|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
There are degrees of bubbleness.
The Good: Every opinion I
have seen regarding the housing market, whether they think the housing market is
a bubble or not, agrees that we are not seeing the extremely speculative
behavior that they have seen in past housing bubbles: people overbuying rental
properties, people buying property as speculation, home builders overbuilding on
speculation. Everyone seems to agree on this fact. So it seems safe
to say that while home prices may be overvalued, they are not at extremes...as
eye-bulging as that is to some, myself included. The fact that everyone is
still talking about "Is it a bubble or isn't it?" seems to indicate that we're
not at extremes. The internet bubble didn't really collapse until everyone
had bought in. Druckenmiller had drunk the Verisign cool-aid and was
wanting to drink some more in the winter of 2000.
The
Bad: Do we want prices
to continue increasing? If you own a home, you might say "Sure!" If
you consider that home price deflation/collapse would be bad for almost
everyone, then clearly the answer is "No." The thing is you can't
slowly deflate economic bubbles. By definition, a bubble is a thing of
little substance. Once it begins to shrink, it shrinks really fast, faster
than anyone think it will and faster than anyone thinks it
is. Greenspan intellectually dabbled with the idea of collapsing the
internet bubble and warned everyone of "irrational exuberance". Would the
economy have been better off if he had collapsed the internet bubble in early
1998 when prices were only sort of irrational? Or in early 1999 when
prices we really irrational? We know what happened when he waited until
early 2000 when prices were insanely irrational. It's 2002 and we're still
feeling the effects. Kind of raises an interesting question: should the
Fed induce recessions every 3-4 years so they will be milder than waiting 8-9
years for them to occur?
The Ugly:
Debt is high. Corporate debt is high.
Personal debt is high. Government debt is high. What's the hotest
thing in mortgage lending? REFI! What's the hotest thing in
refi's? CASH-OUT REFI!!! That home you bought 5 years ago for $200K
is now worth $450K. It's not a retirement nest egg. It's your own
personal Fed. Print money at will. And people are. And banks
are letting them. No, encouraging them. Way too many people are
overextended. And what does Bush do? Let's give money to people so
they can make a down-payment on a home. Ignore the fact that they can't
earn or save enough money to do that on their own. Ignore the fact that
the government is already running a deficit. Let's encourage people who
probably are not financially sound and disciplined to begin with and put them in
debt and see how it goes. I say stop the bubble now.
I'm not in the double dip camp but I do think personal debt
(including the home mortgage) poses the highest risk to the economy at the
moment. Even though I think it would throw us into a double dip, I think
the housing bubble should be stopped. I think the Fed or whoever is in
charge of setting lending requirements should tighten lending requirements
to individuals (NOT corporations!) and should do so promptly. Credit card
lending requirements need to be examined as well. It won't be pretty, but
heading the problem off now will be a lot less painful. Or...pass the
cool-aid.
Kent
----- Original Message -----
From: <A
href="mailto:prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx"; title=prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>M. Simms
To: <A href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Tuesday, August 27, 2002 9:29 PM
Subject: RE: [RT] GEN: The Run-Up in Home Prices: Is It Real or Is
It Another Bubble?
The big question
here is related to "correct policy response" ......
What should /
could the government do if housing prices begin to decline ?
One option would
be to artificially keep longer term interest rates low.
How
?
Reflate by
increasing the money supply.
Short-term,
great.......but longer term this usually results in more money chasing limited
goods and services
....and then
prices begin to rise....and this leads to HIGHER interest rates as lenders then
scramble to compensate for getting paid back with "cheaper dollars" for their
loans. However, this helps the government payback their older notes in cheaper
dollars....especially a government running a deficit.
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
Whether the
government TIMES the reflation properly is key here....very tricky....if they
wait until housing begins to drop, then it may be "too
late"....
it's best if they
can anticipate the market a bit.......similar to what we do in trading
!
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Charles Meyer
[mailto:chaze@xxxxxxxx]Sent: Monday, August 26, 2002 4:41
PMTo: REAL TRADERSSubject: [RT] GEN: The Run-Up in Home
Prices: Is It Real or Is It Another Bubble?
Group-
I think it was Mr. Simms who pointed out the
importance of watching the housing market in the current
economic climate? Thoughts or comments
welcomed.
chas
<IMG
width=306>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
<SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 18pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">The Run-Up in
Home Prices: Is It Real or Is It Another Bubble?
<FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3>By Dean Baker<A
href="#_ftn1" name=_ftnref1 title=""><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">[1]<SPAN
class=MsoFootnoteReference><FONT
face="Times New Roman">[1]
<A href="#_ftn2"
name=_ftnref2 title=""><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">[2]<SPAN
class=MsoFootnoteReference>August 5,
2002
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Executive Summary
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>In the last seven years home purchase
prices have risen nearly 30 percent more than the rate of inflation. This
run-up in housing prices has increased housing wealth by more than $2.6
trillion compared to a situation in which home prices had just kept place with
inflation. This is an average of more than $35,000 of additional wealth for
each of the nation’s 73.3 million homeowners. This paper examines whether the
increase in home prices can be grounded in fundamental economic factors, or
whether it is simply a bubble, similar to the stock market bubble. The paper
notes:
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>1) There has been no clear upward trend
in housing costs relative to other items in the post-war period. In general,
housing prices move in step with the overall rate of inflation. This means
that the recent spurt in housing prices is a departure from the prior history.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>2) There is no clear link between the
pace of income growth and the share of housing in consumption. In the period
from 1951 to 1972, when income rose very rapidly (considerably faster than in
the late nineties), there was only a very modest increase in the share of
consumption spending that went to housing.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>3) The sharpest increase in the housing
share of consumption spending was associated with the baby boom cohort
entering the labor force in the seventies and early eighties. The rate of
increase in the housing share of consumption slowed precipitously in the mid
and late eighties.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>4) Current demographics suggest that the
housing share of consumer expenditures should be falling for the foreseeable
future, as the baby boom cohort approaches retirement.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>Two thirds of the run-up in home prices
is attributable to a rise in the price of buying a home relative to the cost
of renting a home, as shown in Figure 1. This is what would be expected if
there is a housing bubble, since it suggests that families are buying homes in
large part as an investment rather than primarily as a place to live. A sharp
slowdown in the rate of inflation in rental cost index in the last six months,
and a record high rental vacancy rate, suggests that demand for rental housing
is lagging, which could precipitate the collapse of the bubble.
<FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Figure
1
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><IMG height=370
u1:shapes="_x0000_i1025">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Source: BLS and OFHEO, see
appendix.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>5) The recent drop in interest rates
cannot explain the divergence of home purchase prices and rental prices. Much
sharper movements in interest rates in the eighties did not have anywhere near
as large an effect.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>6) If low interest rates actually are the
main factor behind the run-up in housing prices, then it would support the
view that there is a bubble in the housing market, since interest rates are
unlikely to remain so low, especially with the government projected to run
sizable budget deficits for the foreseeable future.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>The collapse of the housing bubble,
implying a drop of between 11 and 22 percent in the average of housing prices
, will destroy between $1.3 trillion and $2.6 trillion in housing wealth.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>7) In the wake of this collapse,
residential construction is likely to fall by between 0.6 and 1.3 percentage
points of GDP.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>8) The loss of this much housing wealth
will reduce consumption by between $80 and $160 billion.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>9) The average ratio of homeowner’s
equity to value, at 55.2 percent, is near its low for the post-war period. A
sharp drop in home prices will send this ratio far below its previous low
point. Since there are considerable differences in housing markets across the
country, if housing prices fall 10 percent nationally, then many regions will
see price declines of 20-30 percent. This will create a situation in which
millions of families have little or no equity in their homes. This is an
especially serious issue with the large baby boom cohort nearing retirement.
It will also lead to a surge in mortgage default rates, as many homeowners opt
not to keep paying a mortgage that exceeds the value of their home. This could
place serious stress on the financial system.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>In the late eighties Japan
experienced a simultaneous bubble in its stock market and its real estate
market. The collapse of these bubbles has derailed its economy for more than a
decade. A similar collapse in the United States, coupled with a poor policy
response, could have similar consequences here.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Introduction
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
The recent plunge in stock prices has finally forced most policy analysts and
economists to acknowledge that the stock market had a bubble at its 1998-2000
peaks. Similarly, the recent fall in the dollar has increased the recognition
that the dollar was also over-valued. The economy has yet to deal with
all the disruptions created by the deflation of these two bubbles. This
process will take some time, and the correction in the value of the dollar is
still far from complete. However, the economy has now developed a third
bubble, the collapse of which also poses a serious danger to the
economy.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
The third bubble is in the housing market. Since 1995, home sale prices have
risen far more rapidly than the overall rate of inflation. Over this seven
year period, home sale prices have risen by more than 47 percent in nominal
terms, an amount that is nearly 30 percent above the overall rate of
inflation.<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">[3]<SPAN
class=MsoFootnoteReference>[2] This
run up in housing prices has translated into an additional $2.7 trillion
in housing wealth, more than $35,000 for an average homeowner, compared to a
scenario in which home sale prices had only kept place with the overall rate
of inflation.<FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">[4]<SPAN
class=MsoFootnoteReference><FONT
face="Times New Roman">[3]
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
This increase in housing prices has had important short-term consequences for
the economy. Most immediately, it has helped to sustain housing sales and
construction of new homes, as many families purchase homes at least partly
with the belief that their price will continue to outpace inflation in the
future. Housing sales have remained at or near record levels throughout the
recent recession. High housing prices have also fostered consumer spending
generally. As several recent studies have shown, households view the value of
their homes as an important source of wealth for the future (e.g. Case,
Shiller, and Quigley, 2001; Dynan, K. and D. Maki, 2001; Maki, D. and M.
Palumbo). When they see home values climb, they feel less need to save for the
future. In addition, increases in home values allow households to directly
increase their consumption by borrowing against their increased equity. Partly
as a result of this run-up in housing prices, consumption has stayed high and
savings rates have remained near record lows, even as the declining stock
market has substantially reduced the wealth of tens of millions of
families.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
While the short-term effects of a housing bubble appear very beneficial—just
as was the case with the stock bubble and the dollar bubble—the long-term
effects from its eventual deflation can be extremely harmful, both to the
economy as a whole, and to tens of millions of families that will see much of
their equity disappear unexpectedly. The economy will lose an important source
of demand as housing construction plummets and the wealth effect goes into
reverse. This will slow an economy already reeling from the effects of the
collapse of the stock bubble. The loss of housing equity will be yet another
blow to baby boomers on the edge of retirement, many of whom just endured
large losses in the stock market.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
Unfortunately, most of the nation’s political and economic leadership remained
oblivious to the dangers of the stock market and dollar bubbles until they
began to deflate. This failure created the basis for the economic uncertainty
the country currently faces. The problems created by the deflation of the
stock market and dollar bubbles will be aggravated further by the deflation of
the housing bubble. This process will prove even more painful if the housing
bubble is allowed to expand still further before collapsing.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
The first section of this paper examines the evidence that the housing market
is in fact experiencing a bubble. It shows that the nineties have seen a
run-up in housing prices that is without precedent in the post-war era. The
second section points out some of the likely implications of housing prices
returning to more normal levels. The third section briefly examines the
economy’s near-term prospects, given the likely collapse of the housing
bubble. This is followed by a brief conclusion.
The
Evidence for a Housing Bubble
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
While there is no dispute that housing prices have vastly outpaced the
inflation rate over the last seven years, it is possible that higher housing
prices reflect shifts in underlying fundamentals, which have led people to
place increased value on home ownership. This is precisely what Federal
Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan argued in recent testimony before the
Congress (“Fed Chief Blames Corporate Greed; House Revises Bill,” <SPAN
style="FONT-STYLE: italic">New York Times, July 17, 2002, Page A1).
This section examines the evidence for such a shift in fundamentals.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>Before looking at the data, it is worth
noting that very similar arguments concerning shifts in fundamentals were made
by those who believed that the stock prices at the peak of the bubble were
justified, or that the high dollar could be maintained in spite of soaring
current account deficits. Many prominent economists, including Mr. Greenspan,
put forward such arguments. In the wake of the recent declines in the stock
market and the dollar, these arguments appear much less credible than they may
have two or three years ago.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
The first issue to consider is whether there may have been a shift in the
value that people place on housing, as opposed to other goods. In other words,
if there was a shift in people’s tastes, either due to income growth, growth
in population, or just a random factor leading people to value housing more
than they had previously, then higher home prices may be due to fundamental
factors, rather than a temporary bubble.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
The historical pattern of consumer spending over the post-war era, and the
trend in real housing prices, provides some insight into this issue. The first
column of Table 1 shows the percentage of consumer expenditures that are
attributed to rent or owners equivalent rent, which measure spending on
housing as a consumption good, at five different points in the post war era.<A
href="#_ftn5" name=_ftnref5 title=""><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">[5]<SPAN
class=MsoFootnoteReference>[4] The
second and third columns show the rental price index over this period, as well
as the overall consumer price index (CPI) for the same years.
Table
1
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Housing Share of Consumption and
Relative Price
<TABLE border=0 cellPadding=0 cellSpacing=0 class=MsoNormalTable
style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; MARGIN-LEFT: 3.9pt">
<TD height=19
style="HEIGHT: 14pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 0.7in"
vAlign=top width=67>
<FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"> <FONT color=black face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">
<TD height=19
style="HEIGHT: 14pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 89.05pt"
vAlign=top width=119>
<FONT
color=black face="Times New Roman" size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 11pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Housing
Share
<TD height=19
style="HEIGHT: 14pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 89.05pt"
vAlign=top width=119>
<FONT
color=black face="Times New Roman" size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 11pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Rental
Price
<TD height=19
style="HEIGHT: 14pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 89pt"
vAlign=top width=119>
<FONT
color=black face="Times New Roman" size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 11pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Overall
Price
<TD height=19
style="HEIGHT: 14pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 0.7in"
vAlign=top width=67>
<FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"> <FONT color=black face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">
<TD height=19
style="HEIGHT: 14pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 89.05pt"
vAlign=top width=119>
<FONT
color=black face="Times New Roman" size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 11pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">of
Consumption
<TD height=19
style="HEIGHT: 14pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 89.05pt"
vAlign=top width=119>
<FONT
color=black face="Times New Roman" size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 11pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Index
<TD height=19
style="HEIGHT: 14pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 89pt"
vAlign=top width=119>
<FONT
color=black face="Times New Roman" size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-SIZE: 11pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Index
<TD height=19
style="HEIGHT: 14pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 0.7in"
vAlign=top width=67>
<FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">1951
<TD height=19
style="HEIGHT: 14pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 89.05pt"
vAlign=top width=119>
<FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">13.9%
<TD height=19
style="HEIGHT: 14pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 89.05pt"
vAlign=top width=119>
<FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">100.0
<TD height=19
style="HEIGHT: 14pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 89pt"
vAlign=top width=119>
<FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">100.0
<TD height=19
style="HEIGHT: 14pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 0.7in"
vAlign=top width=67>
<FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">1961
<TD height=19
style="HEIGHT: 14pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 89.05pt"
vAlign=top width=119>
<FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">16.6%
<TD height=19
style="HEIGHT: 14pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 89.05pt"
vAlign=top width=119>
<FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">126.9
<TD height=19
style="HEIGHT: 14pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 89pt"
vAlign=top width=119>
<FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">114.8
<TD height=19
style="HEIGHT: 14pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 0.7in"
vAlign=top width=67>
<FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">1971-72
<TD height=19
style="HEIGHT: 14pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 89.05pt"
vAlign=top width=119>
<FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">17.4%
<TD height=19
style="HEIGHT: 14pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 89.05pt"
vAlign=top width=119>
<FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">160.4
<TD height=19
style="HEIGHT: 14pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 89pt"
vAlign=top width=119>
<FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">154.6
<TD height=19
style="HEIGHT: 14pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 0.7in"
vAlign=top width=67>
<FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">1982-84
<TD height=19
style="HEIGHT: 14pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 89.05pt"
vAlign=top width=119>
<FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">25.2%
<TD height=19
style="HEIGHT: 14pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 89.05pt"
vAlign=top width=119>
<FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">323.6
<TD height=19
style="HEIGHT: 14pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 89pt"
vAlign=top width=119>
<FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">349.6
<TD height=19
style="HEIGHT: 14pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 0.7in"
vAlign=top width=67>
<FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">1993-95
<TD height=19
style="HEIGHT: 14pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 89.05pt"
vAlign=top width=119>
<FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">26.8%
<TD height=19
style="HEIGHT: 14pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 89.05pt"
vAlign=top width=119>
<FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">498.4
<TD height=19
style="HEIGHT: 14pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 89pt"
vAlign=top width=119>
<FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">501.8
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Baker 1996, see
appendix.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>The first point worth noting is that the
share of consumer spending going to housing (rent and owner’s equivalent rent)
did in fact rise over the post-war period, from 13.9 percent in 1951 to 26.8
percent of spending in the years from 1993-95. However, the rate of increase
in the housing share of expenditures was sharpest in the period from the early
seventies to the early eighties, when it rose from 17.4 percent to 25.2
percent. The rate of growth in the housing share slowed substantially in the
period from the early eighties to the mid nineties, rising by just 1.6
percentage points over an eleven-year period.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>This history fits well with the basic
demographics of the post-war period. The baby boomers were becoming adults and
starting their own families in large numbers in the seventies and early
eighties. By the late eighties, the vast majority of baby boomers were already
living on their own. Therefore, it is not surprising that the growth in the
housing share of expenditures would have slowed significantly. The current
demographic structure suggests that there should be some decrease in the
demand for housing as the baby boom cohorts get closer to retirement.<A
href="#_ftn6" name=_ftnref6 title=""><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">[6]<SPAN
class=MsoFootnoteReference>[5]
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>A second striking fact is that there is
no obvious relationship between the rate of increase in the share of housing
in total consumption and the rate of increase in rental costs. Rental costs do
increase more rapidly than the overall CPI in the period from 1951 to 1961, as
the housing share of expenditures also increases rapidly. Housing costs rise
by 26.9 percent over this period, while the overall rate of inflation is just
14.8 percent.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>However, in the period from the early
seventies (1971-72) to the early eighties (1982-84), housing costs actually
increase somewhat less rapidly than the overall CPI (101.7 percent for rental
costs, compared to 116.1 percent for the CPI as a whole), even though there is
a large increase in the housing share of consumption expenditures over the
period. In short, housing construction was apparently able to keep pace with
the rapid increase in demand over this period, so there was no increase in the
relative price of housing. Taking the period as a whole, there is no clear
tendency for housing prices to move at a different rate than other prices. The
average annual increase in the rental cost index from 1951 to 1994 was 3.27
percent, virtually identical to the 3.29 percent average annual increase for
the CPI as a whole.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3> Housing is obviously in somewhat
fixed supply in the short-term, so it is entirely plausible that a rapid rise
in income, like we saw in the late nineties, coupled with the surge in stock
market wealth, would lead to a temporary run-up in housing prices, as demand
outstrips supply. But the data in Table 1 provide no reason for believing that
this effect would be long lasting and lead to a permanent increase in housing
prices. The surge in stock market wealth has already been reversed, and the
income growth of the late nineties was not extraordinary by post-war
standards.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>Median family income grew by 2.3 percent
annually between 1993 and 2000. By comparison, median family income grew by
more than 3.1 percent annually from 1947 to 1973. This much more rapid and
sustained rise in family income led to only a very gradual increase in the
share of expenditures devoted to housing—and only a modest increase in the
relative price of housing, so we should not expect large changes either in the
demand for housing or in the relative price of housing from the income growth
in the nineties. Also, according to the data from the Consumer Expenditure
Survey, the share of family expenditures devoted to housing actually falls
slightly as income rises
[ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/ce/share/2000/income.txt]. This would
imply that if income were to continue to rise at healthy pace, then the
relative demand for housing would decline. In short, this data suggest that a
surge in demand can lead to a temporary increase in housing prices, as demand
outstrips supply. But, as new housing comes on the market, this rise in
housing prices should be reversed.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
While there is no reason for
believing that there has been a sharp increase in the underlying demand for
housing, there is the possibility that homeownership has become relatively
more attractive than renting, which could in turn push up the price of homes.
It is worth noting that most of the run-up in the real cost of new homes in
the last seven years is the result of a rise in the price of owning a home
relative to the price of renting a home. Figure 2 compares the path of the
rent index in the CPI with the Office of Federal Housing Price Enterprise
Oversight (OFHEO) House Price Index from its inception in 1975 through the
first quarter of 2001. Both indexes are deflated by the CPI (minus the shelter
component), so they are showing the real costs of home purchases and
renting.
<FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Figure
2
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><IMG height=370
u1:shapes="_x0000_i1026">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Source: BLS and OFHEO, see
appendix.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>As can be seen, most of the increase in
the house price index (HPI) in the last seven years represents a divergence
from the CPI rent index. During this period, the rent index has risen by just
under 10 percent in real terms, while the HPI has risen by 29.2 percent. In
general, these indexes have stayed reasonably close together. There have been
divergences in the past, as in the late seventies and late eighties when the
HPI index grew more rapidly than the CPI rent index, but in both cases, these
divergences were followed by a period in which the HPI declined relative to
the CPI rent index.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
It should not be surprising that these indexes would tend to move at
approximately the same pace, since the movements in one index should affect
the movements in the other index. For example, if the cost of buying a home
rises sharply, as it has in recent years, it would be expected that this would
get passed on in higher rents, as owners of rental units attempt to recoup
higher purchase prices from their tenants. Similarly, if rents begin to fall,
or at least not keep pace with inflation, it is reasonable to expect that this
would eventually exert downward pressure on home prices. As tenants are able
to get better deals on rent, they will be less anxious to rush out to buy
homes. Also, potential homebuyers who are interested in renting out housing
units would be willing to pay less for homes as rents drop.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>This latter point is worth noting,
especially since there has been some decline in the rate of growth of the CPI
rent index in recent months. The nominal rate of increase in rental prices was
4.6 percent through the second half of 2001. This fell to a 4.1 percent annual
rate in the first three months of 2002, and just 2.6 percent in the second
quarter of 2002.<FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">[7]<SPAN
class=MsoFootnoteReference>[6] This
data is always somewhat erratic, but this pattern seems to suggest a
substantial decline in the rate of increase in the rental component. It now
appears to be moving at a pace that is very close to the overall rate of
inflation. It also worth noting that the rental vacancy rate reached 9.1
percent in the first quarter of 2002, the highest rate on record since the
Census Bureau first began collecting these data in 1960.<A href="#_ftn8"
name=_ftnref8 title=""><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">[8]<SPAN
class=MsoFootnoteReference>[7]
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>Before examining whether there can be a
plausible explanation for the divergence between home prices and rental
prices, it is important to point out that the housing market varies enormously
by region. While the national data show that home prices on average have
increased far more than the rate of inflation over the last seven years, this
is not true everywhere. Table 2a shows the cumulative increase in housing
costs in the metropolitan areas with the fast pace of housing price growth
over the last ten years. As can be seen, in this top ten list, the cumulative
rate of price increase has been close to 80 percent over the last five years.
Nine of the ten metropolitan areas with the most rapid increase in housing
prices are located in California. Table 2b shows the ten
metropolitan areas with the slowest rate of price increase. (Appendix Table 1
shows the five year and one year rates of price increase in each of the fifty
states.) The average home price increase for this second group is under 15
percent,
<P align=center class=MsoNormal
style="TEXT-ALIGN: center; TEXT-INDENT: 0.5in"><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>Table 2a
<FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Areas With Most Rapid Housing Price
Increases
<TABLE border=1 cellPadding=0 cellSpacing=0 class=MsoNormalTable
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; BORDER-TOP: medium none">
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 3.5in"
vAlign=top width=336>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Metropolitan Area
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">5-Yr. Increase
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">1-Yr. Increase
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 3.5in"
vAlign=top width=336>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">1. Santa-Cruz-Watsonville, CA
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">88.9%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.2%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 3.5in"
vAlign=top width=336>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">2. San Jose, CA
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">83.3%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">-3.8%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 3.5in"
vAlign=top width=336>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3. Barnstable-Yarmouth, MA
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">81.8%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">13.5%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 3.5in"
vAlign=top width=336>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4. San Francisco, CA
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">80.8%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">1.3%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 3.5in"
vAlign=top width=336>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5. Oakland, CA
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">80.5%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.9%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 3.5in"
vAlign=top width=336>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">6. Santa Rosa, CA
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">78.7%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5.2%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 3.5in"
vAlign=top width=336>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">7. Salinas, CA
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">78.2%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">6.0%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 3.5in"
vAlign=top width=336>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">8. Santa Barbara-Santa Maria
Lompoc, CA
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">75.5%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">12.5%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 3.5in"
vAlign=top width=336>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">9. San Luis Obispo-Atascadero-Paso
Robles, CA
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">72.4%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">11.8%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 3.5in"
vAlign=top width=336>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">10. Vallejo-Fairfield-Napa,
CA
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">71.9%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">10.0%
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Source: Office of Federal Housing <FONT
size=2>Enterprise<FONT
size=2> Oversight,
2002.
<FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Table 2b
<FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Areas With Least Rapid Housing
Price Increases
<TABLE border=1 cellPadding=0 cellSpacing=0 class=MsoNormalTable
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; BORDER-TOP: medium none">
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 3.5in"
vAlign=top width=336>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Metropolitan Area
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">5-Yr. Increase
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">1-Yr. Increase
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 3.5in"
vAlign=top width=336>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">1. Honolulu, HI
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">9.0%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5.7%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 3.5in"
vAlign=top width=336>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">2. Springfield, IL
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">10.3%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">1.2%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 3.5in"
vAlign=top width=336>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.Albuquerque, NM
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">11.0%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">2.5%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 3.5in"
vAlign=top width=336>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4. Spokane, WA
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">12.5%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.4%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 3.5in"
vAlign=top width=336>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5. Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">12.8%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">1.8%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 3.5in"
vAlign=top width=336>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">6. Reading, PA
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">12.9%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.5%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 3.5in"
vAlign=top width=336>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">7. Visalia-Tulare-Porterville,
CA
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">13.6%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5.1%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 3.5in"
vAlign=top width=336>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">8. Rochester, NY
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">14.3%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.8%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 3.5in"
vAlign=top width=336>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">9. Springfield, MO
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">15.0%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.8%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 3.5in"
vAlign=top width=336>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">10. Rockford, IL
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">15.1%
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.2in"
vAlign=top width=115>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">2.8%
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"> <SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Source: Office of Federal Housing <FONT
size=2>Enterprise<FONT
size=2> Oversight,
2002.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>The large variation in regional housing
markets is important for two reasons. First, it seems that many regional
markets did not experience a housing bubble, as home prices moved more or less
in step with the overall rate of inflation. Presumably, areas that were not
affected by the bubble will not see sharp declines in home prices when the
bubble deflates. Second, just as housing prices did not rise at the same pace
everywhere during the bubble, they will not all deflate at the same rate when
the bubble bursts. This means if prices decline by 10 percent nationwide, some
regions could see price declines of 20 percent, or more. A 20 percent decline
in prices nation-wide could be associated with price drops of more than 40
percent in some regional markets. Of course, in some areas, rapidly rising
prices may be associated with fundamental factors making the region more
attractive, just as some of the companies whose stock price experienced large
gains in the nineties were actually rapidly growing, profitable
companies. Just because prices went up a lot with the housing bubble
there is no guarantee that they will fall by a large amount when the bubble
bursts.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>There could be factors that would
justify an increase in the gap between the rent index and the HPI—most
importantly lower interest rates. But on closer examination, it is unlikely
that these factors explain the divergence shown in Figure 1. While nominal
mortgage interest rates are currently at their lowest level since the sixties,
it is the real mortgage interest rate (the difference between the mortgage
rate and the inflation rate) which should matter for housing prices. This is
not much different from the rates of the mid-nineties, before the run-up in
housing prices began.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>For example, the year-round average for
mortgage interest rates in 1993 was 7.2 percent. The rate of inflation in 1993
was 2.7 percent, implying a real mortgage interest rate of 4.5 percent. While
nominal mortgage rates have fallen slightly under 6.4 percent in recent weeks
[mid-July, 2002], the inflation rate over the last year has been just 1.1
percent, which would imply a real mortgage interest rate of just under 5.3
percent, slightly higher than the mid-nineties rate.<A href="#_ftn9"
name=_ftnref9 title=""><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">[9]<SPAN
class=MsoFootnoteReference>[8] Even
if homebuyers anticipate that annual inflation will rise to 2.5 percent, it
would still translate into a real mortgage interest rate of 3.9 percent. In
other words, it is not clear that there has been much, if any, decline in real
mortgage interest rates from the period before the rapid run-up in housing
prices.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>It is also worth noting that the price
movements shown in Figure 1 do not support the view that interest rates play a
large role in determining the relative price movements of home prices and
rental costs. For example, the increases in the real interest rate in the
early eighties, due to the sharp slowdown in the rate of inflation, were far
larger than the changes in real interest rates in the mid and late nineties.
Yet, the change in the relative price of purchasing a home and renting was far
smaller than what we have seen in the late nineties.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>While it is possible that homebuyers only
care about the nominal interest rate because they don’t recognize changes in
the inflation rate, this still could not provide an explanation for the sharp
divergence in the home price index and the rental cost index of the last seven
years. There was a much sharper drop in nominal interests from the early
eighties to the late eighties, with the mortgage interest rate falling from an
average of 14.9 percent in 1981-82 to 9.3 percent in 1987-88. This drop in
mortgage interest rates was associated with a much smaller divergence between
the home price index and the rental cost index.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>There is one final point worth noting
about interest rates and the possibility of a bubble existing in the housing
market. If it really were the case that low interest rates explained the large
gap between the house price index and the rental index, then we would
expect this gap to be reversed once interest rates rise. It seems unlikely
that mortgage interest rates will remain at their current lows indefinitely.
This is especially unlikely given forecasts of large budget deficits for the
foreseeable future. If the current low interest rates explain the surge in
housing prices, then the housing market will plunge once interest rates return
to more normal levels. The interest rate view, while almost certainly wrong
for the reasons noted above, actually supports the argument that housing
prices are experiencing an unsustainable bubble.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3> There are other factors
that could explain a divergence in ownership and rental prices, but these
mostly go the wrong way. For example, mortgage interest is tax deductible for
people who itemize. But, this tax deduction would be worth less if the tax
rate is lower. The tax cuts passed by Congress last year lowered the marginal
tax rate for most taxpayers. This would have reduced the savings from the tax
deduction, thereby making home buying relatively less attractive compared to
renting. The exact same situation would apply to state and local property
taxes.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>In sum, it is indisputable that there has
been a rapid run-up in the cost of purchasing a home over the last seven
years. Since 1995, the real home price index has risen 29.2 percentage points
more than the rate of inflation. Approximately two-thirds of this increase is
due to an increase in the price of owning a home relative to renting, as the
real rent index has risen by just under 10 percent over the same period. There
is little basis for assuming that the increase in rental prices can be
explained by an increase in the demand for housing relative to other
consumption goods, since the nation’s demographics actually suggest that the
relative demand for housing should be decreasing. There is also little basis
for believing that interest rates, or any other factor, can explain the
divergence between the rent index and the HPI. The rent index has slowed
substantially in the last two quarters, as the vacancy rate has risen. Since
these two indexes have generally moved closely together in the past, it is
likely that the HPI will follow the rent index in the months ahead, first
showing considerably slower growth. In later months, it is likely that that
the HPI will fall in real terms, and possibly in nominal terms, until it is
back near its pre-bubble position relative to the rent index.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">The Consequences of the Deflation
of the Housing Bubble
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>The deflation of the housing bubble will
have both significant macroeconomic effects— substantially slowing the
economy—and a large impact on the wealth holdings of most of the nation’s
families. These issues are addressed in turn below.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>The housing bubble has helped sustain the
economy over the last year and a half through both its direct and indirect
effect. The direct effect of the housing bubble has been to increase the
demand for residential housing. Due to the bubble, people are buying houses as
investments which they expect to rise in value, not simply as places to live.
This expectation that prices will continue to rise leads families to buy
larger or more houses than they would if they simply viewed their homes as
places to live. In 2001, housing averaged just under 4.4 percent of nominal
GDP. Its share rose slightly to 4.5 percent in the first quarter of 2002. By
comparison, in the years 1993-1995, before the housing bubble began to
inflate, spending on housing averaged just 3.9 percent of nominal GDP. It is
reasonable to expect that in the wake of the collapse of the housing bubble,
housing expenditures as a share of GDP will return to their pre-bubble levels.
In fact, it is likely that housing expenditures may fall somewhat below this
level, due to the high levels of residential construction during the bubble
years.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>The housing bubble has also spurred
consumption. Housing spurs consumption in two ways. As a direct effect, there
is the purchase of furniture and other household items that is associated with
moving into a new house. The indirect effect is the wealth effect resulting
from having more equity in a home. When a family sees the value of their home
rise, they are likely to feel less need to save for the future, since their
wealth is rising without saving. Higher home values also give families an easy
method to borrow to support additional consumption, since they can refinance
existing mortgages or take out home equity loans against the increased value
of their home. Clearly, this has happened on a large-scale in the last year
and a half, as refinancing soared to record levels.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>A recent study estimated the size of the
wealth effect associated with wealth in housing at approximately 6 percent,
meaning that every dollar increase in the value of residential housing is
associated with 6 cents in additional consumption expenditures (Case, Shiller,
and Quigley 2001). By comparison, conventional estimates of the wealth effect
from stock put the effect at 3 to 4 percent (e.g. see Dynan, K. and D. Maki,
2001 and Maki, D. and M. Palumbo, 2001.) This means that on a per dollar
basis, the impact of wealth in housing is considerably larger than the impact
of wealth in stock. The relatively larger wealth effect from housing can help
to explain why consumption spending has remained strong in 2001 and 2002, even
as the stock market has lost close to 50 percent of its value.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>However, if the housing market is being
driven by a bubble, then this spur to consumption will eventually be lost as
well. This estimate of the housing wealth effect makes it possible to get a
rough estimate of the demand that will be lost from the deflation of the
housing bubble. Table 3 shows estimates of the drop in demand from consumption
and residential investment that will result from the deflation of the housing
bubble. The “big bubble” scenario assumes that the entire increase in the home
price index relative to the rental cost index (some of which took place
in the eighties) represents a bubble, which will be reversed.
<FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Table 3
<FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">The Impact of the Deflation of the
Housing Bubble
<TABLE border=1 cellPadding=0 cellSpacing=0 class=MsoNormalTable
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: medium none; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: medium none; BORDER-TOP: medium none">
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 110.7pt"
vAlign=top width=148>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 110.7pt"
vAlign=top width=148>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Lost Wealth
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 110.7pt"
vAlign=top width=148>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Decline in Annual Consumption
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 1pt solid; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 110.7pt"
vAlign=top width=148>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Decline in Housing
Investment
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 110.7pt"
vAlign=top width=148>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Big Bubble
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 110.7pt"
vAlign=top width=148>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">$2,638 billion
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 110.7pt"
vAlign=top width=148>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">$158 billion
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 110.7pt"
vAlign=top width=148>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">$136 billion
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 110.7pt"
vAlign=top width=148>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Little Bubble
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 110.7pt"
vAlign=top width=148>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">$1,319 billion
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 110.7pt"
vAlign=top width=148>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">$79 billion
<TD
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 110.7pt"
vAlign=top width=148>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">$63 billion
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Source: Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds and
author’s calculations, see appendix.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">The assumption about the impact on housing
investment is large, as is appropriate given the size of the assumed decline
in housing values (22 percent).<FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">[10]<SPAN
class=MsoFootnoteReference>[9] This
scenario assumes that housing investment drops from its current level of 4.5
percent of GDP to the 3.2 percent share of GDP that it hit at the trough of
the 1990-91 recession. The little bubble scenario assumes that only half of
the increase in the home price index relative to the rent index is
attributable to a bubble.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
The reduction in demand resulting in either scenario would be substantial. In
the “big bubble” scenario the reduction in demand would be equal to
approximately 2.9 percent of GDP. If such a decline were not offset with
higher demand elsewhere, this falloff would be associated with an increase in
the unemployment rate of approximately 1.5 percentage points. In the “little
bubble” scenario, the reduction in demand would be equal to approximately 1.4
percent of GDP. Even this more modest impact would be substantial in an
economy that is still suffering from an investment slump in the wake of the
collapse of the tech bubble of the late nineties.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
As important as the macroeconomic effects of the collapse of the housing
bubble may be, the impact on household finances may be even more serious. For
most households, their home is by far their most important asset. If the value
of their home drops unexpectedly with a collapsing housing bubble, then many
families will suddenly find themselves with considerably less wealth. The drop
in the value of a home may matter little to a family that expects to remain in
its current home for a long period of time. However, it could make a great
deal of difference to families that are approaching retirement, who may have
anticipated moving into a smaller home, and using some of the equity in their
current home to provide part of their retirement income. In this case, the end
of the housing bubble would mean that that families would stand to gain much
less potential income by this sort of downsizing. This could substantially
reduce the retirement income of many families.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
The end of the housing bubble could also lead to serious financial
disruptions, since many families are already heavily indebted. The ratio of
non-mortgage debt to disposable income stands at a record high of 21.9
percent, more than three full percentage points above the peak debt ratios hit
in the eighties cycle.<FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">[11]<SPAN
class=MsoFootnoteReference>[10] The
average ratio of homeowners’ equity to the market value of residential real
estate was 55 percent in the first quarter of 2002. While this ratio was
slightly lower in 1997 and 1998, the most recent figure is far below historic
averages. The ratio of equity to value was more than 67 percent throughout the
sixties, seventies, and eighties. Since the population is on average
considerably older than in prior decades, this fall in equity to value ratios
is striking.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
However, equity to value ratios will fall sharply if housing prices were to
drop as a result of a bubble deflation. Table 4 shows equity to value ratios
for the prior 5 decades, and for 2001. It also shows what the equity to value
ratios would be in the event of a sharp drop in housing prices. The “big
bubble collapse” scenario assumes a 22 percent decline in housing prices. The
“small bubble collapse” scenario assumes an 11 percent decline in housing
prices. The table shows that in the big bubble collapse scenario the average
equity to value ratio would fall to just over 40 percent. Even in the “small
bubble collapse” scenario the value to equity ratio would be under 50 percent,
far lower than any prior point in
history.
<FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Table 4
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">
Ratio of Homeowner’s Equity to Market Value
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Period
Equity/Market Value
<FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">1950-59<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 7pt">
77.1%
<FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">1960-69
66.7%
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">1970-79
67.5%
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">1980-89
67.7%
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">1990-99
56.8%
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">2001
55.2%
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Big Bubble
Collapse
42.6%
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Small Bubble
Collapse
49.6%
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Source: Federal Reserve Board, Balance Sheets table
b.100, line 52, and author’s calculations, see text.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
The
impact of this sort of decline in the housing market would of course vary
enormously between regions. The downturn in housing prices will not be spread
evenly across regions, just as boom of the last seven years has not been
spread evenly. (It is not a simple matter to predict which regions will be
hardest hit; high rates of price appreciation over the last decade may reflect
a real improvement in the relative attractiveness of a particular
region.) But the regional variation in housing markets means that if
prices decline nationally by an average of 11 percent, then there will be
regions where the decline is 15 or 20 percent, and if the national decline is
22 percent, then some regions will surely experience declines of 30 percent or
more. With declines of this magnitude, and the low current ratios of equity to
value, many homeowners will be left with mortgages that exceed the value of
their home. Such a situation would add considerable risk to mortgages in
regions that face the sharpest fall in prices.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>It is worth noting that the seventh
district bank of the Federal Reserve system, which is located in
Chicago, reported last fall that several banks in the district
were concerned that housing was over-valued and were limiting their loans
accordingly.<FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">[12]<SPAN
class=MsoFootnoteReference>[11]
While some banks, at least in the seventh district, may have restrained their
mortgage lending, it is unlikely that most banks across the country showed the
same caution. Therefore, a sharp plunge in housing prices is likely to lead to
a large rise in mortgage defaults, and place serious stress on a banking
system that already is suffering as a result of several major corporate
bankruptcies.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">The Post-Bubble
Economy
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>The growth spurt at the end of the
nineties was characterized by three bubbles: the stock market bubble, the
dollar bubble, and the housing bubble. The interaction from the unwinding of
these three bubbles will seriously complicate the economic picture, presenting
a considerably more difficult challenge than dealing with any of the bubbles
in isolation.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>The effect of a collapse in the stock and
housing market are similar—both will lead to reduced demand as consumers
cutback spending when they see their wealth diminished. In both cases, there
are depressing effects on other sectors as well. In the case of the stock
market, the collapse of the bubble effectively ended a major source of
financing for the tech sector. While much of this investment may have been
wasted, it did provide an important source of demand for the economy at the
peak years of the bubble. Similarly, the housing bubble has been a major force
propelling residential construction, as builders have responded to rapidly
rising home prices. When this bubble bursts, homebuilding is likely to fall
off substantially.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>The bursting of both bubbles also leads
to important secondary effects. In the case of the stock bubble, these include
diminished endowments for foundations and universities, under-funded pensions,
and declining capital gains tax revenue at all levels of government. These
secondary effects will compound the more direct contractionary impact of the
bursting of the bubble, as the non-profit sector and state and local
governments are forced to make cutbacks, and firms with defined benefit
pension plans will have to increase contributions to their workers’ pensions.
In the case of the housing bubble, a sharp decline in homeowners’ equity and a
resulting wave of mortgage defaults could leave much of the financial system
in a precarious position, especially in the wake of several large corporate
bankruptcies.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>The best policy response to the collapse
of these bubbles is strong stimulus. This is exactly what the Federal Reserve
Board has done with its low interest rate policy of the last year and half.
The federal government has also helped to stimulate the economy, with the
budget shifting from a surplus of 2.4 percent of GDP in 2000 to a deficit
equal to approximately 1.5 percent of GDP in 2002. While this shift will not
be large enough to fully offset the impact of the collapse of both bubbles, it
is a significant step in the right direction.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>However, the collapse of the dollar
bubble produces a different set of problems. The immediate impact of the drop
in the dollar is to raise the price of imports to the United
States while reducing the cost of U.S. exports to foreigners. This will have
the positive effect of stimulating net exports, which will help boost the
economy. However, the negative side of this situation is that higher priced
imports will lead to higher inflation. Imports currently account for about 15
percent of GDP. If import prices rise by 10 percent as a result of a falling
dollar, this would translate into an additional 1.5 percentage points of
inflation. While a rise in the inflation rate of this size (e.g. from 2.0
percent to 3.5 percent) is not especially harmful by itself, the Fed may
respond to such a rise in inflation with higher interest rates, thereby
slowing economic growth. It is also possible that such a rise in inflation
might lead to higher long-term interest rates, even without the action from
the Fed.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>While the decline in the dollar will
complicate the task of designing effective macroeconomic policy, it is
inevitable, and it will create less hardship the sooner it happens. The nation
cannot run current account deficits equal to 4.5 to 5.0 percent of GDP
indefinitely, just as it could not run budget deficits of this magnitude
indefinitely. The current account corresponds to net foreign purchases of
U.S. financial assets. The supply of available financial assets
would be exhausted within a couple of decades, if trade deficits resulting
from the high dollar remain constant as a share of GDP. The sooner the dollar
is brought down to a more sustainable level, the less it will have to fall.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>At present, the economy is also badly in
need of the stimulus that would be created by increased net exports. In the
wake of the collapse of the stock market bubble, investment spending has
fallen by an amount equal to approximately 1.2 percent of GDP compared to its
2000 peak. With the collapse of the housing bubble, housing construction is
likely to fall back by 0.6 to 1.3 percentage points of GDP. If the
savings rate were to return to just 5 percent, approximately half its historic
average, then it would lead to a falloff in consumption equal to approximately
2 percentage points of GDP. If the savings rate rose back to its historic
average (which would be desirable with so many baby boomers nearing
retirement), the falloff in consumption would be close to 6 percentage points
of GDP. The shift from a federal budget surplus to a deficit is an important
source of stimulus in this situation, but there will be a need for
considerably more stimulus. Without a sharp reduction in the trade deficit, it
is hard to see how this can come about.<SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Conclusion
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>In the last seven years, home sale prices
have increased nearly 30 percent more than the overall rate of inflation.
Approximately one-third of this increase corresponds to an increase in the
price of rental housing relative to other goods and services. The other two
thirds is attributable to an increase in home purchase prices relative to
rental prices.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>This paper shows that there is no obvious
explanation for a sudden increase in the relative demand for housing which
could explain the price rise. There is also no obvious explanation for the
increase in home purchase prices relative to rental prices. In the absence of
any other credible theory, the only plausible explanation for the sudden surge
in home prices is the existence of a housing bubble. This means that a major
factor driving housing sales is the expectation that housing prices will be
higher in the future. While this process can sustain rising prices for a
period of time, it must eventually come to an end.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>At present market values, the collapse of
the housing bubble will lead to a loss of between $1.3 trillion and $2.6
trillion of housing wealth. This collapse will slow the economy both by
derailing housing construction and by its impact on consumption through the
wealth effect. In addition, millions of families are likely to face severe
strains in their personal finances. The average ratio of equity to home values
is already near record lows. This ratio will plunge precipitously if the
housing bubble collapses, leaving many families with little or no equity in
their homes. This situation is especially troublesome since the population is
comparatively old, with much of the baby boom generation on the edge of
retirement.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>The Japanese economy experienced
simultaneous bubbles in its housing and stock markets in the late
eighties. The collapse of these two bubbles has left Japan’s
economy nearly stagnant for more than a decade. The United States faces the
same sorts of risk from the collapse of its stock market and housing bubbles.
It was poor economic policy to allow these bubbles to develop in the first
place, but if we follow the right policies in dealing with the fallout from
the collapse of these bubbles, it should still be possible for the United
States to escape Japan’s fate. <BR clear=all
style="PAGE-BREAK-BEFORE: always">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">References
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Baker, D. 1996. “Getting Prices Right: A
Methodologically Consistent Consumer Price Index, 1953-94.”
Washington, D.C.: Economic Policy Institute.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Case, K, R. Shiller, and J. Quigley, 2001. “Comparing
Wealth Effects: The Stock Market Versus the Housing Market,”
Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Dynan, K. and D. Maki, 2001. "Does the Stock Market
Matter for Consumption?" Working Paper 2001-23. Washington,
D.C.: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Board.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Maki, D. and M. Palumbo, 2001. "Disentangling the
Wealth Effect: A Cohort Analysis of Household Saving in the 1990s." Working
Paper 2001-21. Washington, D.C.: Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve Board.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Office of Federal Housing Enterprise
Oversight, 2002. “House Price Index, First Quarter 2002.” Washington, D.C.:
Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.<BR clear=all
style="PAGE-BREAK-BEFORE: always">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Appendix
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">The first column in Table 1 shows the housing share in
total consumer expenditures in the base year for the consumer price indices
since 1953. These years were selected, since data from the consumer
expenditure surveys from these years are available. The share is equal to the
sum of the shares of the owner equivalent rent and rent components. For the
years from 1951 to 1972-3, the survey used a home ownership component instead
of owner equivalent rent. Baker 1996 calculates a rental equivalence
share based on estimates of the portion of the homeownership component that
went to non-rent expenses. The second column in the table shows the rental
index from the consumer price index. This index was used exclusively, since it
is available for the whole period, and there were several aggregation problems
which created an overstatement in the owners’ equivalent rent index for part
of the nineties. The third column shows a merged index of the CPI-U-X1 from
1951 to 1978 and the CPI-U-RS from 1978 to 1995, the years when it is
available.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Figure 1 shows the rent index from the CPI and the
OFHEO Home Price Index from the first quarter of 1975 to the first quarter of
2002, taking the first quarter of each year. The indexes are deflated by the
CPI-non-shelter index.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Tables 2a and 2b show the cumulative 5 year and 1 year
rates of price increase for the metropolitan areas with the 10 highest and 10
lowest rates of price increase, according to OFHEO Home Price Index.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Table 3 shows the lost housing wealth assuming
alternatively that housing prices decline by 22 percent in the big bubble
scenario and 11 percent in the little bubble scenario. The figure for total
housing wealth is taken from the 2001 estimate of the value real estate owned
by households (Federal Reserve Board Flow of Funds table B.100 line 2 and 3).
The wealth effect is assumed to be 6 percent as indicated in Case, Shiller,
and Quigley, 2001. <BR clear=all
style="PAGE-BREAK-BEFORE: always"><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Appendix Table 1<SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Home Price Increases By State – Annual
Averages
<TABLE border=0 cellPadding=0 cellSpacing=0 class=MsoNormalTable
style="BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse; MARGIN-LEFT: 3.9pt">
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"> <FONT color=black
face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Rank
(5-year)
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5-year
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">1-year
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: black 1pt solid; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">since 80
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Alabama<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">41
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.4%
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.6%
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.7%
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Alaska<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">47
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.6
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.9
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">2.3
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Arizona<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">17
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5.7
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.5
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.8
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Arkansas<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">46
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.8
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.0
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.2
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">California<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">9.8
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">7.4
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5.5
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Colorado<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">6
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">8.6
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5.9
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5.3
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Connecticut<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">11
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">6.9
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">8.0
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5.4
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Delaware<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">23
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5.3
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">6.5
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5.3
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">District of
Columbia<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">2
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">10.0
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">11.7
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5.2
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Florida<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">13
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">6.6
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">8.3
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.1
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Georgia<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">14
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">6.6
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.8
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.6
<TD height=19
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 14.15pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Hawaii<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=19
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 14.15pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">51
<TD height=19
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 14.15pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">2.4
<TD height=19
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 14.15pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">6.1
<TD height=19
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 14.15pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.6
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Idaho<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">48
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.4
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.1
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.7
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Illinois<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">27
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5.0
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5.4
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.6
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Indiana<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">40
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.4
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.7
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.9
<TD height=16
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 11.9pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Iowa<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=16
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 11.9pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">28
<TD height=16
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 11.9pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.9
<TD height=16
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 11.9pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.3
<TD height=16
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 11.9pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.4
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Kansas<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">20
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5.5
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.5
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.3
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Kentucky<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">34
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.7
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.8
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.1
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Louisiana<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">31
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.8
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.9
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">2.6
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Maine<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">7
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">7.8
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">8.6
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5.5
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Maryland<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">24
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5.3
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">7.8
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.8
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Massachusetts<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">1
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">10.6
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">10.1
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">7.7
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Michigan<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">12
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">6.7
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.8
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.9
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Minnesota<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">8.8
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">9.0
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.7
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Mississippi<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">36
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.5
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.1
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.1
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Missouri<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">22
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5.5
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5.5
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.9
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Montana<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">35
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.6
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5.7
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.9
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Nebraska<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">33
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.7
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.7
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.7
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Nevada<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">44
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.9
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5.5
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.5
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">New
Hampshire<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">10.0
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">9.9
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5.6
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">New
Jersey<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">10
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">7.3
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">9.4
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5.7
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">New
Mexico<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">50
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">2.8
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">2.9
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.7
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">New
York<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">8
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">7.7
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">7.7
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">6.6
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">North
Carolina<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">29
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.8
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.4
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.5
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">North
Dakota<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">45
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.8
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">2.6
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">2.7
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Ohio<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">30
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.8
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.4
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.1
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Oklahoma<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">32
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.7
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.2
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">2.2
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Oregon<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">37
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.5
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.8
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.8
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Pennsylvania<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">38
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.5
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5.9
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.6
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Rhode
Island<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">9
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">7.6
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">12.1
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5.9
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">South
Carolina<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">18
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5.7
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.8
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.2
<TD height=22
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 16.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">South
Dakota<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
<TD height=22
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 16.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">26
<TD height=22
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 16.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5.0
<TD height=22
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 16.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.6
<TD height=22
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 16.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.7
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Tennessee<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">39
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.4
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.3
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.0
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Texas<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">21
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5.5
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">2.9
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">2.7
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Utah<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">49
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.3
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">1.9
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.4
<TD height=22
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 16.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Vermont<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=22
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 16.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">19
<TD height=22
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 16.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5.6
<TD height=22
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 16.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">7.6
<TD height=22
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 16.4pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5.0
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Virginia<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">15
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">6.1
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">7.5
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.7
<TD height=11
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 8.3pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Washington<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=11
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 8.3pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">16
<TD height=11
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 8.3pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">6.0
<TD height=11
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 8.3pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.0
<TD height=11
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 8.3pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5.2
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">West
Virginia<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">43
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.2
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">6.1
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">3.1
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Wisconsin<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">25
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5.0
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.5
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.1
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: windowtext 1pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 136.5pt"
vAlign=top width=182>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">Wyoming<FONT
color=black face=Arial>
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">42
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1in"
vAlign=top width=96>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">4.3
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 81pt"
vAlign=top width=108>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">5.8
<TD height=17
style="BORDER-BOTTOM: black 1pt solid; BORDER-LEFT: medium none; BORDER-RIGHT: black 1pt solid; BORDER-TOP: medium none; HEIGHT: 12.5pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0in; PADDING-LEFT: 5.4pt; PADDING-RIGHT: 5.4pt; PADDING-TOP: 0in; WIDTH: 1.25in"
vAlign=top width=120>
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">2.4
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
<FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">[1]<SPAN
class=MsoFootnoteReference>[1] Dean
Baker is co-Director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research. Andrea
Blatchford, Debayani Kar, and Mark Weisbrot assisted with comments, research
and/or the editing of this paper.
<FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
<FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">[3]<SPAN
class=MsoFootnoteReference>[2] This
figure is based on House Price Index from the Office of Federal Housing
Enterprise Oversight.
<FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">[4]<SPAN
class=MsoFootnoteReference>[3] This
figure is obtained by calculating the difference between the current market
value of residential housing owned by the household sector (Federal Reserve
Board, Flow of Funds Table B.100, lines 2 and 3) and the market value if home
prices had simply risen at a non-shelter rate of inflation since the first
quarter of 1995 (13.7 percent, based on the Bureau of Labor Statistics index
of the CPI, excluding shelter).
<FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">[5]<SPAN
class=MsoFootnoteReference>[4] The
concept of owner’s equivalent rent was developed by the Bureau of Labor
Statistics to approximate the implicit rental cost incurred by a household
that owns its own home. It is intended to remove costs that are directly
attributable to ownership, such as brokerage fees for realtors. In this way it
is supposed to measure the cost of consuming the home, rather than any
expenses that might be attributable to the purchase of the home as an
investment. The years shown in Table 1 were selected because they correspond
to comprehensive revisions of the consumer price index, which required the
Bureau of Labor Statistics to carefully estimate the portion of household
expenditures that went to each category of consumption. This issue is
explained in more detail in the appendix. The price index numbers refer to the
first years of the re-based index, 1953, 1964, 1978, 1987, and 1998,
respectively.
<FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">[6]<SPAN
class=MsoFootnoteReference>[5]
According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ consumer expenditure
survey, the share of consumer expenditures going to shelter peaks at 20.3
percent for households headed by people between ages 25-34. It falls back
slightly to 19.8 percent of expenditures for households headed by people
between ages 35-44. The share of expenditures devoted to shelter falls further
to 18.0 percent for households between ages 45 to 54, and to just 16.7 percent
for households between ages 55 to 64. With the baby boomers moving into the
latter two age groupings, the changing demographic structure suggests a
significant decline in the demand for housing
[ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/ce/share/2000/age.txt].
<FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">[7]<SPAN
class=MsoFootnoteReference>[6] The
owners’ equivalent rent index had a comparable slowdown, going from a 4.8
percent rate of increase in the second half of 2001, to 4.0 percent in the
first quarter, to 3.2 percent in the second quarter of 2002.
<FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">[8]<SPAN
class=MsoFootnoteReference><FONT
face="Times New Roman">[7] Housing Vacancy Survey, Second
Quarter, 2002,
[http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs/q202tab1.html].
<FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">[9]<SPAN
class=MsoFootnoteReference>[8] Data
on mortgage interest rates were taken from the Federal Reserve Board
[http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data/m/cm.txt]
<FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">[10]<SPAN
class=MsoFootnoteReference>[9] It
is important to note that this “big bubble” scenario is not extreme. It is
likely that part of the recent rise in the rental cost index is itself
attributable to the bubble, as higher home sale prices have led to higher
rental prices. If the house price index fell back to the level of the
non-shelter CPI, a genuinely extreme scenario, it would imply a decline in
housing prices of 30.8 percent from their levels in the first quarter of
2002.
<FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">[11]<SPAN
class=MsoFootnoteReference>[10]
This ratio is derived from the May consumer credit report from the Federal
Reserve Board and the May personal income report for the Commerce Department.
This figure understates actual indebtedness compared to prior periods, since
there has been a huge growth in car leasing over the last decade. Car leases
are equivalent to debt for practical purposes, and can be seen as a substitute
for purchasing a new car, but are not included in the Federal Reserve Board’s
debt data. If lease obligations were added to debt, it would raise the level
of consumer indebtedness by approximately 2 percentage points.
<FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><FONT
face="Times New Roman" size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: 'Times New Roman'; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">[12]<SPAN
class=MsoFootnoteReference>[11]
This can be found in the Beige Book from September 19, 2001
[http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/beigebook/2001/20010919/default.htm].To
unsubscribe from this group, send an email
to:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxYour
use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>Yahoo! Terms of Service.
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email
to:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxYour use
of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the <A
href="http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/";>Yahoo! Terms of Service.
Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
ADVERTISEMENT
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
Attachment:
Description: ""
Attachment:
Description: ""
Attachment:
Description: ""
|