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People can put forth as many theories as there are grains of sand and still
not make any money in the markets. It doesn't make any difference if the
psychology is good or bad or if time is applying positive or negative
influences upon the market. What drives the markets is money, whether it be
Dollars, Euros or Francs and the abundance or lack of supply. Like they say
on the crime shows, "follow the money". Where the money is going is shown
by the charts.
No matter what the political, economic or social character the country is
going through, there is money to be made in the markets by either being long
or short. If you can find a stock or future that is dormant then write
covered calls. Look around you and see what is happening in the world
around you and then go to the charts and see what to do. Oil is at $26
dollars a barrel not $12, the grains just broke to new highs, gold is at
$300+ per ounce not $250, housing prices are up 6% to 30% depending upon
where you live, we are buying replacements for armaments used during
various military engagements. The cost of everything is rising except
computers and the government says there is no inflation. What about the cost
of living? The only thing that we are not paying for is the air we breath
and I guess through the EPA we are paying for that.
There are opportunities in every area of investing and trading. You just
have to understand how to use the information. Once you start to trade, use
the charts for information because they are the only truth in the markets.
Don't read the papers, listen to the radio or watch TV for investment or
economic information. Everything you need to know is right before your eyes
on the chart. Money talks and BS walks and the chart tells you what the
money is saying. That is what you have to pay attention to. Have a good
week end. Ira.
----- Original Message -----
From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, June 30, 2002 8:04 AM
Subject: RE: [RT] Investing Now?- Tech is D-E-A-D
> Earl - unquestionably both your chart analysis and follow-up discourse
were
> very well done....
> and I concur. A drop of this magnitude and duration (we're not through yet
> !) is a paradigm shift in thinking AND action: social, psychological, and
> most importantly financial. In Tech, the crash has already occurred and is
> affecting many, many people that are "techies".
>
> To wit: The 90's had "techies rule". Right now: "techies are
> dead.....totally and completely".
> Recent stats and anecdotal evidence has over 1 MILLION American
programmers
> out of work. Recent surveys of tech consulting firms show their "book of
> business" or "reqs (requirements)" are DOWN between 70 and 90 percent...
> depending on the area of the country. Recruiters are getting from between
> 100 and 500 resumes PER DAY when a new opening appears. So as far as the
> Nasdaq goes, it has already reached 1929 (-90%) proportions business-wise
> already. Stock prices of really hi-tech internet firms such as Rare Medium
> (RRRR), Razorfish (RAZF), Scient (SCNT) are DOWN 99%+....so they've gone
> beyond 1929 in terms of depression.
> Because of the tech consulting depression and the complete stoppage by
large
> corporations of new tech projects, promising new technologies such as Java
> and XML are languishing "on the shelf" so-to-speak.
>
> I mention this because anyone expecting a "new technology wave" anywhere
> near the proportions of the 1990's is totally and completely without
regard
> for history as you've pointed out.
> The Nasdaq will be the new "slow growth" market of the 21st century.
> Boring stocks such as insurance, banks, etc. will be the new growth
> areas....
> and the highest growth business will be THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT.
> And, social-wise, the tendency towards socialism in the USA will be
greater
> than ever in the past.
> This will have a MAJOR CHILLING EFFECT on productivity and growth in the
> USA.
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Earl Adamy [mailto:eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx]
> > Sent: Saturday, June 29, 2002 10:35 AM
> > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: Re: [RT] Investing Now?
> >
> >
> > I don't disagree that fundamentals often have no validity to market
prices
> > and that they are boring to boot. Markets are not about fundamentals,
> > markets are about the cycles of human psychology which range from
extreme
> > greed to extreme fear. The truly major cycles run quite regularly ...
> > roughly every 3-4 generations. There is no great mystery as to the why
...
> > the collective memory of the living requires 3-4 generations to forget
the
> > extremes of the previous fear ... there was a period in the 1930's
during
> > which investors paid interest (a simplification) to the government for
the
> > privilege of owning treasury bills. And this is where the
> > fundamentals come
> > in ... one needs to keep an eye on the broad picture of
> > fundamentals because
> > they tell the trader/investor how everything fits into the big cycle and
> > that provides guidance regarding market risk. There have been investor
> > manias for all of recorded history with some of the more recent
including
> > South Sea trading companies, tulips, and the great stock market bubbles
of
> > the 20's and 90's. There have been others, of lesser note such as the
bull
> > market of the 60's led by computer stocks which have not ridden the
great
> > extremes, but never-the-less exhibit the same swings of greed and fear.
It
> > is the basic purpose of technical analysis to attempt the measure and
> > quantification of fear and greed in the time frame being analyzed
> > whether it
> > be minutes, hours, days, weeks, months, years, or decades.
> >
> > My parents vividly remembered and told me stories of the Great
Depression
> > ... these were people who were comfortable with cash and would never
touch
> > stocks. I was a hot shot, twenty-something computer entrepreneur
> > during the
> > 1960's. I became intimately familiar with the view of the
> > investment banking
> > community of those years which would take any carcass public as long as
it
> > was named "computer" something and could be kept on a resuscitator long
> > enough to extract the 10-15% in various fees to be extracted from the
> > public's money (AKA IPO proceeds). Eventually, the computer bubble (and
> > Nifty Fifty) burst and we were treated to televised congressional
> > investigations, investment bankers vowing to erect "Chinese Walls" (no
> > disrespect to the Chinese) between investment banking and retail
analysts,
> > and hand wringing regulators vowing to fix things. Any of that
> > sound vaguely
> > familiar?
> >
> > The major difference between the 1960's and now is that in the
> > 1960's there
> > was still enough generational memory remaining from the 1930's to
mitigate
> > some of the excess. As the last great bull market progressed, any
> > half-witted student of market history could see that there was zero
> > collective memory of the 1930's. The last of the regulations
> > enacted during
> > the 1930's were being tossed aside in the name of deregulation, free
> > enterprise, and the "public good". I vividly remember the congressional
> > hearings on the repeal of the Glass-Stegal provisions just a few years
ago
> > and thinking that the end of the major cycle could not be far off. And
> > before Kenneth Lay and Enron there was a guy named Samuel Insul
> > who managed
> > to construct the greatest corporate Ponzi scheme of the 1920's. It was
> > probably no coincidence that the foundations of both Enron and Chicago
> > Edison lay in none other than the boring old utility business.
Naturally,
> > all those old utility regulations passed during the 1930's had since
been
> > relegated to the scrap heap of history so that energy traders could reap
> > vast profits while screwing the public.
> >
> > To summarize, your dismissal of history and apparent lack of knowledge
> > regarding human psychology do not speak well for the quality of your
> > educational experience. Not only does the end of the latest great bull
> > market have enormous implications for the pocketbook, but it has
enormous
> > social and political implications. In short, it marks a major
> > shift from the
> > end of one era to the beginning of another era. In the great scheme of
> > things, it matters not where one's personal political and economic
beliefs
> > fall in the spectrum, it matters that one understand the shifts of the
> > cycles. Those who learn from history will understand some of the
> > implications of this sea change and be in a position to profit from the
> > opportunities of the new era. It is worth noting that some of
> > today's great
> > family fortunes were built from the wreckage of the 1920's bull market.
> >
> > Earl
> >
> > > I am sure your a cutie but I hardly see how history can be related to
> > > what is happening in the markets. Our generation has shown the world
> > > just a taste of what is yet to come. I think fundamentals look
> > > like they have no consistent validity, not to mention they are
> > > boring. Maybe someone can make that stuff work, but when I was
> > > trading FX some time back you had better pay attention to price
> > > action.
> > >
> > > I watched TV today and they were talking about how all the books are
> > > rigged with public corps, so what's the use in using that data? I
> > > think you just watch tha tube and whatever they put down you buy and
> > > what they tout you sell. Wrong -Right? Logical - Not?
> > >
> > > thx
> > > TG
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
> >
>
>
>
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