > ------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
> > Originally From: delta88343@xxxxxxx
> > Subject: Re: [RT] short term top
> > Date: 10/19/2002 06:20pm
> >
> >
> > In a message dated 10/19/02 5:06:19 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
> > prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx writes:
> >
> >
> > >
> > > So, this is what you are saying ?(attached)
> > > We could get back to the August highs then in a "C" wave move ?
> > > This definitely has some merit. Frustrate the shorts, suck-in the
> > longs.
> > >
> > > What I'm refering to on the chart is that we are going to decline
> > into the
> > vicinity of 11/11. The strength and duration of that decline could
> > tell alot
> > of what will happen thereafter based on what cycles exist beyond
> that
> > point.
> > Because we have a cluster of 3cycle lows in close proximity, I would
> > not be
> > surprised if it's a strong move.
> >
> > We have recieved some good earning news. It was a good reason for
> > some
> > buying...now that the market is propped up a bit, it's a good reason
> > to
> > sell...We'll see. It's a volitile market period.
> >
> >
> >
> > We have however retraced over 50% of the move from 8/22 to 10/10.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
>
>
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