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It will take more than charts and principals and theories to bring this
about Ira. It's going to take some fundamentals that are not seen as
yet. There is no where for money to go other than a tin can in the back
yard at this point so people are not going to continue to opt out of the
market for something better unless that better is just preservation of
capital and the mind set is so strong now that you have to ride out the
storms that I'm not sure the public can be flushed to any high percentage.
Fundamentally, I see no reason whatever for such a drop. The NAS was a
giant bubble which has now lost 80% of its air. The S&P was never even
remotely as over bought and has now retreated into the area of true value
based on common sense. 80% of our companies are meeting or beating their
greatly reduced earnings expectations.
I'm not saying you're wrong of course but I contest that there will be an
event or series of events required to bring it about and not just historic
numbers. Seeing you leaning so heavily in this direction gives me somewhat
of a boast toward believing a bottom is in. I have much respect for you
and if you're so sure of one direction without offering alternatives, well
Ira, you may just be my new contrary indicator. hehe
Anyway, 3000 up then 6000 down or just 3000 down all adds up to high
volatility for traders and good money to be made.
Good trading next week everyone,
Bob
At 08:26 AM 8/10/2002 -0700, you wrote:
>I am neither bullish or bearing most of the time. It is difficult to trade=
> properly if you have an opinion. Some times the simplest things are the b=
>est. A simple trend line or a tenet by some guru. In this case Gann and h=
>is famous AB=3DCD. Price in the Dow stopped here because it was supposed t=
>o if that rule has a basis in fact. Now comes the retracement. If this br=
>eaks south again there is a possible 3500 point move if AB=3DCD for the nex=
>t move. The funny thing is that right now there is the possibility for a 3=
>000 point move to the up side which wouldn't void this downward spiral. Al=
>l stocks won't go to zero even though many stocks which were $100 + stocks =
>a year or two ago are trading for pennies. So keep a clear head and don't =
>let bias warp your trading judgment. Ira.
>
>
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