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<span style='font-size:
12.0pt'>Today's price action invalidates the 896-902 price level as a
turning point for this current move. I am very busy tonight, and don't have
time to edit my market update to my own list. Instead I will just post it here
unedited for this group.
<span style='font-size:
12.0pt'>
<span style='font-size:
12.0pt'>
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:blue'>While I expected a powerful rally from the
775 low I still respected the strength of the previous down moves when making
my analysis, and defining likely turning point price levels and dates for those
turning points. These factors led me to my original forecast made on 7-24 of
896-902 to be reached by 7-29. The market did reach these levels by my forecast
time frame by closing at 898.96 on 7-29.
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:blue'>
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:blue'>We have not got the turn high that I had
expected to occur at this time and price. The market has now invalidated the
previous forecast, and has caused me to consider a price level that had
previously been considered by me to be a very low probability. Likewise the
market made another high for the move today yet did so near the close
therefore, not revealing if it has the power or not to proceed to the 958
level.
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:blue'>
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:blue'>The market is dynamic we must therefore,
reassess probabilities when conditions change in the market. I have two high
probability targets now that before had to be considered very low probability
targets.
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:blue'>
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:blue'>They are, first the 912-917 range this
corresponds to a .618 retracement of the move from 6-28 down to 7-24. We are
right now on the edge of this range with today's high of 911.64 (close
enough for me). From here we could easily open down tomorrow possibly down big
from this level or drift slightly higher into the range before turning lower
and completing the turn high.
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:blue'>
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:blue'>The second high probability target would be
the 954-958 range. This target corresponds to a 50% retracement of the move
from the high on 4-17 down to the low of 7-24. My cycle indicators are
screaming for a top to this current move, so for the market to reach this
higher target range it will need to do so quickly.
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:blue'>
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:blue'>In summary if the market doesn't open
down right away then we should expect it to drift higher into the 912-917 range
put in the high, and then begin to move lower. If we see the top of the 912-917
range broken and on strength then we should expect a quick move up to the
higher range of 954-958, with the final peak of this move to be made possibly
tomorrow, but more likely on Friday, and not later than Monday.
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:blue'>
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt;color:blue'>E
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>
<span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>-----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
[mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: <st1:date
Month="7" Day="30" Year="2002"><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>Tuesday, July 30, 2002<font
size=2 face=Tahoma> <st1:time
Hour="22" Minute="30"><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Tahoma'>10:30 PM<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>
To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators
Anomymous
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in;mso-layout-grid-align:none;
text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>While we did close right at the previously mentioned .382
Fibonacci retracement level of 902 the market made a new high for the move.
This new high of 909.69 really stretches the extreme of this point as a valid
turning point level.
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in;mso-layout-grid-align:none;
text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in;mso-layout-grid-align:none;
text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>If the market does not turn lower from here my next target
range for the termination of this move will be 954-958. This corresponds to a
Fibonacci 50% retracement of the move from 4-17 down to 7-24.
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in;mso-layout-grid-align:none;
text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-left:.5in;mso-layout-grid-align:none;
text-autospace:none'><span style='font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Arial'>E
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>
<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>-----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: <st1:date
Month="7" Day="29" Year="2002"><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>Monday, July 29, 2002<font
size=2 face=Tahoma> <st1:time
Hour="21" Minute="14"><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Tahoma'>9:14 PM<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>
To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators
Anomymous
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<font
size=3 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:black'>The market blew through the 861 level and never looked
back. <span style='font-family:
Arial;color:black'>While Thursday's price action forced me to consider the
862-869 price level, Wednesday's forecast has so far proven to have been more
correct
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>"My next targets for the end of this brief rally are:
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>First target 896-902 level which corresponds to a .382
retracement of the move down from the 5-17 high to today's low which works out
to be 902. If this target range is reached it will likely be done by Friday or
Monday."
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>
<font
size=3 color=black face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:black'>Today's close of 898.96 puts the market right in the middle
of this range. IMHO the odds a very high that this Fibonacci retracement level will
mark the peak of this brief rally.
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>
<font size=3 color=black
face="Times New Roman">E
<font size=2 color=black
face=Tahoma>-----Original
Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
[mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: <st1:date
Month="7" Day="28" Year="2002"><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:black'>Sunday, July 28, 2002<font
size=2 color=black face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;
color:black'> <font size=2
color=black face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;
color:black'>8:17 PM<font size=2 color=black
face=Tahoma>
To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators
Anomymous
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<font size=3 color=blue
face="Times New Roman">The critical
level for Monday is 861<span style='mso-bidi-font-family:
Arial;color:black'> (A .382 retracement of the move from the 6-28 high to the
7-24 low). This is a
highly charged point in the current price structure. If the market moves
through this level tomorrow on strength, then it's clear sailing to at least
the 889 level (not necessarily tomorrow but within a couple of days). However,
if the market reaches 861 tomorrow, and is unable to punch through this level
we could see the beginning of a steep and rapid decline.
<font
size=2 color="#333300" face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt'>
<font
size=2 color="#333300" face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt'>
<font size=2 color=black
face=Tahoma>-----Original
Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie [mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: <st1:date
Month="7" Day="25" Year="2002"><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:black'>Thursday, July 25,
2002<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:black'> <st1:time
Hour="21" Minute="32"><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:black'>9:32 PM<font
size=2 color=black face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;
color:black'>
To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators
Anomymous
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<font size=2 color=black
face=Arial>I
am concerned by the S&P's failure to close today above yesterdays high. I
was expecting a brief but powerful short term rally from the 780 level. It
started out that way yesterday, but today's lack of follow thru is causing me
to assess a lower target level for tomorrow which could terminate this move.
<font size=2 color=black
face=Arial>A
.618 retracement of the move from the 7-17 high to the 7-24 low would yield
869.
<font size=2 color=black
face=Arial>A
.382 retracement of the move from the 6-28 high to the 7-24 low would yield
862.
<font size=2 color=black
face=Arial>If
the market stalls in this range tomorrow 862-869 it could be the end to this brief
attempt at a rally. Ironically the market has a better chance of moving through
and exceeding this range if it fails to go that high tomorrow, and closes in
the upper third of it's trading range. Likewise if the market can penetrate and
close above this level then my previously posted higher target levels are
almost certain to be reached.
<font size=2 color=black
face=Arial>E
<font
size=2 color=purple face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt'>
<font
size=2 color=purple face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt'>
<font size=2 color=black
face=Tahoma>-----Original
Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
[mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: <st1:date
Month="7" Day="24" Year="2002"><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:black'>Wednesday, July 24,
2002<span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:black'> <st1:time
Hour="21" Minute="37"><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:black'>9:37 PM<font
size=2 color=black face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;
color:black'>
To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators
Anomymous
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>It appears that the 780 Fib. Level has held, and sparked the
beginning of a powerful, but likely short lived short covering rally. <span
class=EmailStyle30><span style='mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>The market made it's low at 775.75 just 4.25 points below
the 780 level and it was only below the 780 level for about 8 minutes.
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>My next targets for the end of this brief rally are:
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>First target 896-902 level which corresponds to a .382
retracement of the move down from the 5-17 high to today's low which works out
to be 902. If this target range is reached it will likely be done by Friday or
Monday.
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>My next and equally as likely to occur target is 889 if the
market fails to reach the previous targets by Monday then this becomes the most
likely target. I would look for this target to be hit on 7-31 or 8-1. This
price level corresponds to a 50% retracement of the move from the 6-28 high
down to today's low.
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>
<font
size=3 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:12.0pt;mso-ansi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>E
<font
size=2 color=blue face=Arial><span style='font-size:10.0pt;mso-bidi-font-size:
12.0pt;color:blue'>
<font size=3 color=blue
face="Times New Roman"><span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> <font size=2
color=black face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;
color:black'>-----Original Message-----
From: Hill, Ernie
[mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: <st1:date
Month="7" Day="23" Year="2002"><span
style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;color:black'>Tuesday, July 23, 2002<font
size=2 color=black face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;
color:black'> <font size=2
color=black face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma;
color:black'>9:42 PM<font size=2 color=black
face=Tahoma>
To: 'realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx'
Subject: RE: [RT] Prognosticators
Anomymous
<span
style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial>So far
the market is holding up, that is to say it is not crashing. Right now the
market stands at the edge of the cliff right at the crossroads of a brief but
possibly strong rally, and slipping into panic selling crash mode.<font
face=Arial>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial> <font
face=Arial>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial>Tomorrow's
key levels are 791.55 and 780.<span
style='font-family:Arial'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial> <font
face=Arial>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial>791.55
represents a 1.618 Fibonacci extension of the move from the 5-17 high to the
6-14 low as measured from the 7-8 high. I have previously posted the Fibonacci
relationships associated with the 780 level.<span
style='font-family:Arial'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial> <font
face=Arial>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial>The
market could find support at either one of these two levels which could spark a
brief two to five day rally. If this rally does take place it will likely be
only an interruption to the current powerful down trend. If the 780 level fails
to hold support tomorrow there could be full scale panic selling.<font
face=Arial>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial> <font
face=Arial>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial>I do
not think that will be the case. First off my timing model is calling for a
short term bottom to be made tomorrow +or - 4 trading days. Secondly the 780 level
appears to be a very strong support level, and finally it looks like we are
completing a short term corrective pattern on the hourly chart that often
precedes reversals.<span style='font-family:
Arial'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial> <font
face=Arial>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial>E<span
style='mso-spacerun:yes'> <span
style='font-family:Arial'>
<font size=3 color=black
face=Arial>
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