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John
Today I was on the phone with a guy at the FDA giving me
professional advice. Then he found out what I did and I gave him my
advice. ...It went ..."Since you do not know what you are doing look
at long term CD's and low risk second deeds of trust".
I hang with some guys who most would consider experts and when we
forecast for ten years out most of us say "dont know". I would
venture to guess that we just went through a 1930 style wash out in
the markets and that those who wish to make money in it need to
remenber that it is really a market of stocks and find the good
stuff that way.
Regards
R
--- In realtraders@xxxx, John Cappello <jvc689@xxxx> wrote:
> Dear Ira,
>
> Aside from trading, I am concerned that you would not look at 10
year
> periods at a minimum for any investment be it bonds, mutual funds,
> stocks or what have you.
>
> Most people,perhaps not you, retire with the hope of clipping
coupons
> or withdrawing a set amount from their investments annually with
the
> hope that they will survive their principal.
>
> Sure there are a lot of ways to make money by trading innovatively
in
> a new market environment. But it is uncommon to have annual living
> earnings for every year of trading.And some have illnesses which
> prevent their active trading so they must teach. To each his own.
But
> to misinterpret the meaning of plotting past performance which
covers
> good and bad times is doing a disservice to sound financial
> planning.And to plan you need to start from somewhere.
>
> I have a set of mutual funds that survived a 7% withdrawal rate
and
> still doubled its remaining dollars from the three 10 year periods
> from March:
>
> 1972 to 1982
>
> 1982 to 1992
>
> 1992 to 2002
>
> That's my plan and to trade for bonus profits.I can also
reallocate
> if I desire. Others may have different plans and I am not saying
my
> way is the only way.
>
> I trust you see the dichotomy of our thought patterns here.
>
> John
>
>
>
>
>
> ------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
> Originally From: "ira" <irat@xxxx>
> Subject: [RT] DOW and others
> Date: 07/08/2002 10:11pm
>
>
> I have read what everyone thinks about where this index or that
will
> be in 6 mos., a year, 10 years. Will it be like the 70s or
something
> different? What difference does it make where you think an index
> will be in 10 years. You have no idea where you'll be in 10 years
> let alone where the market will be. I have found that over the
years
> it pays to take the market a few bars at a time. That allows you
to
> select which few bars you wish to watch. Could it be monthly,
> weekly, daily or one of the intra day charts? I don't know about
> anyone else, but I made a lot of money in that so called stagnant
> market of the 70s. There were those that got rich buy selling a
> couple thousand dollars a day in naked calls and letting them
expire
> worthless. There were no puts at the time and the expirations
where
> 3 months apart. Some sold stock short and watched companies go
out
> of business. There were dozens of other strategies that made
money
> during that period. There were many that made money going long
> various instruments. There were dozens of mutual funds that just
> disappeared. But that is not what counts for one that trades for
a
> living. The thing is to master the tools at ones disposal and
make
> money in any type of market. It doesn't make any difference if
you
> use Fib. numbers, forks, Gann, Eliot or the location of the
planets.
> There are more instruments to trade with today then at any other
time
> in the markets history. The name of the game for a trader is the
> same as for any other business. Cash flow, not inventory. It
> doesn't matter if you make 2 or 3 trades a month or 5 trades a
day,
> you need money to pay your bills at the end of the month. That
has
> nothing to do with where anything will be in 10 years or next
year.
> The key is where will price be when my trade is done and will
there
> be enough to pay the bills with. Ira
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