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Isn't the hypothesis that they work and it is up to someone to prove that
they do BEFORE we just assume that they do and then challenge people to
prove that they don't? If I came up with a random system, would I have to
prove that it works or could I just throw it out there, tell people it
works, and then scoff at people because they can't prove that it doesn't?
Kent
----- Original Message -----
From: "John Cappello" <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Cc: <MedianLine@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, July 23, 2002 1:57 PM
Subject: [RT] Low Cost Day Trading Method/System
I overslept today and missed my favorite first hour of trading. I
took out 13 S&P points in 2 hours and will call it a day. All trades
were based on oversold or overbought signs on 3 time frames. As a
fact, all logic aside, the daily S&P is considerably oversold.
Still working to further simplify on just hourly bar and coming
closer.
Mechanical systems are still looking for a long.
As another aside, I belive what I was taught regarding proving a
thesis or hypothesis. One can not disprove a negative hypothesis. One
must prove or disprove a positive hypothesis.
In other words, Fibs, EW, Pitchforks, S&R etc do work is the
hypothesis. One must then prove that they do not.I doubt that proving
they do not work is truly possible especially if you can find people
using them effectively.
John
------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
Originally From: John Cappello <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] Low Cost Day Trading Method/System
Date: 07/22/2002 04:11pm
Using the method previously discussed , picked up a quick 10.5 S&P
points early on. Figured I would take a break, do some chores and
take a nap.
When I woke up I saw a lot of good trades that I missed but the
market will still be here tomorrow.
The new simpler 60 min bar and breadth correlation method is still
being refined. It looked like it would have scored with an 830 short
but I will make sure it is consistent as what I am currently doing.
My mechanical systems are flat and looking to go long. I admire the
systems that did not have a trailing stop and kept them short.
I committed some fresh funds to five mutual funds that in their 25 to
35 year histories never ended the year with substantial losses nor
had more than 3 so so years in their history. Of course past
performance is not indicative of the future.
Onward and upward,
John
------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
Originally From: John Cappello <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] Low Cost Day Trading Method/System
Date: 07/17/2002 05:57pm
This method/system is not fancy or high tech and should still be
considered experimental given its short track record.
Picked up 7 e-mini points today. First trade was triggerred by the
overextension in price on all 3 time frames used and made a good
short. The second had concurrence on its side but breadth changed and
caused an early exit. That too was a short.
I am enjoying the fib debate not so much from whether one side is
right or wrong, but from the various characterizations the
participants are giving each other...carry on.I am learning a lot
more than just about the fib...but also people. My two cents is that
whether one chooses to call them "whatever" retracements, "whatever
does appear to exist.
Sincerely,
John
------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
Originally From: John Cappello <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
Subject: [RT] Low Cost Day Trading Method/System
Date: 07/16/2002 04:56pm
While I am still trading almost always in the market mechanical S&P
and Nas system, I also wanted to develop a low to no cost day trading
system.
1. You can use Lycos to get free Nas and S&P live charts. For $9.95
per month you can a lot more.I like being frugal.
2. The Lycos has built in indicaters and my favorite is the moving
average volume.
3. I trade off of 1 min. , 10 min. and 60 min. bars looking for
concurrence and I started with a $10,000 test account.I also know my
own S&R's as a backdrop and posted these calculations this week.
4. I also check for breadth [Advancers vs Decliners]and the simpest
way for me is to just go to the Oddball site hourly and see that
status.If red, decliners beat advancers. If green vice versa. I
disregard the Oddball numbers.
5. I trade with no stops because I like my entries and am not adverse
to averaging up or down one time as long as I do not take 2
overnight.I have taken as low as a 1 point profit and as high as a 20
point profit. Most fall in between and are assesed on my tolerance
which is a personal thing.
Over the last 2 weeks I am up 50 e-mini points and have not taken any
losses that were not reversed out the next day.I know that is not a
track record but it is a start. It is just retirement fun. Sometimes
Lycos is down and when that happens I take the day off rather than
fight Lycos.I may just be lucky so far.
Frankly, Hurst-Fourier, Pitchforks, Fibs, Ben's proprietary
indicater, Astrology and other things posted here have been helpful
to me from a perspective standpoint.There seems to be a little bit of
luck or "feel" in all of these too.
Once again, this may all be luck but so much of what I see posted is
the result of conjecture or educated guesses, I thought it was time
to share this.
No doubt this can be modified or bettered by the geniuses on this
list, but so far this simple little "system" has been fun for me. I
trade until about 1:30PM and then go smoke a good cigar [I do not
inhale,I just like the taste]and have a long swim... Hans Selye's
answer to stress.
Sincerely,
John
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