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I am
basically agreeing with that plot only after a quick pullback to get the vix and
p/c in better positions
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: M. Simms
[mailto:prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Friday, May 24, 2002 10:29
AMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: RE: [RT] SPX
index forecast
Yeah, but see
Don's chart with the seasonality plot......a strong positive seasonal tendency
present for the next 2-3 months....
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid">
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Lee Morris
[mailto:LMorris@xxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 10:46
PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: RE: [RT] SPX
index forecast
I
think you are right on with both the short and long. The only difference I
have is that on the long range forecast I favor the possibility of the move
from sept to jan as wave A (of B), since jan as wave B (which is close to
ending) and the next major rally wave C of B then the final down move to at
or below sept would be wave C of a zig zag. Practically it does not change
how I would trade regardless of if you are right and this is a baby bull or
the second option that this is a bear mkt rally. Either way the at a min the
upcoming rally should be very powerful. The only issue I have is with the
VIX and P/C ratio, at the current levels I do not think that we have the
fuel for this kind of rally so I would like to see the final move to your
target of 1030 be fast and furious to scare some people.
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Hill, Ernie
[mailto:ernie.hill@xxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Thursday, May 23, 2002 6:55
PMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: [RT] SPX
index forecast
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">I
am pretty new to this list and this is my first attempt at a contribution.
I know that some of you are professionals and I welcome your comments and
insights to my analysis.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">It
appears that the high turning point in the SPX that some of you were
anticipating has been made. On 5-17 we closed at 1106.59 and then again
touched that level on an intra-day basis the next day. I believe there is
a reasonable possibility that the market could move back up near the turn
high over the next couple of days before resuming the move down. I believe
there is an even smaller chance that the market may even slightly exceed
the high and actually make the turn as late as
5-28.
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=3><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-ansi-font-size: 12.0pt">My
short term forecast<FONT
face=Arial color=black size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">:
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: windowtext; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">I
am anticipating the next low turn to occur within four days of 6-4. My
target price range is 1027 to 1034. 1.382 times the move from 5-7 to 5-17
yields 79.51 points subtract this number from the high of 1106.59 and we
arrive at the low target of 1027.08. A 61.8% retracement of the move from
9-21 to 1-9 yields a target price of 1033.46. If this projected down move
does terminate in the projected target range, it has the potential to be
the end point of the correction for the entire move from 9-21 to 1-9.
And could set the stage for a significant and
sustainable move up<SPAN
style="COLOR: blue">.<SPAN
class=EmailStyle19><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: blue; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">My longer term
forecast:<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Normally my
technical focus is on a much shorter time frame, but when I saw that we
might be about to complete the correction of the move from 9-21 to 1-9, I
thought I would take a little longer term
perspective.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">On the attached
and or pictured chart (I will attempt to do both) I have drawn a trend
line from the bottom of the first move down from the March 2000 high
connecting lows made in March of 2001 and September of 2001. I have also
drawn a trend line from the top of the first upward reaction to the
initial down move from the March 2000 high and connected it to the high
made in May of 2001.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">As you can see
these trend lines clearly define the trading channel of the bear market.
Looking at this chart the first indication we have that the bear market is
over, is the penetration of the top trend line and the fact that the
market has traded outside the bear market channel for most of this
year.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">My current time
frame for the next low turning point is within four days of
6-4. <SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">This time frame
will be reached on this chart in <FONT face=Arial
size=2>the next one to
two bars. Notice where my target price range (1034-1027) for the next low
turning point falls on this chart. If during the time frame of the next
one to two bars my projected price range is met
it will fall just above the upper trend line at 1025.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">From an Elliott
wave standpoint the move from 9-21 to 1-9 could be interpreted as a wave
one impulse wave, followed by a simple A-B-C zig zag correction
as <SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">labeled on the
chart. <SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">With
the <SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">"C" wave
terminating at my projected <FONT face=Arial color=black
size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">low
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">turning point,
completing wave two, and setting the stage for the usually dynamic impulse
wave three to begin.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">In conclusion
what I see in the chart patterns and in my analysis <SPAN
class=GramE><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">is the early
stages<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> of a
new B<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">ull market, and
an excellent buying opportunity dead ahead.
<SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: black; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">E
<IMG
width=800>
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style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"> <FONT
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