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I agree with that circa 3/2003
----- Original Message -----
From: "topos8" <topos8@xxxxxxx>
To: <gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, August 14, 2002 12:39 PM
Subject: [gannsghost] Re: Abby Joseph Cohen
> Bruce:
>
> I am not a fortune teller so I can only offer an assesment of the
> current position of the market relative to resistance and the normal
> implications of that position.
>
> However, if the bonds to get up to 114 then I think we will be headed
> for 120 immediately since there is another vacuum between 112 and 119-
> 120 according to my calculations.
>
> Carl
>
> --- In gannsghost@xxxx, "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxx> wrote:
> > In 8/92 and 1/98, bonds approached and took out long standing
> double
> > all time tops. In both cases, the bonds consolidated in a 1-1.5pt
> > range for approx week right at the old highs in a wave 4 type
> fashion
> > before surging an extra 2 pts to put in an intermediate top.
> Another
> > observation is that in both cases, bonds corrected back to its
> > previous swing high over a few months. Problem is I have no idea
> > what that means here. Could mean we go back to 104 although I have
> a
> > hard time believing that. So based on history, we can trade here
> at
> > 112 for a week, then up to 114-116, then maybe back down to 104?
> > Everything tells me that bonds need to eventually get up to 118-119
> > before this is all over.
> >
> > What amazes me most here is that the structure tells me that we are
> > nowhere near the real high.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In gannsghost@xxxx, "topos8" <topos8@xxxx> wrote:
> > > Bruce:
> > >
> > > I've been dead wrong on the bonds for 5 months now; I can't
> > imagine
> > > why you would care about my views.
> > >
> > > However, here is the current picture based on my price-square
> time
> > > calculations.
> > >
> > > The long term resistance in the bonds at 106-24 that I cited in
> my
> > > July 24 post was taken out decisively in early August. There was
> no
> > > strong, long term resistance between that level and 112. Right
> now
> > > the market has accelerated up into very strong long term
> > resistance;
> > > I see several levels between 111-28 and 112-20 with the center of
> > > gravity being 112-08. (The fact that futures have rallied very
> > close
> > > to last November's top at 112-18 is coincidental.)
> > >
> > > Based on this I would expect at least a break of several weeks
> and
> > > atleast 7 points from here, and quite possibly the start of a
> move
> > > all the way back down to the lows of the trading range of the
> past
> > 9
> > > months (roughly 97-98). The key thing is to watch the closes,
> > > especially the weekly closes. If we are going to go down from
> here
> > > we will not see any weekly closes above 112-20 and probably no
> > daily
> > > closes above there either.
> > >
> > > Carl
> > >
> > >
> > > --- In gannsghost@xxxx, "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > What do you think of bonds here, Carl?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > --- In gannsghost@xxxx, topos8@xxxx wrote:
> > > > > Abby Joseph Cohen is paid to have a view on the stock and
> bond
> > > > markets and to
> > > > > put her forecasts and recommendations in writing. Her views
> > are
> > > > broadcast
> > > > > world wide and I have no doubt that many investors pay
> serious
> > > > attention to
> > > > > them. When she is right she gets the credit and when she is
> > wrong
> > > > she takes
> > > > > the blame.
> > > > >
> > > > > How has she performed over the past 11 years? I know for a
> > fact
> > > > that on
> > > > > January 1, 1991, just two weeks before the Gulf war began,
> she
> > > was
> > > > very
> > > > > bearish on stocks (the S&P was then at 315). She turned
> > bullish
> > > > when the
> > > > > average reached 350 and basically has remained bullish ever
> > since.
> > > > >
> > > > > This means that if you had blindly followed her investment
> > policy
> > > > over the
> > > > > past 14 years you would have earned a compounded annual
> return
> > of
> > > > 8.2%. I
> > > > > know many investors who have done much worse than this.
> > > > >
> > > > > How many people on this list have done as well over the past
> 11
> > > > years? It is
> > > > > easy to make fun of the fact that she has been bullish during
> > the
> > > > past 30
> > > > > months, but how many on this list turned bearish in 2000
> after
> > > > being bullish
> > > > > in 1999, 1998, 1997, ....?
> > > > >
> > > > > Abby Joseph Cohen makes no pretense of being a market timer.
> > > > Moreover, I
> > > > > know for a fact that many market timers have done very poorly
> > > over
> > > > the past
> > > > > 14 years.
> > > > >
> > > > > May I suggest that those who have done better than Ms. Cohen
> > over
> > > > the past 14
> > > > > years can feel free to take a shot at her record (although
> this
> > > > would be bad
> > > > > manners). As for everyone else, it might be wise to
> > concentrate
> > > > instead on
> > > > > getting up to her level of achievement.
> > > > >
> > > > > Carl
> > > > >
> > > > > Carl
>
>
>
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>
>
>
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>
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