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I believe what Soros said was, as Ben mentioned, is that he feels the dollar
will go down by 30% over the next 1 - 3 years. He did not indicate that the
Euro and Yen would rise by 30%, although if they stay static that is roughly
what would be implied. He did indicate that Euro and Yen would benefit as
European and Japanese investors liquidate dollars and brought them home;
however, he indicated that this was not a "Good" thing from a world
financial system perspective as those economies are even weaker than the US.
He was not constructive on the Yen and Euro; except for the support that
repatriation would provide. He seemed to imply gold may benefit, but he
played it tight to the vest as far as what he may be positioning himself in.
He also mentioned the developing real estate bubble in the US.
FWIW
All my best,
Ed
----- Original Message -----
From: "tradewynne" <tradewynne@xxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, September 17, 2002 10:02 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] GEN: U.S. ECONOMY: INFLATION OR DEFLATION?
> --- In realtraders@xxxx, Daniel Goncharoff <thegonch@xxxx> wrote:
> > Did he explain why
>
> "Fear."
>
>
> he thought the euro and yen would go up 30% v the
> > dollar? Because I can't see anything in those economies that would
> > justify it. In fact, it would crush them as things stand now.
> >
> > Regards
> > DanG
> >
> > profitok wrote:
> > >
> > > Did you hear what Soros had to say last night to Maria B on cnbc?
> > > He feels us dollar to go down another 30% in 1-3 years!!
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Charles Meyer" <chaze@xxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > Sent: Tuesday, September 17, 2002 8:18 AM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] GEN: U.S. ECONOMY: INFLATION OR DEFLATION?
> > >
> > > > Dan-
> > > >
> > > > Thanks for your feedback. Although it was excruciatingly
> difficult to
> > > wade
> > > > through that piece;
> > > > I thought it to be a serious and worthwhile read; especially for
> > > investors.
> > > > I also got the impression that he was not in fact conclusive
> with many of
> > > > his statements and left the reader wondering as to his beliefs
> about the
> > > > future of the U.S. economy. Maybe he's thinking that IF the
> deflationary
> > > > forces get out of hand--the FED would pull out all stops as the
> lender of
> > > > last resort and these
> > > > mechanisms could lead to meaningful inflation.
> > > >
> > > > Many thanks again for your feedback. Reading this one really
> made my head
> > > > hurt.<g>
> > > >
> > > > chas
> > > >
> > > > ---- Original Message -----
> > > > From: Daniel Goncharoff <thegonch@xxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxx>
> > > > Sent: Tuesday, September 17, 2002 3:04 AM
> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] GEN: U.S. ECONOMY: INFLATION OR DEFLATION?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > I found it amazingly difficult to identify any declarative
> sentences in
> > > > > the article. Liu does say that debt bubbles in the past have
> frequently
> > > > > resulted in hyperinflation. Even if you look at the Great
> Depression,
> > > > > Germany had hyperinflation. The US had deflation. Liu nowhere
> suggests
> > > > > one or the other will happen.
> > > > >
> > > > > Regards
> > > > > DanG
> > > > >
> > > > > > Charles Meyer wrote:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Group-
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Any thoughts or comments? Isn't Liu suggesting that the
> ultimate
> > > > > > problem we may face is
> > > > > > one of inflation as opposed to deflation?
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/DI14Dj01.html
> > > > > >
> > > > > > For an interesting opposing view see:
> > > > > >
> > > > > > www.mises.org/fullstory.asp?control=1040
> > > > > >
> > > > > > chas
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
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> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
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> > >
> > >
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