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> Actually Ernie I am gambling that someone else has done their home
> work in a business it would take me years to accomplish, if at all. I
> have a talent or have been lucky picking what I gamble on. I'm not
> just playing the slots, I'm more like counting cards. Which is still
> gambling but with an edge. The more negative comments I hear about
> something the harder I look to see if it could come back to the norm.
NW: Back to the "norm"? Gee thanks. I will let you know if and when that
happens.
Seroiusly, I think what is happening is perfectly normal in line with other
major post bubble periods. Go back and research previous bubbles and you
will see that there is usually a long period of "cleansing" which can last
for years if not decades. As for the headlines, they looked recycled from
the early 70s to me. The big issue then was the quality of earnings. So
what's new? The current situation just proves that most of the 90s bull
market was the result of a mass delusion ala smoke and mirrors. It went up
because people were ready and willing to believe. Now we have entered a
period of disillusionment leading hopefully to some semblance of reality and
creibiility. Eventually, perhaps in 10 - 20 years, the US economy will be
again on a solid growth track. Perhaps some of the marvelous technology
which propelled the magical bull market of the 1990s will actually afford a
real opportunity for businesses to reap profits due to real demand.
Please keep in mind that it usually takes decades for most technological
breakthroughs to yeild steady profits. The television was invented in 1929
but there was no profitable business from this for at least 20 years. The
automobile was invented in the 1860s but there was no major industry from
this for at least 40 years. Perhaps the internet age will finally take hold
and avail contrete profits by 2020?
As not to sound too bleak from the investment point of view, I think the
resulting giant trading range, ala 1966 - 1982, will afford plenty of profit
able trading opportunities for those who adopt the appropriate motis
operandi. Those asset classes that have been shunned or ignored for the past
20 - 30 years, should also come to life and afford opportunity for profit.
Normally,
The Norm
>
> Have a Nice Day, tg :)
>
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