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----- Original Message -----
From: "Adrian Pitt" <apitt@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, July 04, 2002 7:55 AM
Subject: RE: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
> Norman,,
>
> DON'T YOU READ???? Jim mentioned nothing of the random nature of
> markets!!!!!
> He was referring to the compounding of returns and its benefits
> highlighted in a book CALLED
> "A Random Walk Down Wall Street"
>
> For someone who has been trading for over 20 years SURELY you know the
> markets aren't random?
> The more you write the less interested I become in finding out about
> the material you offer.
>
> Adrian,
I can't believe you would even consider investigating material from an
imbecile like me.
How smart does that make you? Seriously, your token carrot is totally BS.
If you were at all interested, you would have come to see me when I was
lecturing in your neighborhood last year. My guess is that you wouldn't be
so upset if I didn't hit a nerve about short term trading. Maybe you are
among the majority of short term traders who are addicted to trading and
don't want to hear anything negative that may make you face your problem? I
have known several brilliant traders who died in their 40s because they were
trading addicts. It's a serious problem for some. Those with the problem are
usually in denial and don't want to hear anything that would pop their
bubble or stop the adrenaline rush. Well, thanks for freeing me to say
anything I want. Now that I am an imbecile, it really doesn't matter what I
say. You should probably put me on autodelete.
Cheers,
Norman
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Norman Winski [mailto:nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > Sent: Thursday, 4 July 2002 7:56 AM
> > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
> >
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Jim White" <jwhite43@xxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 5:51 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
> >
> >
> > > Unfortunately Norman, the data does not agree. Research has
> > shown tha
> > > ROI decreases with holding period - so taking quick profits and
> > > compounding
> > the
> > > results is the way to maximize profits. The data is sighted in "A
> > > Random Walk Down Wall Street", page 404. Of course you
> > need a trading
> > methodology
> > > to reliably capture the short term moves.
> > > Jim,
> >
> > Hasn't the Random Walk theory been disproven? I think there
> > has since been a sequel to the book you mentioned that
> > disproves the Random Walk theory.
> >
> > Regards,
> >
> > Norman
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 2:38 PM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
> > >
> > >
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "Jim White" <jwhite43@xxxxxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 5:16 PM
> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > I have followed the discussion on Hurst cycles with silence but
> > > > > now I believe it is time to speak up. The Hurst book
> > actually has
> > > > > some very significant content however his
> > > > basic
> > > > > premise has been proven to be incorrect. Hurst presents several
> > > statements
> > > > > with out verification. For example " The impact of wars, global
> > > financial
> > > > > crisis, and all other similar events on market price action is
> > > > > utterly negligible." It has been shown through the
> > application of
> > > > > chaotic
> > models
> > > > > that these impulses do have an impact although they are
> > limited in
> > their
> > > > > duration.
> > > > > The use of static cycles to forecast future price
> > movement is also
> > > doomed
> > > > to
> > > > > failure. There have been many attempts to duplicate and
> > forecast
> > > > > price action with composite static cycles and all have failed
> > > > > simply because
> > > the
> > > > > market is not composed of static cycles. Even an attempt to
> > > > > determine
> > > the
> > > > > current dominant cycles will fail because the cycles
> > will change
> > > > > due
> > to
> > > > > lateset conditions. The new information may or may not be in the
> > > direction
> > > > > of the old cycles.A much more likely composition, also
> > supported
> > > > > by
> > > > studies
> > > > > of chaotic models, is that the market is composed of dynamic
> > > > > cycles
> > with
> > > > > diminishing amplitude. Since these cycles are always
> > changing, due
> > > > > to
> > > the
> > > > > latest impulse to impact the market, they are
> > predictable only in
> > > > > the
> > > very
> > > > > short term. The real value of Hurst's work is to show
> > that profits
> > > > > are maximized by short term trading. Jim White
> > > >
> > > > Jim,
> > > >
> > > > I was going to stay out of this until your last statement ". The
> > > > real
> > > value
> > > > of Hurst's work is to show that profits are > maximized by short
> > > > term trading." Most of the studies I have seen indicate that the
> > > > more you
> > > trade
> > > > the greater your risk of ruin. Each time you trade you
> > take a risk.
> > > > The
> > > more
> > > > you trade, the greater the risk. Very few of the really
> > big traders
> > > > - investors such as George Soros or Warren Buffett made
> > their money
> > > > doing
> > > alot
> > > > of short term trades. The big money is made riding the
> > big moves and
> > > > not getting in and out. Some of the saviest traders I met
> > during my
> > > > Chicago
> > > days
> > > > made their big money on a few big moves. The short term
> > trading was
> > just
> > > > rent money. I propose to ammend the above statement to read,
> > > > "...that brokers profits are maximized by short term trading."
> > > >
> > > > Regards,
> > > >
> > > > Norman
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > From: "Clyde Lee" <clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 10:34 AM
> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > > > More likely the parameters for generation of the
> > prediction of
> > > > > > the cycle were wrong.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > We will have to wait for the Centered Moving Averages
> > to catch
> > > > > > up with the data to make the kind of judgment you
> > have made with
> > > > > > insufficient data.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Remember, the REALTIME values for the Hurst channels are an
> > > > > > ATTEMPT to predict what the real values of the CMAs
> > will be and
> > > > > > that ATTEMPT to estimate can be really wrong at times.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Everyone needs to understand that the attempt to estimate the
> > > > > > realtime CMA values is strictly that -- an attempt.
> > Currently
> > > > > > we are using classical Fourier analysis and have limited
> > > > > > ourselves to only 3 components to construct
> > envelopes. We may
> > > > > > be using too many or too few -- at this stage in
> > development I
> > > > > > do not have a good feeling of what it takes to better
> > match the
> > > > > > eventual values of the CMAs but you can bet we are
> > still working
> > > > > > on it.
> > > > > >
> > > > > > Clyde
> > > > > >
> > > > > > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> > > > > > Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
> > > > > > SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > > > 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
> > > > > > Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
> > > > > > Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
> > > > > > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> > > > > >
> > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > > > From: "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 12:25 PM
> > > > > > Subject: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > > > I guess we fell into the 10% of the time its wrong.
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
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> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
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> > > > > > >
> > > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
> > > > > >
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