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Dear Charles,
Here is a pdf file of
extensive research done
by Bob Nichols about
the Presidential Cycle
as related to the DOW.
I obtained permission to
post it.
This is in agreement with the
research you posted. Hard to
ignore the market history of this
study and the
research you posted.
I am on the alert!
Best,
Rhonda
<BLOCKQUOTE
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
charles meyer
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>REAL TRADERS
Sent: Saturday, July 27, 2002 4:34
PM
Subject: [RT] GEN: BEAR MARKETS: A
HISTORICAL PERSEPCTIVE....
Group-Some long bear market time periods from the
past include:1835 to 1842 = 7 years1890 to 1896
= 6 years1909 to 1914 = 5 years1937 to 1942
= 5 yearsSometime between now; or the end of this year; based on
what historyteaches us; is that we should have a rise into the year
2003. Thisaccordingto Ned Davis research. He points out
that every four years, from the low inthe 2nd year of every Administration
since 1914, the market has staged animpressive rally to its high the
following year, with even the stodgy oldDowaveraging a 50% gain in the
rally. Going back to 1934; the shortestpercentage gain rally was
from 10/09/1946 to 02/08/1947; during which timethe S&P gained only
14.7%. This happened to also be the shortest time span;which lasted
roughly five (5) months. The largest gain was from 01/11/1954to
11/14/1955; during which time the S&P gained 87.1%. The time span
wasroughly twenty two (22) months. The average time period
encompassing theseventeen rallies since 1934 was about sixteen (16)
months.Interestingly; the four time periods encompassing each of the
long term bearmarkets; cited above; also saw a major rise which lasted
many months andretraced 50% or more of the prior bear market
decline.Bottom line here is that according to history; we should see a
rally lastinginto2003; then another painful leg down. Just where
and when the final lowswillbe recorded is another
discussion.Having said that; it was the late Edson Gould who observed
that the bearmarkets which followed the great bull markets lasted rougly
at leastone-third as long in time. Assuming that the last bull
market had itsbeginnings in 1982 and ended in 2000; we can easily
calculate that the finallows; time wise; will not be recorded until
sometime in 2006. The future ofcourse isn't written in stone but
this is simply the evidence recorded bythe history of bear
markets.chasTo
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Attachment:
Description: "PrezCycleUpdate.pdf"
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