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--- In gannsghost@xxxx, "topos8" <topos8@xxxx> wrote:
Last September's lows in the S&P and the Nasdaq 100 were both taken
out during the past month so the price-time calculations which I
thought had identified those lows as bear market lows didn't work out.
Where is long term support now for the stock averages? My
caculations show 894 in the S&P futures, 970 in the Nasdaq 100 and
8650 in the Dow.
Today the S&P futures got within 6 points of their ideal level, the
Dow hit its support and the Nasdaq 100 support again held back a
third attempt to break through.
This makes me think that the bear market low is very near in price,
even if it did not occur today. The next significant rally should be
the first leg of a new bull market which is likely to last about 2
years and carry the Dow and S&P up 40 -60 % from their bear market
lows.
My calculations also show that the rally from the March lows in the
bonds is over or nearly over. I show two, very strong resistance
levels there, one at 105-20 and the second at 106-10. In the 10 year
notes the corresponding resistance is at 110. Overall the picture
here supports the possiblity of one more rally (coincident with an
S&P break to 894?) and then a very big drop which should carry these
markets below their March lows.
Carl
--- End forwarded message ---
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