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RE: Re[2]: [RT] GEN: DEFLATION AND GOLD....



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"Time" was the 
approach that Japan took.......
 
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  <FONT face=Tahoma 
  size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Bob Heisler 
  [mailto:BHEISLER@xxxxxxxxx]Sent: Wednesday, August 21, 2002 5:51 
  PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: Re[2]: 
  [RT] GEN: DEFLATION AND GOLD....
  Thanks Jim.
   
  I get tired of these guys trashing people in 
  positions they no nothing about...that's the media's 
  job....hehehe.
   
  And you're right, things are not as bad as one 
  might think and actually I'm surprised they're not worse than they are.  
  Sure, we could use some pro-growth measures which will be proposed next week 
  (if you believe the media), but the best cure for this post-bubble hangover is 
  simply Time.
   
  Bob
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    ----- Original Message ----- 
    <DIV 
    style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From: 
    Jim Johnson 
    
    To: <A 
    title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
    href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>Bob Heisler 
    Sent: Wednesday, August 21, 2002 7:27 
    AM
    Subject: Re[2]: [RT] GEN: DEFLATION AND 
    GOLD....
    Hello Bob,Amen.  And let's consider for the 
    moment that the economy is simplynot in bad shape on a historical 
    basis--look at some econ charts ofemployment, hourly wages, inflation, 
    production/utilization.  Lookback more than 2-3 years and you'll 
    see things are pretty good.  Lookat almost any country on earth at 
    any time in history and the compslook pretty good.  Besides being 
    the richest and most comfortablepeople in history, they are also the 
    most spoiled.Gotta go, time to put the flag up.Best 
    regards,Jim 
    Johnson                           
    mailto:jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxx-- Wednesday, August 21, 2002, 6:52:56 
    AM, you wrote:BH> I'm just a lowly trader who is not an economist 
    or a CNBC talking head and am therefore grossly under-qualified to either 
    give advice on economic/fiscal policy or criticize/praise the 
    currentBH> economic team.BH> But what I do know is that 
    the current administration inherited a post-bubble economy and a post-bubble 
    bear market (the NDX was 45% off its all-time high when Bush took 
    office).  Toss in 911 andBH> even someone as under-qualified as 
    myself can see that their timing could have been better....like inheriting a 
    recovery and the early stages of the PC revolution in the early 
    90's.BH> I hear a lot of bashing of these folks but I hear 
    nothing from the critics on what we should be doing - except raising taxes 
    and increasing government spending/entitlements.  Even the 
    infamousBH> Lord Rubin, who bravely fled to Singapore once the Enron 
    news came out, has offered only these solutions.  But if history is to 
    be our guide then that type of policy is exactly what we shouldn'tBH> 
    adapt.BH> What I'd like to hear from the critics are some 
    concrete ideas on what should be done as opposed to the daily/hourly 
    criticisms and negative sound bites.  And those ideas should include a 
    plan onBH> how to get any new policy changes through the Congress 
    (particularly the Senate).BH> I look forward to being 
    educated.BH> BobBH>   ----- Original Message 
    ----- BH>   From: M. Simms BH>   To: 
    realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx BH>   Sent: Tuesday, August 20, 
    2002 10:27 PMBH>   Subject: RE: [RT] GEN: DEFLATION AND 
    GOLD....BH>   In the inflationary depression 
    scenario, it would be the best and only medicine....;BH>   
    however, in the second, it could be a disaster if done over a short period 
    of time (1-3 years), since the largest growth industry right now is the US 
    government... and attempts to cut-backBH> staff would only lead to 
    more unemployment and a lower tax base.BH>   Once the big 
    government train is rolling, it's gotta be first slowed-down, so that 
    private industry can respond properly, and that will take a long period of 
    time (3-6 years).BH>   Funny, on CNBC tonite, they had 
    a quote from the editor of Fortune who is calling Bush's economic advisors 
    the Keystone Kops !!!BH>   Unquestionably, near the 
    anniversary of 9-11, the economic future of the country hangs "in the 
    balance".....recent articles suggest that NYC's economy is STILL in shambles 
    with many bankruptBH> vendors and small businesses, etc. Some 
    financial firms who lost 20-50% of their staff, STILL HAVEN'T REHIRED 
    replacements !!! BH>   The Fed's decision on Sept 24th 
    looms large and should be a HUGE event....BH>   watch how 
    the stock market anticipates their action over the next 4 
    weeks....BH>   As always, buy the rumor, sell the 
    news.BH>     -----Original 
    Message-----BH>     From: Charles Meyer 
    [mailto:chaze@xxxxxxxx]BH>     Sent: Tuesday, 
    August 20, 2002 7:38 PMBH>     To: 
    realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxBH>     Subject: Re: 
    [RT] GEN: DEFLATION AND GOLD....BH>     
    Simms-BH>     Yes; I'm back with another 
    question.<g>  OK; now let me please ask this.  
    WouldBH>     the cure for EITHER scenerio 
    (inflationary depression or deflationary 
    depression)BH>     be to dramatically cut both 
    taxes and spending?  Or; would the cure be different 
    forBH>     each potential scenerio?  I can't 
    see ANY of these politicians taking steps to do either.  Tks for your 
    patience.BH>     
    chasBH>       ----- Original Message 
    ----- BH>       From: M. Simms 
    BH>       To: 
    realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx BH>       
    Sent: Tuesday, August 20, 2002 1:37 
    AMBH>       Subject: RE: [RT] GEN: 
    DEFLATION AND GOLD....BH>       
    The first would occur only if actions to stop the second one 
    fail.BH>       Tell-tale signs of 
    the second:BH>       1) steepening 
    yield curveBH>       2) widening 
    corporate vs. treasury bond 
    spreadBH>       3) CRB index 
    decliningBH>       4) real estate 
    prices stall, then reverseBH>       5) 
    falling equity pricesBH>       6) 
    increased bankruptcy 
    levelsBH>         
    -----Original 
    Message-----BH>         From: 
    Charles Meyer 
    [mailto:chaze@xxxxxxxx]BH>         
    Sent: Monday, August 19, 2002 1:43 
    PMBH>         To: 
    realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxBH>         
    Subject: Re: [RT] GEN: DEFLATION AND 
    GOLD....BH>         
    Simms-BH>         You 
    wrote that:    "once that ball gets rolling, the government 
    has no choice except to pull an "Argentina" and massively reflate...if they 
    can do so in time.  If they can't, wham,BH> depression 
    occurs..."BH>         Is 
    the scenerio then EITHER inflationary depression OR deflationary 
    depression;BH>         
    assuming things got out of 
    hand?BH>         
    chasBH>           
    ----- Original Message ----- 
    BH>           From: 
    M. Simms 
    BH>           To: 
    realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
    BH>           Sent: 
    Monday, August 19, 2002 12:27 
    PMBH>           
    Subject: RE: [RT] GEN: DEFLATION AND 
    GOLD....BH>           
    DEPRESSION and DEFLATION not EXACTLY the 
    same......BH>           
    yes, in a depression, real assets worth nothing, and the US dollar worth 
    little, so gold shines....can't be printed, can't be 
    forged.....BH>           
    BUT With a slower evolving deflationary scenario, all assets groups 
    decline......pricing power is 
    gone.BH>           
    This is why everyone is watching the housing market so 
    carefully.....BH>           
    as once THAT market begins to decline, then we are really in trouble and a 
    depression becomes likely since mortgage holders (banks, etc) begin to 
    foreclose on properties whose value isBH> less than the principal on 
    the mortgage 
    due.BH>           
    Once that ball gets rolling, the government has no choice except to pull an 
    "Argentina" and massively reflate.....if they can do so in 
    time.BH>           
    If they can't, wham, depression 
    occurs....BH>           
    if they do catch it in time, then massive inflation results with mortgage 
    holders and other creditors, the big 
    losers.BH>             
    -----Original 
    Message-----BH>             
    From: Charles Meyer 
    [mailto:chaze@xxxxxxxx]BH>             
    Sent: Monday, August 19, 2002 11:39 
    AMBH>             
    To: REAL 
    TRADERSBH>             
    Subject: [RT] GEN: DEFLATION AND 
    GOLD....BH>             
    Group-BH>             
    Excerpt below from interview which references price of HM during the great 
    depression.  I wanted to know Pretcher's logic for expecting the 
    opposite in the event of a deflation thisBH> time around.  
    BH>             
    chasBH>             
    ==========================================================BH>             
    TAYLOR: Well, I have had some experience in analyzing gold shares in all 
    sorts of markets. Homestake Mining shared with me their daily share prices 
    dating all the way back to 1888BH> through 1998. During the 
    depression, Homestake Shares appreciated very greatly despite the fact that 
    we experienced deflation rather than 
    inflation.BH>             
    BATRA: Did the price of Homestake rise right from the beginning 
    or...BH>             
    TAYLOR: No, actually Homestake's share price initially fell too from $83.50 
    just before the crash to $65 about two weeks after the crash. So perhaps the 
    law of substitution didBH> initially apply. But from November 15th 
    and thereafter, Homestake's shares rose dramatically, to a high of over $500 
    by 1936. And during 1932, when the DJIA had lost 90%, Homestake's shares 
    hadBH> reached $162. So investors who diversified their portfolios 
    with a little Homestake were able to travel through the Great Depression 
    relatively unscathed, while those who owned only the Dow JonesBH> 
    Industrials, were 
    devastated.BH>             
    BATRA: Ok, what I am saying is that timing is important. Gold stocks are 
    also going to do very well. However, at this stage, my advice is to start 
    preparing yourself by buying goldBH> bullion. Then begin buying gold 
    shares the moment there is a whiff of inflation or when the market begins to 
    favor 
    them.BH>             
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