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Hi-
In hindsight my response was emotianal; hence irrantional in part at least.
I agree.
chas
----- Original Message -----
From: Kent Rollins <kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, September 22, 2002 6:05 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] From this week's Barron's:
> What does your assertion that the Fed may have caused to the bubble have
to
> do with the fact that they had bad policies that made the Depression
worse?
> Ballen stated that the Fed's restrictive policies made things worse. Do
you
> agree or disagree with that?
>
> Kent
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Charles Meyer" <chaze@xxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Sunday, September 22, 2002 10:05 AM
> Subject: Re: [RT] From this week's Barron's:
>
>
> Everyone has been brainwashed to believe that one of the reasons 1929
> occurred was
> because of poor judgment on the part of the FED re restrictive money.
While
> a case can be made
> that monetary policy was restrictive; a logical case can also be made that
> it was also the FED's
> easy money policies that led to the Great Depression in the first
instance.
> Surely there were
> other contributing factors; but everybody has bought into the idea that
the
> FED is all knowing
> and can do no wrong.
>
> chas
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Daniel Goncharoff <thegonch@xxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Sunday, September 22, 2002 8:55 AM
> Subject: [RT] From this week's Barron's:
>
>
> > From An Interview With John Ballen:
> >
> > Q: Layoffs are still a concern. Industrial production is down. Pricing
> > power is scarce. So is the economy really improving?
> > A: The unemployment number came down in the most recent time frame. The
> > indicators do suggest the economy is improving, maybe not at a rapid
> > rate, but definitely improving. The people with negative outlooks refer
> > to two time periods, 1929 and Japan since 1989. Japan isn't a fair
> > analogy at all. They never readjusted their economy, and they continue
> > to invest in companies that don't have sound fundamentals. The
> > equivalent would be if we kept investing in Internet companies with
> > skyhigh valuations. In that case, we would have poor earnings growth for
> > the next 15 years like Japan. Instead, many Internet companies with bad
> > business models have gone bankrupt, and capital is going into companies
> > that have sound business models and provide a return on investment. That
> > isn't at all like Japan.
> >
> > The environment today is also a lot different from 1929, when monetary
> > policy was so restrictive. There were fundamental problems with the
> > economy and the monetary system in 1929 that we just don't have today.
> >
> > Q: Where do you see interest rates headed?
> > A: If the economy improves, interest rates are probably at some sort of
> > low point. Still, there's no inflation out there. And if you look at
> > long-term interest rates over the past several hundred years in the
> > U.S., 4% or 5% isn't unusual for long periods. If the economy improves,
> > you might see an uptick in rates, especially on the short end as a
> > psychological response, but there's no real reason why interest rates
> > should get out of control or disrupt the stock market. Certainly, if
> > rates rise, the stock market looks less attractive. But, on the other
> > hand, if rates rise that would also indicate earnings are improving, and
> > that wouldn't be such a bad thing.
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> >
> >
> >
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http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
>
>
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>
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