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----- Original Message -----
From: "Jim White" <jwhite43@xxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 5:51 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
> Unfortunately Norman, the data does not agree. Research has shown tha ROI
> decreases with holding period - so taking quick profits and compounding
the
> results is the way to maximize profits. The data is sighted in "A Random
> Walk Down Wall Street", page 404. Of course you need a trading
methodology
> to reliably capture the short term moves.
> Jim,
Hasn't the Random Walk theory been disproven? I think there has since been
a sequel to the book you mentioned that disproves the Random Walk theory.
Regards,
Norman
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Norman Winski" <nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 2:38 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
>
>
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: "Jim White" <jwhite43@xxxxxxx>
> > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 5:16 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
> >
> >
> > > I have followed the discussion on Hurst cycles with silence but now I
> > > believe it is time to speak up.
> > > The Hurst book actually has some very significant content however his
> > basic
> > > premise has been proven to be incorrect. Hurst presents several
> statements
> > > with out verification. For example " The impact of wars, global
> financial
> > > crisis, and all other similar events on market price action is utterly
> > > negligible." It has been shown through the application of chaotic
models
> > > that these impulses do have an impact although they are limited in
their
> > > duration.
> > > The use of static cycles to forecast future price movement is also
> doomed
> > to
> > > failure. There have been many attempts to duplicate and forecast price
> > > action with composite static cycles and all have failed simply because
> the
> > > market is not composed of static cycles. Even an attempt to determine
> the
> > > current dominant cycles will fail because the cycles will change due
to
> > > lateset conditions. The new information may or may not be in the
> direction
> > > of the old cycles.A much more likely composition, also supported by
> > studies
> > > of chaotic models, is that the market is composed of dynamic cycles
with
> > > diminishing amplitude. Since these cycles are always changing, due to
> the
> > > latest impulse to impact the market, they are predictable only in the
> very
> > > short term. The real value of Hurst's work is to show that profits are
> > > maximized by short term trading.
> > > Jim White
> >
> > Jim,
> >
> > I was going to stay out of this until your last statement ". The real
> value
> > of Hurst's work is to show that profits are > maximized by short term
> > trading." Most of the studies I have seen indicate that the more you
> trade
> > the greater your risk of ruin. Each time you trade you take a risk. The
> more
> > you trade, the greater the risk. Very few of the really big traders -
> > investors such as George Soros or Warren Buffett made their money doing
> alot
> > of short term trades. The big money is made riding the big moves and not
> > getting in and out. Some of the saviest traders I met during my Chicago
> days
> > made their big money on a few big moves. The short term trading was
just
> > rent money. I propose to ammend the above statement to read, "...that
> > brokers profits are maximized by short term trading."
> >
> > Regards,
> >
> > Norman
> >
> >
> >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: "Clyde Lee" <clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 10:34 AM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
> > >
> > >
> > > > More likely the parameters for generation of the prediction of
> > > > the cycle were wrong.
> > > >
> > > > We will have to wait for the Centered Moving Averages to catch
> > > > up with the data to make the kind of judgment you have made
> > > > with insufficient data.
> > > >
> > > > Remember, the REALTIME values for the Hurst channels are an
> > > > ATTEMPT to predict what the real values of the CMAs will be
> > > > and that ATTEMPT to estimate can be really wrong at times.
> > > >
> > > > Everyone needs to understand that the attempt to estimate the
> > > > realtime CMA values is strictly that -- an attempt. Currently we
> > > > are using classical Fourier analysis and have limited ourselves
> > > > to only 3 components to construct envelopes. We may be
> > > > using too many or too few -- at this stage in development I
> > > > do not have a good feeling of what it takes to better match the
> > > > eventual values of the CMAs but you can bet we are still
> > > > working on it.
> > > >
> > > > Clyde
> > > >
> > > > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> > > > Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
> > > > SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > 7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
> > > > Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
> > > > Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
> > > > - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: "bondo92677" <bruce.larson@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > > > Sent: Wednesday, July 03, 2002 12:25 PM
> > > > Subject: [RT] What happened to the Hurst cycle?
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > > I guess we fell into the 10% of the time its wrong.
> > > > >
> > > > >
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> > > > >
> > > >
> > > >
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