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A Tight Planetary Cluster and
the Pregnancy Cycle (4/2002)
In mid-May there is a very rare
tight planetary cluster,
comparable constellations could only be observed a couple of times
this century, each time with bearish implications for the stock
markets and partly also indicating major political crises. But first
I'd like to thank Arch Crawford and Ray Merriman for calling
attention to this very important celestial phenomenon. The dates of
the previous instances were:
March 1940: shortly after the outbreak of World War II,
the Dow Jones lost 25% from 4/9-6/11/1940---
February 1962: The Dow Jones plummeted by 27% from
3/16-6/26/1962, in October the Cuban Missile Crisis almost
triggered a global nuclear war, 1962 probably the most dangerous
year in the 20th century.---
August 1987 (the so-called "harmonic convergence"
already predicted by the Mayans).During the famous 1987 crash
the Dow Jones tumbled by 36% from 8/26-10/20/1987.---
May 2000The crash after the technology bubble peak
in March 2000, the Nasdaq 100 index lost 36% from 3/24-5/23/2000.
Moreover, I want to explain more on the cyclical background of
the expected slump: the 40-week
"pregnancy cycle" which is the dominant medium- to
longer-term cycle most of the time. I call it "pregnancy cycle"
because the average length is exactly mirroring the duration of the
human pregnancy of 9 months plus some days which is hardly a
coincidence and probably the reason it is a very reliable and
precise cycle.
Typically, a cycle is counted from trough to trough because at
the bottoms the emotions (fear) are strongest, the only exception
are commodities because in these markets tops (not bottoms) are
characterized by excessive fear. The last trough of the pregnancy
cycle was 9/21/2001, the
next one is due in June-
July. The first 10-20% of a cycle (in this case 4-8
weeks) are almost always very bullish while the last 10-20% are
almost always very bearish. Below you see the ideal shape of the
cycle with an overlay of the S&P 500. Note the fit has been
almost perfect so far, week 31 is already completed so that we are
entering the 4-8 week "hard down"-stage
<IMG height=183 alt="40w-zyklus.gif (2728 Byte)"
src="http://www.amanita.at/images/charts/40w-zyklus.gif"; width=300>
The Amanita newsletter sent out on February 21 contained the
forecast that an intermediate-term bottom was due - which was
correct to the day. At this time my subscribers were already
informed about the next major high which was projected for March
20/21. As you probably know, the top came in just one day earlier on
March 19. The next major turning date (+/- 1 day) which is the
bottom of the pregnancy cycle (the next good buying opportunity) is
reserved to the subscribers of Amanita Market Forecasting.
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