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----- Original Message -----
From: <jeff@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, July 12, 2002 9:47 AM
Subject: Walker Market Letter 07/12/02
>
> ...............................................
>
> W a l k e r M a r k e t L e t t e r
>
> July 12th, 2002
>
> http://www.LowRisk.com
>
>
> ...............................................
>
>
> First off, my apologies for the length of time that has
> passed since our last issue way back on May 31st. Since we
> started publishing seven years ago, we have been pretty
> good at publishing two issues per month, but we had a lot
> of extraordinary things going on since early June.
>
> I received notes from many of you asking if we ceased
> publishing...never fear, despite all the dot com failures,
> LowRisk.com has have never been in better shape. We are
> going to be publishing this newsletter (for free!) for a
> very long time to come.
>
> Our Signal Strength is still at 8. We are primarily out of
> the market, as we have been for a very long time.
>
> I have enclosed a market rant below.
>
>
>
> // -- MODEL UPDATE -- //
>
> Lowrisk Market Allocation Model signal strength = 8 (on a scale
> of 0-20, with 20 being the most bullish)
>
> **********
>
> Disaster Avoidance Strategy - 100% stocks as of 12/06/00
> Graduated Strategy - 25% stocks, 75% money markets as of 10/19/2001
> Timing Strategy - 100% money markets as of 06/11/2001
> SuperBear Strategy - 100% money markets as of 12/14/98
>
> **********
>
>
> OK, is everybody now clear that we are in a bear market?
>
> On Wednesday the market hit some new closing lows for this
> bear market. The market has not been down at these levels
> on the SP500 or the Nasdaq since 1997.
>
> That's right, all those huge gains in 1998, 1999, and
> early 2000 have been completely wiped out.
>
> Yes...make no mistake, we are in a historic bear market.
> The SP500 has lost 42% of its value since early 2000, and
> the Nasdaq continues to flirt with a 1929 style crash.
>
> In fact, and this is *TRULY* amazing, those comparison
> charts between the current Nasdaq bear market and the 1929
> crash that I have been publishing are actually starting to
> look reassuring!
>
> After all, in the 1929 Crash the market found a bottom
> after a little over 700 trading days. Here we are, 585
> days into the current bear market...and 700 days isn't
> sounding all that bad anymore. Hopefully this bear market
> doesn't go longer than 1929 did.
>
> When I started publishing those crash comparison charts a
> couple of years ago, I did it as a warning of what *COULD*
> happen. And here we are two years later and we have just
> watched it happen all over again.
>
> By the way, those charts are newly updated, you can see
> them at: http://lowrisk.com/nasdaq-1929.htm
>
> And if you haven't looked at them yet, do yourself a favor,
> they truly are startling.
>
> This "instant replay" we have seen of the 1929 Crash just
> reinforces the fact that the market is truly driven by human
> nature, and that human nature does not change. That is why
> we have seen speculative bubbles followed by crashes over
> the centuries, and it is why we will continue to see them as
> long as humans have emotions. And that is probably the best
> argument against "buy and hold".
>
> The old saying is that the two emotions that drive the
> market are fear and greed. The amazing thing right now is
> that there is more greed than fear in the current market. In
> fact, the only panic we have seen in the market in recent
> months is a panic to buy stocks the moment there is a hint
> of a bottom. There are an awful lot of people out there who
> are really scared that they will miss "the bottom".
>
> For example, I recently received an email taking me to task
> because our model missed the rally "early in the year". I
> must admit that I am a bit befuddled by this. I am not sure
> which "rally" we missed...was it the three day rally in
> January when the SP500 gained 5%, or was it the nine day
> rally in early March when the SP500 gained 9%????
>
> The point is, we are in a bear market. The SP500 has lost
> 19.2% this year. This is not a bull market...the rules have
> changed. This is not the time to try and squeeze every last
> percent of profit out of the bear market rallies. This is
> the time to preserve your capital for the coming bull
> market. The very apt cliche is that this is the time to
> "keep your powder dry".
>
> We will eventually get another bull market, but bear markets
> are full of false bottoms. Be careful.
>
> WOW, this is getting long. Here is the bottom line...we are
> going to get a very powerful rally soon. Don't be fooled and
> don't get yourself in a panic to buy back into the market.
> Even if we were to see *THE* bottom soon, there will be time
> to get onboard the new bull market. The market will *NOT* go
> straight up.
>
> I know that a lot of you still have some (or all) of your
> money in the stock market. That pains me, because when I
> started publishing this newsletter in 1996, it was for the
> express purpose of trying to help people avoid a major
> crash. But here we are two years into a major crash, and I
> know that a large percentage of my readers did in fact get
> burned.
>
> I know that because most of you get the free version of
> this newsletter, and let's face it, most people are not
> willing to really commit their investments based on a free
> newsletter. That is one reason I really push to get people
> to upgrade to our Walker MarketEdge. I know that when
> people make even the modest investment of $99 a year, they
> will pay a lot more attention to the newsletter and will
> follow it more closely. Of course, they also get a lot for
> their money, including more timely issues (for instance,
> since our last issue of this free newsletter, we have
> published three issues of the Walker MarketEdge). But the
> real driver is the bottom line on *your* investments.
>
> Now let's be honest...if you upgrade to a paid
> subscription it will help our sales numbers, and I don't
> mind that one bit. But I started publishing because I had
> a passion to show investors a safer, more consistent
> approach to investing... and that is what we have done.
> Both our models and our mutual fund picks have
> outperformed the market, and they have done it with
> greatly reduced risk. But you simply won't get those
> benefits unless you upgrade your subscription.
>
> OK, enough of the lecture! If you are interested in
> upgrading your subscription, you can do it in just a few
> minutes on our secure web site:
>
> > > > https://www.lowrisk.com/wme-secure.htm < < <
>
>
> And in the meantime, don't get sucked in by a bear market
> rally. Remember, the market rallied for three months last
> fall, but those higher prices are just a distant memory
> now.
>
>
> Good luck,
> Jeff Walker
>
>
> Copyright (c) 2002 by Jeff Walker, Bayfield, CO. This
> newsletter may be forwarded, as long as you do so in its
> entirety.
>
> Disclaimer:
> The financial markets are risky. Investing is risky. Past
> performance does not guarantee future performance. The
> foregoing has been prepared solely for informational
> purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or
> sell any security. Opinions are based on historical
> research and data believed reliable, but there is no
> guarantee that future results will be profitable.
>
>
> ===========================
> To SUBSCRIBE: send mailto:wml-sub@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx. Or stop by
> http://www.lowrisk.com/wml-sub.htm
>
>
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