[RT] Presidential Cycle Data Update by Bob Nichols

["Rhonda Guilbeaux" <guilbear@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE UPDATE
The DJIA declined sharply lower early last week and the index closed on 
Tuesday at 7,702. 
The current decline is one of the top 5 declines from a Year 1 closing high 
to a Year 2 closing low in the past 100+ years of Presidential Cycles.
 The following are the top 5 declines in the past 100+year of 
Presidential Cycles and the advances in the following 2+ years after the DJIA 
made a losing low in Year 2.
The Top 5 largest declines from a Year 1 High to Year 2 closing 
low
(1929-1930) - 58.68%
(1937-1938) - 49.10%
(1973-1974) - 45.08%
(1969-1970) - 34.85%
(2001-July 23, 2002) -32.17%
Average Decline (1897-2000): -21.65%
Average Decline (1929-2000): -22.87%
DJIA Advance/Decline from Year 2 Low to Year 4 high after Top 5 largest 
declines
(1930-1932) - -43.64% (Only time in 100+ years of Presidential Cycle there 
was a decline)
(1938-1940) - +54.42%
(1974-1976) - +75.69%
(1970-1972) - +64.18%
(2002-2004) - Time will tell
Average Advance (1897-2000): +52.41%
Average Advance (1929-2000): +55.70%






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