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Charles,
Some more great information for readers. It nice to see the research
Extending back so far. There is so little to work with in the 1900's
That is equivalent to what we are experiencing. Ned Davis is always a
Good source of practical information.
Adrian
> -----Original Message-----
> From: charles meyer [mailto:chmeyer@xxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Sunday, 28 July 2002 7:35 AM
> To: REAL TRADERS
> Subject: [RT] GEN: BEAR MARKETS: A HISTORICAL PERSEPCTIVE....
>
>
> Group-
>
> Some long bear market time periods from the past include:
>
> 1835 to 1842 = 7 years
> 1890 to 1896 = 6 years
> 1909 to 1914 = 5 years
> 1937 to 1942 = 5 years
>
> Sometime between now; or the end of this year; based on what
> history teaches us; is that we should have a rise into the
> year 2003. This according to Ned Davis research. He points
> out that every four years, from the low in the 2nd year of
> every Administration since 1914, the market has staged an
> impressive rally to its high the following year, with even
> the stodgy old Dow averaging a 50% gain in the rally. Going
> back to 1934; the shortest percentage gain rally was from
> 10/09/1946 to 02/08/1947; during which time the S&P gained
> only 14.7%. This happened to also be the shortest time span;
> which lasted roughly five (5) months. The largest gain was
> from 01/11/1954 to 11/14/1955; during which time the S&P
> gained 87.1%. The time span was roughly twenty two (22)
> months. The average time period encompassing the seventeen
> rallies since 1934 was about sixteen (16) months.
>
> Interestingly; the four time periods encompassing each of the
> long term bear markets; cited above; also saw a major rise
> which lasted many months and retraced 50% or more of the
> prior bear market decline.
>
> Bottom line here is that according to history; we should see
> a rally lasting into 2003; then another painful leg down.
> Just where and when the final lows will be recorded is
> another discussion.
>
> Having said that; it was the late Edson Gould who observed
> that the bear markets which followed the great bull markets
> lasted rougly at least one-third as long in time. Assuming
> that the last bull market had its beginnings in 1982 and
> ended in 2000; we can easily calculate that the final lows;
> time wise; will not be recorded until sometime in 2006. The
> future of course isn't written in stone but this is simply
> the evidence recorded by the history of bear markets.
>
> chas
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