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(I shouldn't be doing TA without a license, but here goes.)
QQQ's are currently trading at 28.96. The 9-11 52-wk low is 27.20. Volume is
moderate.
I think there's a decent chance of a "flush" at the 28 level which drives
prices to 25 (or 1000 on the NDX).
1) we've seen consolidation at round (well, multiples of five) numbers like 40,
35, 30 on the QQQ's, and after some consolidation, a failure, and a quick move
down to the next round number. In the current setting, the last place that
people seemed to buy the break out was the 35 level (they've tried it twice and
it failed). 20% down from that level would be (35 - 7) => 28. This is where the
margin players will have a tough time, and we should expect to see high volumes
in the early AM, some day soon, and some further selling (assuming the theory
holds), which would drive prices down to 25 - the next natural place for
consolidation and support.
The lower neckline on the long-term NDX chart is at about 27.25, basis the
QQQ's or just shy of 1100 on the NDX. The 1000 level (QQQ = 25) shows up as the
next line of support below the neckline break.
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