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M. Simms:
I heard that also and wondered about it - it would be interesting to test
that exit strategy. However, my gut feeling is that it would be more
applicable to a large institutional investor whose entries and exits can
influence the market, as opposed to the typical individual investor. I
would imagine that given the size of the Quantum fund when Soros was
actively managing it, he would begin entering when he thought the bottom/top
was near to accumulate the end of panic - and then exit into the rally.
It will be nice when we all have such problems as worrying about influencing
the market by our entries/exits!
All my best,
Ed
----- Original Message -----
From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, September 17, 2002 8:41 PM
Subject: Soros exit strategy was RE: [RT] GEN: U.S. ECONOMY: INFLATION OR
DEFLATION?
> Speaking of that Soros interview on CNBC.....
> did anyone catch that statement by the master regarding his exit technique
?
> It was stated as:
> 20% of the highest-lowest position's realized price subtracted from the
> highest (or best) position price.
>
> So buy at 30, goes to 28, then moves to 40,
> he would be "out" at 40 - 20/100 * 12
> 37.6 would be his stop price.
>
> Anyone think this merits some backtesting ?
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Ed Larson [mailto:edwardlarson@xxxxxxxxx]
> > Sent: Tuesday, September 17, 2002 10:39 AM
> > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: Re: [RT] GEN: U.S. ECONOMY: INFLATION OR DEFLATION?
> >
> >
> > I believe what Soros said was, as Ben mentioned, is that he feels
> > the dollar
> > will go down by 30% over the next 1 - 3 years. He did not
> > indicate that the
> > Euro and Yen would rise by 30%, although if they stay static that
> > is roughly
> > what would be implied. He did indicate that Euro and Yen would benefit
as
> > European and Japanese investors liquidate dollars and brought them home;
> > however, he indicated that this was not a "Good" thing from a world
> > financial system perspective as those economies are even weaker
> > than the US.
> > He was not constructive on the Yen and Euro; except for the support that
> > repatriation would provide. He seemed to imply gold may benefit, but he
> > played it tight to the vest as far as what he may be positioning
> > himself in.
> > He also mentioned the developing real estate bubble in the US.
> >
> > FWIW
> >
> > All my best,
> >
> > Ed
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Tuesday, September 17, 2002 10:02 AM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] GEN: U.S. ECONOMY: INFLATION OR DEFLATION?
> >
> >
> > > --- In realtraders@xxxx, Daniel Goncharoff <thegonch@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > Did he explain why
> > >
> > > "Fear."
> > >
> > >
> > > he thought the euro and yen would go up 30% v the
> > > > dollar? Because I can't see anything in those economies that would
> > > > justify it. In fact, it would crush them as things stand now.
> > > >
> > > > Regards
> > > > DanG
> > > >
> > > > profitok wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > Did you hear what Soros had to say last night to Maria B on cnbc?
> > > > > He feels us dollar to go down another 30% in 1-3 years!!
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: "Charles Meyer" <chaze@xxxx>
> > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > Sent: Tuesday, September 17, 2002 8:18 AM
> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] GEN: U.S. ECONOMY: INFLATION OR DEFLATION?
> > > > >
> > > > > > Dan-
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Thanks for your feedback. Although it was excruciatingly
> > > difficult to
> > > > > wade
> > > > > > through that piece;
> > > > > > I thought it to be a serious and worthwhile read; especially for
> > > > > investors.
> > > > > > I also got the impression that he was not in fact conclusive
> > > with many of
> > > > > > his statements and left the reader wondering as to his beliefs
> > > about the
> > > > > > future of the U.S. economy. Maybe he's thinking that IF the
> > > deflationary
> > > > > > forces get out of hand--the FED would pull out all stops as the
> > > lender of
> > > > > > last resort and these
> > > > > > mechanisms could lead to meaningful inflation.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Many thanks again for your feedback. Reading this one really
> > > made my head
> > > > > > hurt.<g>
> > > > > >
> > > > > > chas
> > > > > >
> > > > > > ---- Original Message -----
> > > > > > From: Daniel Goncharoff <thegonch@xxxx>
> > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > > > Sent: Tuesday, September 17, 2002 3:04 AM
> > > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] GEN: U.S. ECONOMY: INFLATION OR DEFLATION?
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > I found it amazingly difficult to identify any declarative
> > > sentences in
> > > > > > > the article. Liu does say that debt bubbles in the past have
> > > frequently
> > > > > > > resulted in hyperinflation. Even if you look at the Great
> > > Depression,
> > > > > > > Germany had hyperinflation. The US had deflation. Liu nowhere
> > > suggests
> > > > > > > one or the other will happen.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > Regards
> > > > > > > DanG
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Charles Meyer wrote:
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Group-
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > Any thoughts or comments? Isn't Liu suggesting that the
> > > ultimate
> > > > > > > > problem we may face is
> > > > > > > > one of inflation as opposed to deflation?
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/DI14Dj01.html
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > For an interesting opposing view see:
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=1040
> > > > > > > >
> > > > > > > > chas
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
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