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----- Original Message -----
From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Wednesday, May 22, 2002 2:22 PM
Subject: RE: [RT] M3 money supply
> Why ?
> Why would the fed be reining in the supply at this stage of a
> tenuous-at-best recovery....
> and a continuing IT depression ?
Just a guess... Greenspin is a market oriented guy and Gold has been
going up and dollar has been weaker indicating the global economiy is
anticipating a recovery or more inflation for the US. The Fed can't afford
to wait for economic data which is often 3-6 months behind the economic
curve.
Last fall, I forecasted that the economy would show signs of a bottom
circa Nov. 1 and that the economists would confirm the same in February
2002, which is exactly what happpened. I think we are now in a 'tweener
economy, that is it is in between recession and growth so it will meander
for many months. The tweener is a consolidation between the Nov. 2001 low
and the next low which is due late 2002 or early 2003, making the current
post bubble era a classic double bottom recession pattern. All of this puts
the Fed in a very difficult position, as they are damned if they do and
damned if they don't. With the economy in such a precarious position, just
about anything the Fed does will be too much. On the other hand, if they do
what is probably the economically prudent strategy, which is to basically
cast their fate to the wind and let things ride, this would result in
political suicde. It's a no win situation for the Fed. Greespan should look
to collect his pension, as he has stayed too long at the fair.
Cheers,
Norman
Cheers,
Norman
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: fsimms [mailto:fsimms@xxxxxxx]
> > Sent: Wednesday, May 22, 2002 10:49 AM
> > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Subject: [RT] M3 money supply
> >
> >
> > Ben I wouldn't mind seeing one of your great money supply charts;) I
> > see the fed is reducing supply again.
> >
> > Bob
> >
> >
> >
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> >
> >
> >
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http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
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