|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Hello Bob,
Amen. And let's consider for the moment that the economy is simply
not in bad shape on a historical basis--look at some econ charts of
employment, hourly wages, inflation, production/utilization. Look
back more than 2-3 years and you'll see things are pretty good. Look
at almost any country on earth at any time in history and the comps
look pretty good. Besides being the richest and most comfortable
people in history, they are also the most spoiled.
Gotta go, time to put the flag up.
Best regards,
Jim Johnson mailto:jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxx
--
Wednesday, August 21, 2002, 6:52:56 AM, you wrote:
BH> I'm just a lowly trader who is not an economist or a CNBC talking head and am therefore grossly under-qualified to either give advice on economic/fiscal policy or criticize/praise the current
BH> economic team.
BH> But what I do know is that the current administration inherited a post-bubble economy and a post-bubble bear market (the NDX was 45% off its all-time high when Bush took office). Toss in 911 and
BH> even someone as under-qualified as myself can see that their timing could have been better....like inheriting a recovery and the early stages of the PC revolution in the early 90's.
BH> I hear a lot of bashing of these folks but I hear nothing from the critics on what we should be doing - except raising taxes and increasing government spending/entitlements. Even the infamous
BH> Lord Rubin, who bravely fled to Singapore once the Enron news came out, has offered only these solutions. But if history is to be our guide then that type of policy is exactly what we shouldn't
BH> adapt.
BH> What I'd like to hear from the critics are some concrete ideas on what should be done as opposed to the daily/hourly criticisms and negative sound bites. And those ideas should include a plan on
BH> how to get any new policy changes through the Congress (particularly the Senate).
BH> I look forward to being educated.
BH> Bob
BH> ----- Original Message -----
BH> From: M. Simms
BH> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
BH> Sent: Tuesday, August 20, 2002 10:27 PM
BH> Subject: RE: [RT] GEN: DEFLATION AND GOLD....
BH> In the inflationary depression scenario, it would be the best and only medicine....;
BH> however, in the second, it could be a disaster if done over a short period of time (1-3 years), since the largest growth industry right now is the US government... and attempts to cut-back
BH> staff would only lead to more unemployment and a lower tax base.
BH> Once the big government train is rolling, it's gotta be first slowed-down, so that private industry can respond properly, and that will take a long period of time (3-6 years).
BH> Funny, on CNBC tonite, they had a quote from the editor of Fortune who is calling Bush's economic advisors the Keystone Kops !!!
BH> Unquestionably, near the anniversary of 9-11, the economic future of the country hangs "in the balance".....recent articles suggest that NYC's economy is STILL in shambles with many bankrupt
BH> vendors and small businesses, etc. Some financial firms who lost 20-50% of their staff, STILL HAVEN'T REHIRED replacements !!!
BH> The Fed's decision on Sept 24th looms large and should be a HUGE event....
BH> watch how the stock market anticipates their action over the next 4 weeks....
BH> As always, buy the rumor, sell the news.
BH> -----Original Message-----
BH> From: Charles Meyer [mailto:chaze@xxxxxxxx]
BH> Sent: Tuesday, August 20, 2002 7:38 PM
BH> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
BH> Subject: Re: [RT] GEN: DEFLATION AND GOLD....
BH> Simms-
BH> Yes; I'm back with another question.<g> OK; now let me please ask this. Would
BH> the cure for EITHER scenerio (inflationary depression or deflationary depression)
BH> be to dramatically cut both taxes and spending? Or; would the cure be different for
BH> each potential scenerio? I can't see ANY of these politicians taking steps to do either. Tks for your patience.
BH> chas
BH> ----- Original Message -----
BH> From: M. Simms
BH> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
BH> Sent: Tuesday, August 20, 2002 1:37 AM
BH> Subject: RE: [RT] GEN: DEFLATION AND GOLD....
BH> The first would occur only if actions to stop the second one fail.
BH> Tell-tale signs of the second:
BH> 1) steepening yield curve
BH> 2) widening corporate vs. treasury bond spread
BH> 3) CRB index declining
BH> 4) real estate prices stall, then reverse
BH> 5) falling equity prices
BH> 6) increased bankruptcy levels
BH> -----Original Message-----
BH> From: Charles Meyer [mailto:chaze@xxxxxxxx]
BH> Sent: Monday, August 19, 2002 1:43 PM
BH> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
BH> Subject: Re: [RT] GEN: DEFLATION AND GOLD....
BH> Simms-
BH> You wrote that: "once that ball gets rolling, the government has no choice except to pull an "Argentina" and massively reflate...if they can do so in time. If they can't, wham,
BH> depression occurs..."
BH> Is the scenerio then EITHER inflationary depression OR deflationary depression;
BH> assuming things got out of hand?
BH> chas
BH> ----- Original Message -----
BH> From: M. Simms
BH> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
BH> Sent: Monday, August 19, 2002 12:27 PM
BH> Subject: RE: [RT] GEN: DEFLATION AND GOLD....
BH> DEPRESSION and DEFLATION not EXACTLY the same......
BH> yes, in a depression, real assets worth nothing, and the US dollar worth little, so gold shines....can't be printed, can't be forged.....
BH> BUT With a slower evolving deflationary scenario, all assets groups decline......pricing power is gone.
BH> This is why everyone is watching the housing market so carefully.....
BH> as once THAT market begins to decline, then we are really in trouble and a depression becomes likely since mortgage holders (banks, etc) begin to foreclose on properties whose value is
BH> less than the principal on the mortgage due.
BH> Once that ball gets rolling, the government has no choice except to pull an "Argentina" and massively reflate.....if they can do so in time.
BH> If they can't, wham, depression occurs....
BH> if they do catch it in time, then massive inflation results with mortgage holders and other creditors, the big losers.
BH> -----Original Message-----
BH> From: Charles Meyer [mailto:chaze@xxxxxxxx]
BH> Sent: Monday, August 19, 2002 11:39 AM
BH> To: REAL TRADERS
BH> Subject: [RT] GEN: DEFLATION AND GOLD....
BH> Group-
BH> Excerpt below from interview which references price of HM during the great depression. I wanted to know Pretcher's logic for expecting the opposite in the event of a deflation this
BH> time around.
BH> chas
BH> ==========================================================
BH> TAYLOR: Well, I have had some experience in analyzing gold shares in all sorts of markets. Homestake Mining shared with me their daily share prices dating all the way back to 1888
BH> through 1998. During the depression, Homestake Shares appreciated very greatly despite the fact that we experienced deflation rather than inflation.
BH> BATRA: Did the price of Homestake rise right from the beginning or...
BH> TAYLOR: No, actually Homestake's share price initially fell too from $83.50 just before the crash to $65 about two weeks after the crash. So perhaps the law of substitution did
BH> initially apply. But from November 15th and thereafter, Homestake's shares rose dramatically, to a high of over $500 by 1936. And during 1932, when the DJIA had lost 90%, Homestake's shares had
BH> reached $162. So investors who diversified their portfolios with a little Homestake were able to travel through the Great Depression relatively unscathed, while those who owned only the Dow Jones
BH> Industrials, were devastated.
BH> BATRA: Ok, what I am saying is that timing is important. Gold stocks are also going to do very well. However, at this stage, my advice is to start preparing yourself by buying gold
BH> bullion. Then begin buying gold shares the moment there is a whiff of inflation or when the market begins to favor them.
BH> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
BH> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
BH> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
BH> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
BH> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
BH> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
BH> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
BH> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
BH> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
BH> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
BH> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
BH> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
BH> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
BH> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
BH> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
BH> Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
BH> ADVERTISEMENT
BH> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
BH> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
BH> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service.
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
4 DVDs Free +s&p Join Now
http://us.click.yahoo.com/pt6YBB/NXiEAA/Ey.GAA/zMEolB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->
To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|