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Ahhh, now we get interesting
here...
The difficulty in this thread is the necessity
of examining what we are trying to do with Hurst channels orthagonally. That is,
right now we are only looking at one or even two dimensions of prior
expectations or results and this can be misleading IMHO.
We have all been exposed to situations that
"should not" work, but do. In fact, they're robust as hell, but in concept, we
might reject them out of hand.
Even in this case as presented by Clyde, where
he speaks of "prices move SO FAR OUT... that exceptional trading opportunities
exist...", it depends on how each of us translates that... Most of us might say
he's talking about a Return to the Norm, yet I have a modified "Extreme
Momentum" system originally created by William Brower that uses extreme momentum
to trade in the *same* direction. The answer is that either way can work,
depending on the symbol, and depending on the code interpretation of the core
concept.
I recently saw an Oddball concept with
unexpected results. What got it there? Orthagonal thinking most
likely.
At the same time, rejecting the notion that
"short term" price direction is impossible to predict is dangerous to one's
pocketbook.
It can be argued that a simple reversal (or
partial reversal) on a "failed" entry at an extreme is neither proof nor folly,
but rather a necessary given.
The longer I hack away at this market chaos, the more the
answer appears to be statistical mixed with prediction mixed with pattern
recognition, mixed with savvy money management.
Best regards,
Gene Pope
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Clyde
Lee
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 9:45
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the
Hurst cycle?
Whether the cycle that is projected is early a
bit or late a bit with respect
the real INFLECTION of the Centered Moving
Average is not all that
important.
What Hurst was trying to demonstrate and what I
hope we are beginning
to see a bit of is that even though the
projections may be off a bit in time
or price, when prices move significantly outside
the projected channels
then that is a VERY LOW RISK point at which
trading should take place.
Later I will post some stuff on the DX and
indicate just how we can improve
our estimates of where the next inflection point
will be by comparing the
rate of change of the projection to rate of
change of the CMAs at prior
inflections. Of course we will have to wait
a couple of weeks to see
if that is correct BUT if it is then we certainly
should be buying dollars.
REMEMBER, we are not trying to project prices --
God forbid as that has
been shown to be a death trap -- but are trying
to project areas in which
prices move SO FAR OUT of the "norm" that
exceptional trading
opportunities exist.
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - - - - -Clyde Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx 7910
Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com- - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
<A title=delta88343@xxxxxxx
href="mailto:delta88343@xxxxxxx";>delta88343@xxxxxxx
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 8:35
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the
Hurst cycle?
<FONT lang=0 face=Arial size=2
FAMILY="SANSSERIF">Clyde,Your work is certainly noteworthy and
deserves a lot of respect. I wish I had 1/10th the knowledge you
have.But from my limited experience and knowledge of cycles, how
would such a system, or any cycle system for that matter, take into
consideration that cycles expand and contract from both the smaller and
larger cycles that surround the cyclical time frame in question.It
is from this phenomena that I have always attributed to projected cycle
points being late or early. As many have posted before on RT, and
applies to all cycle work I would imagine, since I've seen the best cycle
work from individuals on this list and others be wrong at times (or should
we say late or early more appropriately). As soon as a point is late or
early, all ask "what happend?" Don't you hate that?I know I
do.ThanksTo unsubscribe from this group,
send an email
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