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I, for one, have no interest in what Clyde is doing with the Hurst
work. And no reference of that was made in my post to which is
implied.
Abstracts are valuable in science to see if there is an area of
potential interest. I said I saw none for me.
If Hurst died a millionaire using his work then perhaps I would be
more enthusiastic. But I do not know that to be the case.
No criticism was implied or expressed of anyone on this thread.
The essence of what I said simply is that I agreed with Ira. 90%
accuracy is hogwash profitability in the real world, and that is my
point.
Chill out.
John
------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
Originally From: Clyde Lee <clydelee@xxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: [RT] SP foreacast
Date: 06/02/2002 06:42pm
Valid and well thought out criticism of one's work is something that
we must accept if we attempt to add to the work of others.
There are a total of 223 pages in J.M. Hurst's The Profit Magic of
Stock Transaction Timing.
There is no way that an "abstract" of this book can give the reader
any idea of the amount of information that is contained therein or
provide the basis of some kind of criticism of what I am trying to
do in the area of the Hurst channel.
The reference to "optimization" and "curve fitting" is definitely out
of line with what I have done. "Curve fitting" is exactly what the
whole concept of Fourier analysis and projection is about.
A Fourier analysis of recent price action becomes the basis to
establish the location of the "Hurst Channels" in the near future.
One might be interested in what Hurst has to say about "curve
fitting" and how it can be of significant use in future trading but
to do that one would have to make the effort and take the time
to read Hurst's entire work
What I do not understand is:
Ira's interpretation:
> to draw lines and channels and postulate. He did not use the
channels
> to project price, he used tangential extensions off of offset moving
> averages to project price and time. So anyone who is using the
>channels to project price or direction is going to be in a lot of
trouble.
>You don't need a formula to draw the channels, you . . . . .
I believe is wrong simply because it has been some time since he has
thoroughly reviewed this massive amount of information Hurst provided
and has not understood that Hurst did do projections.
Hurst DID advise a method of projecting where channels were likely
to fall and DID advocate trading at the edges of these channels and
did do an extensive study of such trading with a relatively few
issues.
I am of the opinion that if Hurst were active today and with the
background that he had in the Fourier techniques that he would well
be using those methods to project his channels rather than the
"hand" sketching method that he used successfully.
There is nothing in the way of OPTIMIZATION in any of the studies
of the Hurst channels that I have presented. I have shown methods
whereby we could obtain RATIONAL expectations of the length of
important cycles and methods of extrapolating those into the future.
All I would ask that if criticism is offered that it be done from the
basis of a very thorough study of Hurst's work and specific detail
as to where I am not following the principals he has so eloquently
laid out.
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Clyde Lee Chairman/CEO (Home of SwingMachine)
SYTECH Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
7910 Westglen, Suite 105 Office: (713) 783-9540
Houston, TX 77063 Fax: (713) 783-1092
Details at: www.theswingmachine.com
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----- Original Message -----
From: "John Cappello" <jvc689@xxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, June 02, 2002 4:38 PM
Subject: [RT] SP foreacast
>
> I agree with the Ira post. I have read abstracts of Hurst's work and
> do not believe it is possible to create a mechanical creature that
is
> profitable in real life with a 90% accuracy.Invariably with such a
> system the profit factors fall apart.
>
> Curve fitting and overoptimization has always fallen apart in my
> observations. Plus I do not even know if Hurst traded or was simply
> presenting a hypothesis for testing.
>
> John
>
>
>
> ------------------ Reply Separator --------------------
> Originally From: Ira Tunik <irat@xxxxxxxxx>
> Subject: [RT] SP foracast
> Date: 06/02/2002 01:10pm
>
>
> I don't know what is going on with Yahoogroups, but I sent this out
at
> about 6:30 this morning and it never got posted. Here is the second
> try. Ira.
>
> I read all this ridicule of Hurst and his channels and wonder if
> anyone
> actually bothered to read the book, do the homework, and study the
> results or if they just like
> to draw lines and channels and postulate. He did not use the
channels
> to project price, he used tangential extensions off of offset moving
> averages to project price
> and time. So anyone who is using the channels to project price or
> direction is going to be in a lot of trouble. You don't need a
> formula
> to draw the channels, you
> can get the same effect with a series of straight lines connecting
the
> lows and parallels for the highs. It is not the lines, the
> extensions,
> or the ability to count that will
> make Hurst's system work for you, it is understanding what he is
> trying
> to prove and how it works and what its limitations are. If I am not
> mistaken, and I would
> have to go back to the book to confirm this, that time impacts price
> less then 30% of the time. That leaves you over 70% of the time
> blowing
> in the wind. It is the
> understanding of what is being used and its limitations and
advantages
> that will help you in your trading and not guess work based upon
what
> someone else says it is
> supposed to do. So if you believe that understanding times function
> in
> price action will help your trading by the book and study it. Try
to
> understand what he has
> written not just read the words and look at the charts. Ira.
>
> Adrian Pitt wrote:
>
>
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