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Re: [RT] 10 Year Stock Market Perspective



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xinos@xxxxxxx wrote:
> 
> Dan,
>        Been reading your comments for quite a while.  You are one of
> the few who seem to use simple common sense re: the market.

If that is a compliment, then I humbly thank you...

>        I've been a Magee/Edwards fan since the late 1960's, and a

One heavy book, weight-wise, but worth the read.

> 'serious' stock investor for the past five years.  During the last
> five years, I have bought jillions of books, and dozens of software
> programs.  I experimented with Options and Stocks only.  Currently,
> the software programs I use are AIQ and Advanced Get.  I lean more
> heavily on AIQ.
>        My holding period tendencies lean probably more toward
> intermediate (two to six months) time-wise.

Looks like you are investing rather than trading. Two different kettles
of fish. (Where does that 'kettle of fish' phrase come from anyway?!)

Until recently, I never was able to trade options successfully. Now that
options are fully electronic, I find I can trade them, except close to
expiry, when my judgment goes haywire. This week, I will close out July
expirys ASAP , and all new positions will be in Augs.

>        Risk-wise, I'm not afraid to 'let it all hang out!"
>        I know this is a very private and personal industry.  I also
> know that noone in his right mind would reveal to strangers what he
> worked very hard to achieve with his own methods of investing.  That
> is the reality of investing.

I am glad you said this. I would never reveal exactly how I trade here,
if only because I don't wish to be fodder for those who think knocking
the contributions of others is the same as contributing themselves. I am
happy to discuss trading 'from a distance'.

>        However, since you apparently make so much sense to my own way
> of thinking, perhaps you can advise me as to your favorite:
>              + Software

I use Real Tick for data. I look at about 35 stocks in detail each
morning. I like looking at all graphs, from ST intraday to weekly, on
one screen; it is hard to get too enthusiastic about a ST buying
opportunity when the longer term charts are clearly negative. Helps keep
things in perspective. Also, the longer charts are sources for targets
for shorter term trades.

>              + Books you like/own.

Frankly I have learned a lot more about trading from this list,
including from some ex-contributors that were forced off for no better
reason than, apparently, a preference of some participants on this list
to censor people rather than use the delete key, than I ever learned
from any book. The books that everyone should read are:

Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (Mackay 1841)
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (Lefevre 1923)
Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits (Fisher 1958)

If you want something more contemporary, try ChangeWave Investing 2.0
(Smith 2001)

>              + Publications you read daily/weekly.

I am in Europe, so I buy the FT two or three days a week, mainly for the
competition crossword. I subscribe to the WSJOnline, and read Barrons
every week. (Not because Barrons is always right, but in a world where
CNBC 'complains' they can't run negative stories because they get hate
mail, Barron's has no fear of being laughed at, or threatened.) I use
briefing.com to keep up on what's moving the market.

>              + Any other research/methods you would like to share.

In trading, it isn't how you play the game, it's whether you win or
lose.

If you can't sleep at night because you're nervous, your positions are
too risky. If you can't sleep at night because you're anxious, you're
probably over-trading. Trade to win, but trade to sleep.

I think part of the secret is to find a technique that suits you, and
then become an expert in it. Everything else is money management.

Regards
DanG

>        Please accept my thanks for any info you can transfer to me.  I
> can also understand if you're not willing to share any of the above.
> It's ok.  I can accept any reluctance.
> 
>                    Dan Nicholas; San Diego, Ca.
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