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Hello Ira,
RW disproved because its basic presume disproved - prices do not
follow log-normal distribution. their distribution is rather Pareto
with "fat" tails. (these tails are often referred as "rare events",
LTCM story is classical example). everyone can see it in Excel. RW
does not "work" in common sense of this word, it may only produce good
results on coincidental basis, by luck. same true for many other
market theories.
Best regards,
Alex mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx
Thursday, July 4, 2002, 2:47:24 AM, you wrote:
IT> I can not think of any theory that has not been disproved by someone and proved
IT> by someone else. If the system works for you, the name means very little or
IT> someone else's proof that it shouldn't work. Theoretically bees can't fly,
IT> there is still a flat earth society and bleeding is still practiced in certain
IT> areas of the world, and we are going back to using maggots in health care along
IT> with leaches. What is this world coming to? No sooner do things become
IT> outmoded and proven to be of little use then someone else discovers that they
IT> are a far better solution then its replacement. With all of the computer power,
IT> analysis capability and the availability of data, I haven't seen anything new in
IT> trading that beats what has been used for years. Proved or disproved. Ira.
IT> Jim White wrote:
>> The data and the conclusions of the data have nothing to do with the Random
>> Walk theory. But, yes, you are correct, recent work has disproved the random
>> walk theory and the mistaken caveat that the best way to invest is for the
>> long term.
>> Jim
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 2:56 PM
>> Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
>>
>> >
>> > ----- Original Message -----
>> > From: "Jim White" <jwhite43@xxxxxxx>
>> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 5:51 PM
>> > Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
>> >
>> >
>> > > Unfortunately Norman, the data does not agree. Research has shown tha
>> ROI
>> > > decreases with holding period - so taking quick profits and compounding
>> > the
>> > > results is the way to maximize profits. The data is sighted in "A Random
>> > > Walk Down Wall Street", page 404. Of course you need a trading
>> > methodology
>> > > to reliably capture the short term moves.
>> > > Jim,
>> >
>> > Hasn't the Random Walk theory been disproven? I think there has since
>> been
>> > a sequel to the book you mentioned that disproves the Random Walk theory.
>> >
>> > Regards,
>> >
>> > Norman
>> > > ----- Original Message -----
>> > > From: "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > > Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 2:38 PM
>> > > Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
>> > >
>> > >
>> > > >
>> > > > ----- Original Message -----
>> > > > From: "Jim White" <jwhite43@xxxxxxx>
>> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > > > Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 5:16 PM
>> > > > Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
>> > > >
>> > > >
>> > > > > I have followed the discussion on Hurst cycles with silence but now
>> I
>> > > > > believe it is time to speak up.
>> > > > > The Hurst book actually has some very significant content however
>> his
>> > > > basic
>> > > > > premise has been proven to be incorrect. Hurst presents several
>> > > statements
>> > > > > with out verification. For example " The impact of wars, global
>> > > financial
>> > > > > crisis, and all other similar events on market price action is
>> utterly
>> > > > > negligible." It has been shown through the application of chaotic
>> > models
>> > > > > that these impulses do have an impact although they are limited in
>> > their
>> > > > > duration.
>> > > > > The use of static cycles to forecast future price movement is also
>> > > doomed
>> > > > to
>> > > > > failure. There have been many attempts to duplicate and forecast
>> price
>> > > > > action with composite static cycles and all have failed simply
>> because
>> > > the
>> > > > > market is not composed of static cycles. Even an attempt to
>> determine
>> > > the
>> > > > > current dominant cycles will fail because the cycles will change due
>> > to
>> > > > > lateset conditions. The new information may or may not be in the
>> > > direction
>> > > > > of the old cycles.A much more likely composition, also supported by
>> > > > studies
>> > > > > of chaotic models, is that the market is composed of dynamic cycles
>> > with
>> > > > > diminishing amplitude. Since these cycles are always changing, due
>> to
>> > > the
>> > > > > latest impulse to impact the market, they are predictable only in
>> the
>> > > very
>> > > > > short term. The real value of Hurst's work is to show that profits
>> are
>> > > > > maximized by short term trading.
>> > > > > Jim White
>> > > >
>> > > > Jim,
>> > > >
>> > > > I was going to stay out of this until your last statement ". The real
>> > > value
>> > > > of Hurst's work is to show that profits are > maximized by short term
>> > > > trading." Most of the studies I have seen indicate that the more you
>> > > trade
>> > > > the greater your risk of ruin. Each time you trade you take a risk.
>> The
>> > > more
>> > > > you trade, the greater the risk. Very few of the really big traders -
>> > > > investors such as George Soros or Warren Buffett made their money
>> doing
>> > > alot
>> > > > of short term trades. The big money is made riding the big moves and
>> not
>> > > > getting in and out. Some of the saviest traders I met during my
>> Chicago
>> > > days
>> > > > made their big money on a few big moves. The short term trading was
>> > just
>> > > > rent money. I propose to ammend the above statement to read, "...that
>> > > > brokers profits are maximized by short term trading."
>> > > >
>> > > > Regards,
>> > > >
>> > > > Norman
>> > > >
>> > > >
>> > > >
>> > > > > ----- Original Message -----
>> > > > > From: "Clyde Lee" <clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > > > > Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 10:34 AM
>> > > > > Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
>> > > > >
>> > > > >
>> > > > > > More likely the parameters for generation of the prediction of
>> > > > > > the cycle were wrong.
>> > > > > >
>> > > > > > We will have to wait for the Centered Moving Averages to catch
>> > > > > > up with the data to make the kind of judgment you have made
>> > > > > > with insufficient data.
>> > > > > >
>> > > > > > Remember, the REALTIME values for the Hurst channels are an
>> > > > > > ATTEMPT to predict what the real values of the CMAs will be
>> > > > > > and that ATTEMPT to estimate can be really wrong at times.
>> > > > > >
>> > > > > > Everyone needs to understand that the attempt to estimate the
>> > > > > > realtime CMA values is strictly that -- an attempt. Currently we
>> > > > > > are using classical Fourier analysis and have limited ourselves
>> > > > > > to only 3 components to construct envelopes. We may be
>> > > > > > using too many or too few -- at this stage in development I
>> > > > > > do not have a good feeling of what it takes to better match the
>> > > > > > eventual values of the CMAs but you can bet we are still
>> > > > > > working on it.
>> > > > > >
>> > > > > > Clyde
>> > > > > >
>> > > > > > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
>> > > > > > Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
>> > > > > > SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
>> > > > > > 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
>> > > > > > Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
>> > > > > > Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
>> > > > > > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
>> > > > > >
>> > > > > > ----- Original Message -----
>> > > > > > From: "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > > > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> > > > > > Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 12:25 PM
>> > > > > > Subject: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
>> > > > > >
>> > > > > >
>> > > > > > > I guess we fell into the 10% of the time its wrong.
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > >
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>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > >
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>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > > >
>> > > > > >
>> > > > > >
>> > > > > >
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>> > > > > >
>> > > > > >
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>> > > > > >
>> > > > >
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