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I admit the market proved me wrong about the
scenario I presented. >>>
John,
The market will
prove to everyone
at some time
or another on a day
to day basis that
a scenario can and
will be wrong at times.
Today is an example for me.
My hurst 4 analysis
for today's trading
day had a
high mid day and a decline
into the close.
I was sorta surprised, but
that was what it projected.
There have been other times when I've
been surprised by
a projection; amazingly
price followed the
path projected
well. So, there
was a doubt in my mind
about todays projection
because
of the following reasons.
Mainly because of the
strong reversal and close
yesterday on good
internals. Also, the
hourly chart I did for the week
showed a decline
into a cycle low mid-am on
yesterday and a nice move up
into
late week.
This is a higher time period
than what I use for intraday
and can very well be dominant over
a smaller time frame cycle as
most know.
I had thought if we
did get a decline into the
close that it would be mild
because of the higher
time frame cycle.
The first
3 trading days of the
week; the intraday smaller time frame cycles
have
been precisely
on target.
Statistically I also knew
it
"could" be an inaccurate day.
Nonetheless, <FONT face=Arial
size=2>I certainly did not ignore
what the intraday pattern
for today showed and also
use price as my best indicator.
For me to ignore it would be
like getting a system signal and trying
to
pick and choose what signals I
take!
As I said,
there's
been several times that a projection I
thought may
not work, amazingly
has.
I shorted at mid-day the ndx at 984, but
with the
decline; it held support
very
strong. I
exited
at 964.
Moral of my story is;
I was looking for a "possibility"
of a decline into the close
as
a scenario based
on one of my best tools for
trading.<FONT
size=2> (price
is number one) That scenario did
not unfold.
I had to adjust and
reacted to what actually did
occur in price this
afternoon as
I am sure that you did the
same for today.
Best,
Rhonda
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
John Cappello
To: <A title=kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>Kent Rollins ; <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>RealTraders
Cc: <A title=MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, August 15, 2002 3:16
PM
Subject: [RT] Finale Thursday Prognosis
of S&P
OK Everyone,I admit the market proved me wrong
about the scenario I presented. But it would be nice to see more of
you go out on a limb with a concept for the following day. Shared ideas
whether right or wrong is a great learning and humbling
experience.Sincerely,John------------------
Reply Separator --------------------Originally From: "Kent Rollins" <<A
href="mailto:kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Subject:
[RT] Thursday Prognosis of S&PDate: 08/15/2002 01:56pmTell
me again how DYN and AOL aren't factored into the
markets...Kent----- Original Message ----- From: "John
Cappello" <jvc689@xxxxxxx>To: "Kent Rollins"
<kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent:
Thursday, August 15, 2002 12:17 AMSubject: Thursday Prognosis of
S&PGood to have your opinion though I disagree in several
areas. No one really knows what is factored in the market.Much of
the buying came from those selling low yielding bonds to get into equities
according to newsletters I receive. The put/call ratio is 0.7.I
definitely do not believe AOL Time Warner remake of past profits is in the
market.I have the same belief that the Dynegy refusal to sign off is
not in the market.Both were announced after the
close.John------------------ Reply Separator
--------------------Originally From: "Kent Rollins"
<kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Subject: Re: [RT] Thursday Prognosis of
S&PDate: 08/14/2002 11:57pm----- Original Message
-----From: "John Cappello" <jvc689@xxxxxxx>To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Cc:
<MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent: Wednesday, August 14, 2002 7:38
PMSubject: [RT] Thursday Prognosis of S&P>1. UAL
will announce Bankruptcy plansFactored into the market.>2.
Major CEOs of certain firms will not signFactored into the market to a
certain extent.>3. Companies will announce a need to redo back
yearsUnless IBM comes out and announces $10B in overstated earnings,
this isfactored in as well.>4. While we passed the early
Aug. high we are still below July highsGot to pass August before
getting to July.>5. The 200 day moving average is a long way
offGot to start somewhere.>6. 775.9 may have been the low
for this cycle but that does not mean880 will not be retested.Not
for a few months atleast.>We can move higher but I think we will
end lower. It would not takemuch to derail this uptrend which until now
has been fueled by weakvolume.Weak volume is okay. That
means everyone doubts it. That's why it willcontinue for a
while.Kent------------------------ Yahoo! Groups
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