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Dear Daniel,
Case closed. NP with your comments.
Sincerely,
John
------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
Originally From: Daniel Goncharoff <thegonch@xxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: [RT] Questions
Date: 07/07/2002 03:34pm
John Cappello wrote:
>
> Dear Daniel,
>
> It is a pleasure to dialog on this subject witout personalities
> involved. To your points.
Likewise...
>
> 1. Time will tell whether the rally is significant. Right now from
> what I see it is a matter of informed opinion and not fact.I am on
> the side of significance for numerous reasons posted.To me it would
> be like saying the drop in 1987 was not significant.
We can agree to disagree.
>
> 2. Your speedometer analogy is lost on me. You control the speed on
> your speedometer. The market controls your indicaters usually in a
> lagging way.
I trade using a couple of moving averages in multiple timeframes as
support or resistance. The (visual) comparison of price to MA tells
me a
lot about how fast a stock has been moving, like a speedometer. I rely
on stocks maintaining a minimum speed (staying on one side if the MA)
for a while. When they don't, I close out the position.
>
> 3. Driving a car is in no way comparable to trading. In debating
> circles that is to me "begging the question". I do believe that
there
> is that one in a million or more who can successfully use
> Pitchforks.But I may have only seen one or two do it.It is not as
> easy as "advertised".
When I am trading, it feels very similar to defensive driving. Just
as I
stay aware of traffic around me, check my mirrors, and worry about the
possibility of someone sitting in my blind spot, I watch the market:
what's moving, what isn't, what are the risk potentials, what are the
opportunities. I am not looking for a testable system, just an
approach
that gets me safely from here to there.
As for the use of pitchforks and home run hitters, perhaps a problem
many people have trading is they keep looking for the home run ball,
rather than just showing up and driving safely from here to there. If
I
can make money 'driving', then I have no doubt it can be done using
pitchforks too.
Regards
DanG
>
> There is only one Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron , Ted Williams {RIP}, and
> Barry Bonds. Of note they do not all come around at the same time.
>
> Regards,
>
> John
>
> ------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
> Originally From: Daniel Goncharoff <thegonch@xxxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: Re: [RT] Questions
> Date: 07/07/2002 01:53pm
>
> John Cappello wrote:
> >
> > Dear Daniel,
> >
> > In response to the items you noted:
> >
> > 1. I think the rally was significant, especially in light of it
> > coming before a weekend that threatened terrorism. I am sure the
> > change in short interest numbers when available will help as will
> the
> > actual volume numbers. It would be most unusual in the history of
> the
> > US for the second half of the second year of a first term
President
> > to be a down one. This rally is just the start of that, to me.
That
> > plus sound economic numbers which will eventually justify Dow PE's
> > are some of my reasons.
>
> I find your comment interesting, since it contradicts the
commentators
> calling Friday's rally a relief rally after the absence of organized
> terrorism on the Fourth of July.
>
> Someone else expressed my thought already: the rally is not
> significant
> (whatever that means) until it breaks the downtrend. OTOH, it was a
> great money-making opportunity in the very short term, so to that
> extent
> is was already significant...
> >
> > 2. No indicater battle from me...just that your sppedometer does
not
> > predict hoe fast or slow you will go.
>
> Not completely true. It does tell me how fast I will go if my speed
> doesn't change, and it tells me when my speed does change, so I know
> whether the previous piece of information is still useful.
> >
> > 6. Barry Bonds has God given eye hand co-ordination plus talent.
He
> > is one in multi-millions. If you keep that same analogy, that is
> > where I come from re. Pitchfork lines even math generated.If there
> > are people who can successfully use Pitchforks alone, they are one
> in
> > millions. They tell the past and attempt to foretell the future.
>
> So you admit is is possible; now we are discussing how prevalent
> success
> might be. Driving a car successfully also takes coordination and
> perception. Millions do it. Computers still can't. Why do you think
> using pitchforks (which, BTW, I don't) is closer to home-run hitting
> than driving your car??
>
> Regards
> DanG
> >
> > Now you know better than to suggest I write a program for talent
and
> > experience.As I see it one is God given and the other is time
> > dependent.
> >
> > Sincerely,
> >
> > John
> >
> > ------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
> > Originally From: Daniel Goncharoff <thegonch@xxxxxxxxxx>
> > Subject: Re: [RT] Questions
> > Date: 07/07/2002 07:44am
> >
> > John Cappello wrote:
> > >
> > > 1. What makes anyone think that a rally as significant as Fri.
was
> > > just short covering?
> >
> > What makes you think the rally was 'significant'? If we look at
mid-
> > June
> > we had a trough-to-peak move of similar size, and then continued
the
> > downtrend. The right question is how does anyone know whether
those
> > who
> > were absent Friday come back as buyers or sellers? My solution is
to
> > buy
> > volatility, and let the market figure out where it wants to go...
> > >
> > > 2. What makes anyone think that Hurst Channels will be anything
> more
> > > than just another indicater given the amount of work put into
it.
> >
> > I don't want to start the indicator battle again, but I like
> > indicators,
> > rather than just relying on price itself, in the same way I like
> > having
> > a speedometer in my car, although I can judge my speed by the rate
> at
> > which stationary objects move past.
> > >
> > > 3. Why should Norm offer more sound advice than he already does
at
> > no
> > > charge?
> > >
> > > 4. Why were most TA people pointing their indicaters down on
Fri.?
> > >
> > > 5. Why do people seem to think that the ability to program
> > correlates
> > > with coming up with sound ideas that are useful for real time
> > trading?
> > >
> > > 6. How can pitchforks be reliable when they are so dependent
upon
> > the
> > > eye and perception?
> >
> > How can Barry Bonds hit so many home runs, when making contact is
so
> > dependent on the eye and perception?
> >
> > Perhaps you just can't write a computer program for talent and
> > experience.
> >
> > Regards
> > DanG
> > >
> > > These are just a few questions I have had after seeing so many
> posts
> > > on these subjects.They are meant for educational purposes of
> myself
> > > and perhaps others. I have more, but they can wait.
> > >
> > > John
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
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