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taken with permission from a banker
"...[I have been made aware]of a very
unusual "paper" written by Mr. Norbert Walter, the Deutsche Bank's chief
economist, and a gentleman not given to hyperbole. Mr. Walter apparently has
become more and more concerned about the very stability of the global economy
after returning from an extended trip to Asia to see firsthand what is taking
place there. He is now concerned that unless the central bankers of the world
change their policies materially the world shall slip into 'a second leg of
recession... combining with deflation.' He said in a letter now being circulated
to the major central bankers: "... around the world, the indicators
leave no room for talk of an upswing. The economy is in a downswing as declining
capacity utilization and increasing unemployment show. Recession cannot be ruled
out, considering the multitude and seriousness of the trouble spots and
potential risks to economic growth..... The people at the top seem to be losing
the sight of the big picture. Pro-cyclic policy is being declared the only
politically correct attitude."
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