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Very interesting to see where the SP cash stopped
today on a bi-sected median line?
Anyone catch the comment (unsubstanciated) on CNBC
(aka CMEC) that there was $2.2 billion on the sidelines.
I am reminded of the statement, never short a dull
market? Something is brewing, rally or quick selloff then rally? My
speculated count could still support a larger pattern ABC down to the cradle of
the median lines (forks) for this 2:b:C (approx 1050)?
don ewers
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Don
Ewers
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, May 24, 2002 11:08 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] SPX index
forecast
A bit of caution on the seasonal (in green), it
is only one from only 1992 to 2001. As always, I would like to state
"seasonals work until they stop working" :-)
Here is a slightly different one (in red) 1985 to
2001(I attached both charts so one can compare). Both positive into mid
July.
don ewers
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
M.
Simms
To: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, May 24, 2002 9:29
AM
Subject: RE: [RT] SPX index
forecast
Yeah, but see
Don's chart with the seasonality plot......a strong positive seasonal
tendency present for the next 2-3 months....
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px">
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Lee Morris [<A
href="mailto:LMorris@xxxxxxxxxx";>mailto:LMorris@xxxxxxxxxx]Sent:
Thursday, May 23, 2002 10:46 PMTo: <A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject:
RE: [RT] SPX index forecast
<FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=2>I think you are right on with both the short and long. The only
difference I have is that on the long range forecast I favor the
possibility of the move from sept to jan as wave A (of B), since jan as
wave B (which is close to ending) and the next major rally wave C of B
then the final down move to at or below sept would be wave C of a zig zag.
Practically it does not change how I would trade regardless of if you are
right and this is a baby bull or the second option that this is a bear mkt
rally. Either way the at a min the upcoming rally should be very powerful.
The only issue I have is with the VIX and P/C ratio, at the current levels
I do not think that we have the fuel for this kind of rally so I would
like to see the final move to your target of 1030 be fast and furious to
scare some people.
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Hill, Ernie
[mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002
6:55 PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject:
[RT] SPX index forecast
<FONT color=black face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: windowtext; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">I
am pretty new to this list and this is my first attempt at a
contribution. I know that some of you are professionals and I welcome
your comments and insights to my
analysis.
<FONT color=black face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: windowtext; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT color=black face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: windowtext; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">It
appears that the high turning point in the SPX that some of you were
anticipating has been made. On 5-17 we closed at 1106.59 and then again
touched that level on an intra-day basis the next day. I believe there
is a reasonable possibility that the market could move back up near the
turn high over the next couple of days before resuming the move down. I
believe there is an even smaller chance that the market may even
slightly exceed the high and actually make the turn as late as
5-28.
<FONT color=black face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: windowtext; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT color=black face=Arial
size=3><SPAN
style="COLOR: windowtext; FONT-SIZE: 12pt; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">My
short term forecast<FONT
color=black face=Arial size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: windowtext; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">:
<FONT color=black face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: windowtext; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT color=black face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: windowtext; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">I
am anticipating the next low turn to occur within four days of 6-4. My
target price range is 1027 to 1034. 1.382 times the move from 5-7 to
5-17 yields 79.51 points subtract this number from the high of 1106.59
and we arrive at the low target of 1027.08. A 61.8% retracement of the
move from 9-21 to 1-9 yields a target price of 1033.46. If this
projected down move does terminate in the projected target range, it has
the potential to be the end point of the correction for the entire move
from 9-21 to 1-9. And could set the stage for a
significant and sustainable move up<SPAN
style="COLOR: blue">.<SPAN
class=EmailStyle19><SPAN
style="COLOR: blue; FONT-SIZE: 10pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">My longer term
forecast:<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">Normally my
technical focus is on a much shorter time frame, but when I saw that we
might be about to complete the correction of the move from 9-21 to 1-9,
I thought I would take a little longer term
perspective.
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">On the
attached and or pictured chart (I will attempt to do both) I have drawn
a trend line from the bottom of the first move down from the March 2000
high connecting lows made in March of 2001 and September of 2001. I have
also drawn a trend line from the top of the first upward reaction to the
initial down move from the March 2000 high and connected it to the high
made in May of 2001.
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">As you can see
these trend lines clearly define the trading channel of the bear market.
Looking at this chart the first indication we have that the bear market
is over, is the penetration of the top trend line and the fact that the
market has traded outside the bear market channel for most of this
year.
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">My current
time frame for the next low turning point is within four days of
6-4. <SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">This time
frame will be reached on this chart in <FONT face=Arial
size=2>the next one to
two bars. Notice where my target price range (1034-1027) for the next
low turning point falls on this chart. If during the time frame of the
next one to two bars my projected price range <SPAN
class=GramE>is met it will fall just above the upper trend line
at 1025.
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">From an
Elliott wave standpoint the move from 9-21 to 1-9 could be interpreted
as a wave one impulse wave, followed by a simple A-B-C zig zag
correction as <SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">labeled on the
chart. <SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">With
the <SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">"C" wave
terminating at my projected <FONT color=black face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">low
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">turning point,
completing wave two, and setting the stage for the usually dynamic
impulse wave three to begin.
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">In conclusion
what I see in the chart patterns and in my analysis <SPAN
class=GramE><SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">is the early
stages<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"> of a
new B<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">ull market,
and an excellent buying opportunity dead
ahead.
<SPAN
style="COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt">E
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><IMG alt=DGLChart height=600 id=_x0000_i1025
width=800>
<SPAN
style="FONT-FAMILY: Arial; FONT-SIZE: 10pt"> <FONT
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