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Strange.
Yesterday I had changed my program that I
use to look a ratios
of legs in the market to calculate the
ratio of the last leg being
analyzed at any time to the leg before that
and calculate the ratio
of the "leg before that" to the "leg before
that".
In other words the ratio bc/ab
and cd/bc
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
d
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2> b /
/\
/
/ \ /
/ \/
a c
The attached chart shows the
results.
Although we can say that generally the
lower the AB/BC
ratio is the higher is the CD/BC
ratio.
It appears that the dispersion is too great
for there to
be any statistical significance to this
relationship.
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - -Clyde Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email:
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Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092Details
at:
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>www.theswingmachine.com- - - - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
----- Original Message -----
From: "Adrian Pitt" <<A
href="mailto:apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";><FONT face=Arial
size=2>apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";><FONT face=Arial
size=2>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx<FONT face=Arial
size=2>>
Sent: Thursday, July 18, 2002 3:52 AM
Subject: [RT] FIBONACCI - A Spanner in the
Works
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>> > For quite sometime now I have observed the back and forth
discussion on> whether the markets obeyed Fibonacci ratio's or not, were
they able to> be used to make money off, can research be done to find out
if past> swings stopped on Fibo numbers. Well I'm here to start a
new line of> thinking and throw a complete spanner in the works of
everything that> has been discussed so far.> > It has
amazed me that in all these discussions no one has even mentioned> what I
am going to say. I am a firm believer in the notion that each>
swing in the market is related mathematically by a very limited number>
set (read any of Bryce Gilmore's books) but anyone who truly believe>
that every swing will relate to the last swing or the last set of 3>
swings by a Fibonacci number is living in fantasy land. Yes, many
times> a market will stop cold right on one of the key contraction or
expansion> ratio's but all this completely misses the real point.>
> Here it is. It is NOT the fact that markets stop on fibo numbers
that> is so important, by FAR AND AWAY of more importance is the fact
THEY> DON'T!! Now that may seem a totally ludicrous
statement. But I'm> talking from real experience here of 20 years
application, so give my> words some thought before rushing out to give
negative comments unless> you TRULY know what your talking about.
> > The real power of Fibo numbers in combination with Elliott
wave is as> follows. We all know Elliott provides a road map of the
market. If you> have the correct road map you have a very powerful
key. But even having> the correct road map won't solve all your
problems. There will still be> many roads a market may take without
negating the road map you have.> This is where fibo ratio's come
in. > > The power of Fibo numbers occurs when markets
turn either side of> particular contraction or expansion
ratio's. There power is NOT when> they stop cold on the 61.8%
level..or that can still be extremely> useful. Now you might ask
how on earth can it be useful to know that> market reversed anywhere
between say 1-62% of a previous move? A good> question.
There's an awful lot of points in between. The power is the> mere
fact a market has failed to exceed that retracement point. THAT IS>
THE KEY!!!! > > Wouldn't you like to know whether a move was
going to be big? Small? Was> going to continue creating another set of
wave counts in the same> direction? Well often time the limited
rules of Elliott can't help you,> but in unison with the guidelines laid
down by GLEN NEELY in his> monumental work, the use of Fibo ratios add an
EXTREMELY POWERFUL tool> to the analysis. It can enable you to
eliminate a whole swag of wave> counts that no one else can.
> > So Clyde and others, if you truly want to discover the power
of> Fibonacci, redo your analysis on past historic swings, but this time
see> what can be learned by the correlation between the size of
retracements> and its future implications to the next few swings. You
will learn a lot> more about market behaviour than trying to carry out an
ultimately> pointless exercise to show if past swings stop on Fibo
ratio's. > > Regards,> Adrian Pitt> >
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