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I agree with the symmetey pattern even though the author gives it low
probability for valid reasons given. This market is overcooked in one
direction in my opinion.
1.Nyse Advancers 886 and Decliners 2333 on Fri.
2.Nas Advancers 1001 and Decliners 2282 on Fri.
3.Momentum was -2.06% on Fri Vs - 1.08% on Thurs.
4.Most of the Economic news was lagging indicaters.
5. I noted the fact the PE of the S&P was out of line 18 months ago
and now the value pundits are making the scene. No pat on my back but
it is just too late in the scenario to bring out a given which can
turn around dramatically in our economy. The issue now is value vs.
low bond yields.
6. Downgrading by a major Institution of the max for the S&P by the
end of the year is 960...prior same source said 1050 and prior even
higher.
The sky is not falling and there are some strange conclusions being
drawn as to continued price erosion.
7. GE, what I view as one of the chief proxys for the S&P , was just
at a PEG of 1.2.Very close to real value.
Hey, I could be all wet. My systems are both flat and looking to go
long...they probably trailed out a bit too soon but no sweat.
John
------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
Originally From: "WhichWayGo" <WhichWayGo@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: [MedianLine] S-T symmetry pattern
Date: 08/04/2002 10:26am
S-T symmetry pattern
Posted By: WhichWayGo
Date: Sunday, 4 August 2002 at 1:23 p.m.
Here is a potential "chart pattern" unfolding on a 20-day time
scale, the market showing excellent "symmetry" with the rebound
pattern up from the recent "776" lows as compared to the decline
pattern going into that low. I do NOT give this scenario a high
probability of succeeding, given other TA factors, but the
pattern "is there", so I will show it.
You can see the basis of this "chart pattern" analysis is
a "potential" unfolding inverse head and shoulder formation, with
neckline and shoulder trendlines drawn in on the chart. The "chart
pattern" projection is to "SPX 1040". This also lines up exactly with
the elliott wave fibo analysis.
That is, the first a-b-c up (labeled "zz1" for zig zag-1 on the
chart, you can all it larger wave "A" if you wish) at 135 pts.,
assuming a completed a-b-c corrective wave ("X" or "B") to Friday's
low at 854. Now projecting a second zig zag, "zz2" or "C" which is
equal to 1.382X wave "zz1" or "A" targets exactly the same "SPX
1040".
In "corrective wave" patterns on many degree scales, the "C =
1.382X A" is very common. So the projections shown on the chart are
entirely within the scope of normal EW and fibo parameters, and are
reinforced by "standard chart pattern" analysis.
Of course, what is needed to "invalidate" this
pattern "possibility" is a clear move below Friday's low of 854.
While a "deeper" wave "X" or "B" correction is still entirely valid
under EW guidelines, a deeper correction would quickly destroy the
apparent "chart pattern symmetry" and render that scenario much less
likely as the S-T "pattern in effect".
If nothing else, this illustrates the need to be "pattern aware" of
the market, which sometimes can give us clues to its intentions with
apparent "symmetry". Also, watch on different time frames as well.
Sometimes we can get so engrossed in watching a five minute chart,
for example, when "something" may be developing on a 10 or 20 day
scale.
And this is a good example for those of us who like to "watch the
wave" counts, to also be aware of "standard chart patterns" and
formations that may develop to give us further clues to the market's
intentions.
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