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Re: [RT] Re: forecasting-track record



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Adrian:
 
The picture is not so black and white.  Neely has 
attempted to make EW more rigid by adding rules to each pattern.  In doing 
so, some argue that he has left EW and that NeoWave is a different animal.  
Neely's rules lock things into "concrete," which is its main problem.  
Markets are not locked but reflect changing opinions.  Miner's approach is 
based on Elliott where X waves, 4 overlapping 1, etc. did not exist.  In 
between there is the "traditional" a la Prechter.  I don't think any can be 
discarded in the 
              of 
evidence that it is inferior to the others.  As with most TA, it comes down 
to a matter of personal choice, reflecting how one incorporates the analysis 
into a trading "system" and its affect on signal quality.
 
Bill
 
----- Original Message ----- 
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From: 
  Adrian Pitt 
  
  To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  
  Sent: Thursday, July 11, 2002 5:18 
  AM
  Subject: RE: [RT] Re: forecasting-track 
  record
  Earl,Miners work is good, but his EW is fairly 
  simplistic, but he doesput it into a form that can be used by 
  traders.  If anyone truly wantsto understand markets better and apply 
  Elliott Wave in a far more accurate and scientific way there is ONLY ONE 
  SOURCE of goodinformation.and that's Glen Neely's book.  I 
  STRONGLY WARN readers though not tobotherWith it unless EWT really 
  takes your interest.  It's a big book andEVERY PAGEhas critical 
  information on it, so lots of learning and practicing. Butitworks, 
  impeccably.  Its not a book about trading though, only 
  accuratewavereading.  Adrian> -----Original 
  Message-----> From: Earl Adamy [mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx] > 
  Sent: Thursday, 11 July 2002 1:46 AM> To: <A 
  href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> 
  Subject: Re: [RT] Re: forecasting-track record> > > I 
  think you make two valid points: know how to do the counts > yourself 
  and be able to control/apply your own counts when > you don't like the 
  automated counts. I highly recommend the > simplified EW approach used 
  by Robert Miner in his Dynamic > Trader book ($100 with full money back 
  guarantee at> <A 
  href="http://www.dynamictraders.com";>www.dynamictraders.com) ... I don't 
  use the DT3 software. I'm > not familiar with EW3 (I did have WinWaves 
  and didn't care > for it), however AGet which I use, allows one to 
  control > counts to a limited degree (short term, aggressive, regular, 
  > long term, plus localize) ... as a last resort I just turn > 
  the EW counts off and apply my own labels.> > Earl> 
  > ----- Original Message -----> From: "wavemechanic" <<A 
  href="mailto:wd78@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>wd78@xxxxxxxxxxxx>> To: <<A 
  href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>> 
  Sent: Wednesday, July 10, 2002 9:28 AM> Subject: Re: [RT] Re: 
  forecasting-track record> > > >   ----- 
  Original Message ----->   From: Karen 
  Beckwith>   To: <A 
  href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>   
  Sent: Wednesday, July 10, 2002 10:16 AM>   Subject: Re: [RT] 
  Re: forecasting-track record> > >   
  Jeff:>   Looking for a holy grail?  Have u ever looked 
  into the EW3 > (Elliott Wave)>   software?  I 
  can't find anyone who uses it, but it sounds > awfully 
  good.>   Anyone here familiar w/ EW3?> 
  >   I have not used EWII but did use the previous version 
  > WinWaves, and EWII is supposed to have a better analysis > 
  engine.  However, a couple of thoughts.  What is the correct 
  > count?  There are many counts and in the last analysis the 
  > only one that is right is yours.  So being able to do your 
  > own count is important, and the software is a tool to > 
  increase your efficiency and, perhaps, help you over the > rough 
  spots.  Having said that, one important feature that I > would be 
  sure to have is the ability to input my count and > see how it 
  plays.  Most EW programs do not have this option, > but if I 
  recall correctly ELWave does.  FWIW.> >   best 
  wishes,>   karen>   ps - May the force be 
  with you.>   :>)>   :>)> 
  >   ----- Original Message ----->   From: 
  "jeff97_98_1998" <<A 
  href="mailto:jprroth@xxxxxxxxxxx";>jprroth@xxxxxxxxxxx>>   
  To: <<A 
  href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>   
  Sent: Sunday, July 07, 2002 9:50 AM>   Subject: [RT] Re: 
  forecasting-track record> > >   
  >>   > "If one tries to fight these forces they will be 
  destroyed. If one>   > can unite and redirect these forces 
  to>   > ones advantage, one should be able to progress 
  quite swiftly.">   >>   
  >>   > Sounds like a re-run of Kung 
  Fu.>   > Grasshopper, my son, be of unity with the 
  universe.>   > Now catch this fly in my 
  soup.>   >>   > Please enlighten me, 
  how does one unite and redirect > these forces to>   
  > ones advantage?>   >>   > How do 
  I redirect a drought in the midwest, terrorist > attack 
  crashing>   > the S & P , lumber import regulations 
  vs. canadian exports?>   >>   > 
  Fundamentals, schmundamentals, blah, blah.>   
  >>   > I have the force, the unity, the 
  polarity...>   >>   > Beam me up 
  Scotty,  for I have discovered how markets>   > 
  work,  yet I waste my time trolling for fish.>   > 
  Why is that?>   >>   
  >>   >>   >>   
  >>   >>   >>   
  > --- In realtraders@x..., "Norman 
  Winski" <nwinski@x...> 
  wrote:>   > > Reinar,>   > 
  >>   > >   From one sailor to another, 
  when one's sailboat hits > a sand bar,>   > 
  that's>   > > called running a ground and that's not a 
  good thing.>   > >>   > >  
  I know it's time for me to take a vacation. Your > sailing 
  metaphor>   > is>   > > starting to 
  make sense to me.<G>  Seriously, I agree > that 
  sailing>   > is a good>   > > 
  analogy for trading, but not for the reasons you have stated. 
  I>   > think>   > > sailing is a 
  good analogy for trading because in order to be>   > 
  successful, one>   > > must join with the huge natural 
  forces at work.  If one tries to>   > fight 
  these>   > > forces they will be destroyed. If one can 
  unite and > redirect these>   > forces 
  to>   > > ones advantage, one should be able to 
  progress quite swiftly.>   > >>   > 
  >  Gann fans - the ideal position to attain maximum speed > is 
  to have>   > the sail>   > > at a 
  45 degree angle to the wind.>   > >>   
  > > Nautically,>   > >>   > 
  > Norman>   > >>   > 
  >>   > >>   > > ----- 
  Original Message ----->   > > From: "reinar2020" <<A 
  href="mailto:reinar2020@x";>reinar2020@x...>>   > 
  > To: <<A 
  href="mailto:realtraders@x";>realtraders@x...>>   > 
  > Sent: Sunday, July 07, 2002 12:33 AM>   > > 
  Subject: Re: [RT] forecasting-track record>   > 
  >>   > >>   > > > 
  Elk>   > > >>   > > > Not 
  only will I continue to use sailing as a metaphor > but I 
  will>   > > > expand the use. There are several 
  reasons. Selling to "the>   > traders">   
  > > > market is too limiting and more imortant.... If you can 
  think>   > like a>   > > > 
  sailor you can think like a profitable trader......>   > 
  > >>   > > >>   > > 
  > If you have ever been sailing you would know that it > is kind of 
  a>   > > > zen like experience where you have a very 
  specific > focus. All the>   > 
  BS>   > > > that is provided by the media etc is 
  gone.>   > > >>   > > > 
  There are other advantages. Any monkey can draw an > Andrews 
  line>   > and>   > > > if you 
  read his totally incomplete "free" 60 page > lit.... at 
  any>   > > > time there are at least 20 or so that 
  come in > tomorrow. So which>   > > > ones do 
  you use? Rather than take the standard > approach of 
  here>   > are>   > > > the lines 
  .....let get overwhelmed with stuff that is > 
  useless.....>   > > >>   > > 
  > I will focus upon about 3 kinds of sand bars and a 
  marker.>   > > > I did something similar in Vienna 
  seminars and the > sucess rate of>   > > > 
  the students over a long time period was very high.>   > 
  > >>   > > > Focus upon the chicken ( the end 
  result.. you really > want ) not on>   > > > 
  the eggs.>   > > >>   > > 
  > We look for 4 things...>   > > 
  >>   > > > 1) sand bars (support and resistance 
  lines) where > prices stop for>   > 
  a>   > > > bar or 2 and then go 
  through>   > > >>   > > > 
  2) sand bars where prices go through and then go back to it 
  to>   > touch>   > > > it before 
  continuing in the proper direction>   > > 
  >>   > > > (the above are very handy for adding 
  on positions or > getting in>   > 
  with>   > > > definable risk....the other side of 
  the sand bar line)>   > > >>   > 
  > > 3) and finally sand bars that are likely to produce a > 
  tradeable>   > > > pivot ....like i pointed out on 
  thursday in an email > I sent out.>   > > 
  >>   > > > 4) and then how to find markers 
  (probable future pivot points)>   > > 
  >>   > > > Now instead of learning how to draw 
  all of those > silly lines you>   > > > 
  learned how to draw lines that produced the above > 
  .......wouldn't>   > > > Andrews really work 
  .....and very easily at that?>   > > 
  >>   > > > Oh by the way did you ever learn what 
  the Andrews > "ROS" line was?>   > > > 
  Hint....its a sand bar.>   > > >>   
  > > >>   > > > Regards>   
  > > > R>   > > >>   > 
  > >>   > > >>   > > 
  > --- In realtraders@x..., Infernal Elk 
  > <infernalelk@x...> 
  wrote:>   > > > >>   > > 
  > > >>  John either you are blind or you faded the 
  forecast.>   > > > > >>  ...or does 
  north mean go short to you?>   > > > 
  >>   > > > > >>  
  R>   > > > >>   > > > 
  > maybe if you spoke in market terms rather than > cryptic 
  pseudo->   > > > poetic>   > 
  > > > "nautical" terms, people would understand 
  you.>   > > > >>   > > 
  > > if your desire is to communicate, then do so > CLEARLY.  
  if your>   > > > desire>   > 
  > > > is to tease and to draw people in to buy your > product 
  you'll do>   > > > better>   > 
  > > > to speak clearly as well.>   > > > 
  >>   > > > > we're not sailors.  we're 
  traders.>   > > > >>   > > 
  > > - *lk>   > > >>   > 
  > >>   > > >>   > > 
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