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Just read an article that mentioned a poll of high tech IT
consultancies...similar to EDS, only smaller in size:
business is down 85%.
Technically, given a steady supply of consultants,
then the IT consultants unemployement rate should be at least 50%.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Earl Adamy [mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Friday, September 20, 2002 6:20 PM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
>
>
> During the Great Depression, unemployment was 25%+- ... the flip side is
> that 75%+- were employed. I do think that several critical
> distinctions are
> missed in comparisons:
>
> 1) When the markets peaked in 1929, the US was a net creditor nation with
> very large reserves. When the market peaked in 2000, the US was a
> net debtor
> nation with a huge and growing trade deficit.
>
> 2) Even more important, when the markets peaked in the 1929, the US had a
> large and vibrant manufacturing base which dominated the national economy.
> When the markets peaked in 2000, the US economy was service based
> with most
> of the manufacturing moved off-shore.
>
> Earl
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Friday, September 20, 2002 3:06 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
>
>
> > What you're saying about Japan is correct. Tokyo is hustlin' and
> > bustlin'. But I've read that even during the Great Depression,
> > things were relatively OK in the major cities here.
> >
> >
> > --- In realtraders@xxxx, "Joe Duffy" <joeduffy@xxxx> wrote:
> > > Additionally many here seem to think Japan has been in this decade
> > long
> > > depression. The reality as I hear it is life goes on quite well
> > there, at
> > > least from talking to people who work there --- and that goes for
> > the
> > > nationals not just the ex-pats in the banking industry I know.
> > >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Daniel Goncharoff" <thegonch@xxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > Sent: Friday, September 20, 2002 12:35 PM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
> > >
> > >
> > > > Your use of the word 'panic' followed in another message by
> > extensive
> > > > use of caps leads me to believe you have an opinion. If there is
> > > > anything I have learned from lurking on this list over the years,
> > it is
> > > > to not have a strong opinion, because it makes it emotionally
> > difficult
> > > > to trade.
> > > >
> > > > You also seem to place a lot of meaning on the shape of the yield
> > curve,
> > > > and seem to think that the US economy is heading into a situation
> > like
> > > > Japan. The deep decline in Japan's market can be attributed to a
> > real
> > > > estate bubble that greatly exaggerated the valuation of 'blue
> > chip'
> > > > companies in that market. It has taken a decade and more to wash
> > that
> > > > overvaluation out of that market, and there is still a state of
> > denial
> > > > in the banking sector there. The US is not in a situation
> > anything like
> > > > what happened in Japan. While there may still be too much
> > optimism in
> > > > stocks prices in the US today, I don't see any historical
> > similarity
> > > > except the overall level of interest rates. The size of the
> > bubble in
> > > > both real estate and the stock market was much greater than
> > anything
> > > > present so far in the US economy.
> > > >
> > > > Regards
> > > > DanG
> > > >
> > > > "M. Simms" wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > NO WAY !!! IF SO, HELLO JA-PAN !!! HELLO "DEAD FLAT YIELD
> > CURVE".....
> > > > > JAPAN ECONOMY DEJA VUE....
> > > > > and the experts are saying "IT CAN'T HAPPEN, IT CAN'T
> > HAPPEN" !!!
> > > > >
> > > > > Does this spell the death of capitalism ?
> > > > >
> > > > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > > > From: profitok [mailto:profitok@x...]
> > > > > > Sent: Thursday, September 19, 2002 10:31 PM
> > > > > > To: realtraders@xxxx
> > > > > > Cc: gannsghost@xxxx
> > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > we STILL have much more to go on the upside,,
> > > > > > June 2003 contract to reach 119 by 3 2003
> > > > > > Ben
> > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxx>
> > > > > > To: "RealtradersList" <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > > Sent: Thursday, September 19, 2002 10:09 PM
> > > > > > Subject: [RT] 10 year note near 40 year highs ?
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > Is that correct ?
> > > > > > > In that case we could start approaching that Japan-like
> > yield
> > > > > > curve where
> > > > > > > everything flattens out between a rate of zero and 2
> > percent.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Beware of a Fed INTRADAY rate cut in case of a market
> > panic !
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxx
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
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> > > > > >
> > > > >
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> > > >
> > > >
> >
> >
> >
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> >
> >
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>
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