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I don't use Fibs, but it has occurred to me that no one has asked the
right question yet. The issue, at least for me, is not whether Fibs
predict anything, but whether Fibs provide a basis for confidence in
making a trading decision. In other words, if 'reversals' at Fibs more
often than not provide the basis of a tradable move, that makes them
useful. I don't believe Clyde's work has tested that -- please correct
me if I am wrong. My point would be that the ability of Fibs to predict
the turn ahead of time may not per se be relevant, although it would be
great if it could do that too. That also means that the fact that
reversals often occur at non-Fib levels would also irrelevant.
Just a thought
DanG
Clyde Lee wrote:
>
> What I believe in and what I publish may be two entirely
> different things. You have never seen a published study
> by me that indicated that Gann Angle projection of time
> or price reversal points had any more significance than
> a random choice of points.
>
> My publication of Gann Angle points was just an observation
> and not an analysis.
>
> Why it is that you insist on selecting A VERY FEW examples
> of FIB relationships that seem to work a proof that such is the
> case I do not understand.
>
> I understand that many people use FIB relationships in
> discretionary trading as a guide to where price reversals might
> occur but I have yet to see anyone publish a trading system
> based on the FIB ratios that was successful. And, in view
> of the statistical data which has been accumulated it is highly
> unlikely that it will.
>
> My whole purpose of this insistence of looking at the statistics
> of Fib ratios is to try to prevent some of our newer and less
> experienced colleagues from jumping off onto a train that is
> headed for hell.
>
> Clyde
>
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
> SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
> Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
> Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, July 16, 2002 6:48 AM
> Subject: [RT] Why Fibonacci Numbers work and Number crunching doesn't
>
> >
> > Clyde and all those interested,
> >
> > Have a look at the enclosed graph. It shows very clearly a perfect
> > example Of the implementation of Fibonacci ratio's at work, and why
> > Clyde's number crunching statistical tour de force shows up nothing.
> > This graph is a daily Bar chart of the Dow, looking at the major high
> > and the corrective rally we have had this year. Notice that the
> > corrective rally finished in a classic Neely Triangle, as so many
> > multi-wave corrective structures do. Also notice That at that exact
> > moment we completed the 'e' wave of the triangle was also the EXACT
> > 61.8% retracement of the major decline so far. Also note, that with
> > almost Any swing methodology applied to this market would never have
> > caught this. If You go to a weekly or monthly chart that termination
> > point vanishes and so does The 61.8% retracement, thereby seemingly
> > proving Clyde's assertion. Clyde, You do some great work, but it seems
> > there are 2 anomalies here..the first is You seem to believe in Gann
> > angles but not Fibonacci? That's is an unusual Combination to the say
> > the least. Secondly, don't let yourself fall into the camp University
> > academics have for the past decades of trying to prove markets were
> > Random and technical analysis had no validity by conducting spurious and
> > erroneous Test. Doing a number crunching test...no matter how detailed
> > and intensive does NOT Prove something doesn't work simply because your
> > test didn't show it.
> > This is why I sent this simple little graph. The combination of Elliott
> > and Fibo working a treat. These aren't isolated examples, and there is
> > no one on the
> > planet who could ever suggest we stopped at that point because "everyone
> > looks at charts..so they were watching the 61.8% level".
> >
> > Adrian Pitt
> >
> >
> > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
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>
>
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